By Edward Egros
FOX Sports MLB Betting Analyst
The Professor has a stern warning for today’s class: before we create our own trade hype, it’s important to take a deep breath before looking for the close bet value.
Take last season: The Dodgers took on Max Scherzer and Trea Turner but didn’t win the pennant, despite both playing exceptionally well. The Giants brought in Kris Bryant, and although the ball club won 107 games, they failed to get past the National League Division Series.
However, the successes were there. The Braves needed their midseason acquisition in Jorge Soler to win it all (.300/.391/.800 in the World Series). The Astros made less splashy moves for their bullpen, but they were in September and October still finished ninth in MLB in strikeouts per nine innings (9.38) and eighth in xFIP (4.23). My main point is always to take the hype with a grain of salt.
So now that you’ve done your breathing exercises, let’s break down recent trades, how they affect betting odds, and whether it’s worth investing in this team’s championship odds.
P Ludwig Castle to the Mariners +3000 at FOX Bet (Wager $10 to win $310)
As we’ve discussed in this section, there’s no team I’ve been more interested in studying at close than the Mariners.
Sure enough, they’re the first to make an earth-shattering move, bringing in Cincinnati starting pitcher Luis Castillo for a couple of talented prospects.
From a betting perspective, the Seattle move took a lot of value off the futures markets. To win the American League, M odds decreased from +2000 to +1400, and increased from +4000 to +3000 to win the World Series.
Castillo throws fireballs as his fastball averages nearly 97 miles per hour. It might not have much movement, but it doesn’t have to, with an opponent’s batting average of .124 and a strikeout rate of 45.5%. Oddly enough, however, he has had more successful seasons, such as in 2020 with a 2.65 FIP and more than 11 strikeouts per nine innings. Anyway, he’s a stallion who will help the Mariners a lot at the track.
The market doesn’t have many starting guns available, and Seattle needed one, so this looks like a win for both teams. And given that the Mariners’ playoff drought has lasted longer than any North American team in the big four men’s sports, it was a move they had to make with a high probability of success.
LF Andreas Benintendi to the Yankees +370 at FOX Bet (Wager $10 to win $47)
The Bronx Bombers ran away with the AL East and are now big favorites to win the pennant. But that move has improved the Yankees’ chances of winning the World Series, from second-shortest at +400 to shortest with the Dodgers at +350.
Baseball reference charts are gaining above average by position groups, and the Yankees are 10th in left field, their second-worst finish before shortstop. Now New York goes from Joey Gallo, who ranks second among all thugs with at least 250 plate appearances (38.1%), to Andrew Benintendi with the 20th lowest rate (13.3%). He doesn’t have much power, but knows how to get to the base with a .387 OBP. In summary, the Yankees got a lot better on this trade.
P Josh Hader to the Padres +2200 at FOX Bet (Wager $10 to win $230)
Relief pitching isn’t San Diego’s biggest need as of deadline, as their bullpen ranks seventh in collective fielding independent pitching. But bringing on someone of Josh Haders caliber to be closer to the ball club is something the Padres just couldn’t pass up, as the Padres have more than enough prospects to lead the way for Milwaukee. The Dodgers also have such a massive lead in the NL West that the odds for the Padres to win the pennant have not changed (+1000 on FOX Bet). World Series futures haven’t moved for San Diego either, as they currently sit at +2200.
One reason for the consistency could be that Hader has been unpredictable this season. In every season from 2018 through 2021, his expected batting average was in the 99th percentile of all pitchers in the bigs. However, his home runs per nine innings this season are the highest of all time (1.85).
Overall, few players can force swings and misses more often, and few can throw faster, so the potential for Hader to dominate is there. Perhaps more importantly, San Diego has a lot more prospects than currency, so it’s possible they’re not done trading yet. Keep an eye out for the Padres who may also be after Juan Soto or Wilson Contreras. If SD lands another big fish, watch out for his World Series odds to move significantly.
Edward Egros is a sports analysis broadcaster/writer, sports betting analyst, data scientist and Associate Professor of Statistics at Pepperdine University. These passions drove him to become a cold brew fan. Edward previously worked for local television, most notably at Fox’s Dallas affiliate, covering Rangers, Cowboys and high school football. Follow him on Twitter @EdWithSports.
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