Justin Verlander #35 of the Houston Astros pitches against the Texas Rangers during the first inning at Globe Life Field on April 28, 2022 in Arlington, Texas.
Photo by Ron Jenkins/Getty Images via AFP.
Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer have seized the top spots in the AL and NL Cy Young markets. We examine the MLB Cy Young futures markets to determine which players represent value with their current prices.
Fans of the Detroit Tigers should look away, this one might sting. We now have a new favorite in the AL Cy Young race, as Justin Verlander has replaced Gerrit Cole at the top of the odds board. As if this is not painful enough for Tigers fans, Max Scherzer is the short shot for the NL Cy Young award.
In placing futures bets, you must always consider two factors: will this player actually win the market, and are their odds only going to become shorter from here on out, relative to the early number? If the answer is yes to both of these questions, then you should consider purchasing that specific player.
In this article, we analyze the AL and NL Cy Young futures markets in search of value in the current numbers.
MLB Cy Young Odds: AL
SEE ALSO: World Series Odds and Picks
AL Cy Young Best Bets
- Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays (+1000 via PointsBet)
AL Cy Young Picks: Favorites
Justin Verlander, Houston Astros (+650 via FanDuel)
Having started the season with odds of +2000, Verlander is now as short as +500 at PointsBet. Verlander is the consensus favorite at the sportsbooks, but this is really just brand name bias for the Astros pitcher. He has very modest K/9 statistics, and there are plenty of other starting pitchers who have not won the award that voters would like to recognize. I believe this will be the lowest price we will see on Verlander this season, and I anticipate it to increase over time.
Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees (+850 via FanDuel)
Cole opened as the favorite and had odds as low as +350 at several sportsbooks. Last season, Cole’s odds were never longer than +500, and that is not the case this season. The odds of Cole winning the AL Cy Young have already climbed to +850.
Shane Bieber, Cleveland Guardians (+850 via FanDuel)
As a result of Bieber’s declining velocity, his K/9 is the lowest it has been since he joined the Guardians in 2018. Despite his decline in velocity and strikeout numbers, he has largely gotten away with it early on because he has faced some of the worst offenses in MLB. Bieber is someone I intend to fade moving forward, as his price should increase significantly.
Dylan Cease, Chicago White Sox (+900 via Caesars)
Cease was a popular choice for the AL Cy Young award when the season began, but there was a persistent narrative that his price point was too low at +1800. He has only cut this number in half since the season began, and is currently trading at +900. You will need to keep an eye on Cease for the AL Cy Young award.
Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels (+1000 via FanDuel)
I began writing this article with the intention of focusing on the purchase of Ohtani at +2000 to win the AL Cy Young award. I changed my position once Ohtani’s odds decreased from +2000 to +1000 after he put on a show at Fenway Park. The +1000 seems a little short at the moment since he will lack volume but I will say I prefer his +1000 price point for winning the Cy Young over the +350 for winning the MVP.
Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays (+1000 via PointsBet)
Gausman is leading all AL starting pitchers with an fWAR of 1.9 and it is not even close. Gausman’s splitter has been virtually unhittable, and he continues to dominate the strike zone by refusing to walk a single batter. I’m on the Gausman bandwagon, and the +1000 available at PointsBet still represents some value, considering that other sportsbooks are offering as low as +500 on Gausman.
Kevin Gausman joins Cy Young (1906) as the only pitchers (min. 20 IP) to begin a season with 5 straight starts of 0 BB and 0 HR allowed in the World Series era (since 1903)! pic.twitter.com/2YvmsdJjoO
— MLB Stats (@MLBStats) May 1, 2022
AL Cy Young Picks: Contenders
Alek Manoah, Toronto Blue Jays (+1300 via Caesars)
Manoah has the highest handle percentage of any starting pitcher in the AL Cy Young market. We have seen his price point decrease significantly from +3000 at the beginning of the season to +1300 due to his liability and wiffle ball slider. It is possible that you are a year ahead of the game by purchasing a Manoah ticket this season, as I think he will take more time to become one of the contenders in this market.
Shane McClanahan, Tampa Bay Rays (+1400 via Caesars)
This is one of those young pitchers that I believe voters would prefer to reward over Verlander. McClanahan has electric stuff, as evidenced by his strikeout numbers and xFIP of 1.8. McClanahan opened at +2500 and is now trading at +1400 at most sportsbooks.
Lucas Giolito, Chicago White Sox (+2500 via BetMGM)
At the beginning of the season, Giolito was as short as +800 to win the AL Cy Young award. In the wake of missing a few starts due to injury, Giolito’s odds have increased to +2500 at Caesars. At +800, I was not interested in Giolito, but the adjusted price of +2500 has me intrigued. I will add Giolito to my watch list.
Logan Gilbert, Seattle Mariners (+2500 via DraftKings)
Gilbert was not even included in the initial release of the AL Cy Young odds, and now he is listed as low as +1400 at Caesars Sportsbook. Gilbert was named the AL Pitcher of the Month for April, and this has resulted in a move in his odds. Despite being an excellent young pitcher, I am not interested in purchasing Gilbert at +2500.
AL Cy Young Picks: Longshots
Michael Kopech, Chicago White Sox (+4000 via FanDuel)
Kopech’s odds have dropped from +6000 to +4000, but volume will remain his main concern in order to compete for this award. Expect this price point to continue to shorten if Kopech reaches a K/9 that we know he is capable of.
Noah Syndergaard, Los Angeles Angels (+4000 via Caesars)
As someone who invested in Syndergaard at +10000 to win the AL Cy Young award well before the season began, I am pleased with the movement in his odds. The odds for Syndergaard are as low as +2000 at PointsBet. What I do not like is the advanced metrics and low strikeout rate we are seeing from Syndergaard. In order to consider investing in Syndergaard at +4000, you must see the strikeout numbers increase.
Robbie Ray, Seattle Mariners (+4000 via FanDuel)
Ray had far too short of a price when he opened at around +900 to repeat as the AL Cy Young Award winner and we indicated that at the time. In Ray’s case, a price point of +4000 is more appropriate, but with his velocity down and strikeout numbers down, this price will only continue to increase. In this market, Ray is not someone you should be backing.
Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins (+5500 via FanDuel)
You have my attention when you are striking out batters in a turtleneck. In the same manner as Gilbert, he was not on the odds board when the season began, but is now listed at +5500. Although Ryan has been impressive for the Twins, I’m more interested in his AL Rookie of the Year odds than his Cy Young odds.
Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers (+6000 via FanDuel)
Due to the limited number of spots available to highlight my Detroit Tigers this season, I will do so here. Skubal has a low xFIP of 2.44 and is among the top starting pitchers in the AL in terms of fWAR sitting third. Thus, it is quite surprising to see his odds drift backward from +4000 to +6000. It is shocking to see his odds go the wrong way when he is exceeding expectations.
SEE ALSO: American League Player Awards
MLB Cy Young Odds: NL
NL Cy Young Best Bets
- Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies (+4000 via FanDuel)
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NL Cy Young Picks: Favorites
Max Scherzer, New York Mets (+500 via FanDuel)
The 37-year-old pitcher has picked up where he left off with the Mets and continues to dominate. The problem with betting on Scherzer is that he was phenomenal last season but only placed 3rd in the voting. There may be voter fatigue with Scherzer, and at +500, I would rather invest elsewhere.
Corbin Burnes, Milwaukee Brewers (+550 via Caesars)
In a similar way to Scherzer, I believe Burnes will have to contend with voter fatigue in order to win back-to-back NL Cy Young Awards. Burnes’ odds have decreased from +850 to +550, but his performance this season is not necessarily better than last year’s. I do not intend to back Burnes to win the NL Cy Young award twice in a row.
Carlos Rodon, San Francisco Giants (+700 via FanDuel)
It has been no problem for Rodon to adjust to life on the West Coast with the Giants. Among starting pitchers in the NL, the left-hander ranks near the top on both K/9 and fWAR. Despite the fact that Rodon was not even on the board when the odds opened, he is now the favorite at Caesars with odds of +500.
SEE ALSO: MLB MVP Odds and Picks
NL Cy Young Picks: Contenders
Walker Buehler, Los Angeles Dodgers (+1200 via FanDuel)
Buehler’s odds have increased a bit since opening at +900, to +1200, and for a good reason. For the second consecutive season, Buehler’s K/9 has decreased and he is not off to a Cy Young-like start. Buehler does not have the advanced metrics to win a Cy Young Award. Before you consider investing in him, wait for his odds to increase.
Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers (+1600 via PointsBet)
Although Kershaw’s early statistics are impressive, I will not join the bandwagon in 2022. In order for him to be ready for the postseason, the Dodgers will manage his innings throughout the season. His time has passed for this award and I am interested in investing my money elsewhere.
Brandon Woodruff, Milwaukee Brewers (+2000 via FanDuel)
The sportsbooks have increased Woodruff’s odds from +1300 to +2000, which is an interesting move. Woodruff’s K/9 is higher than last season, so how can he be moved back? Although Woodruff has an inflated ERA which may be what they are judging him off of, his advanced metrics suggest that he will be able to improve on this number.
Max Fried, Atlanta Braves (+2000 via FanDuel)
Fried is a solid MLB pitcher, but he does not have the strikeout statistics that are necessary to win the Cy Young award in 2022. Fried’s odds were initially set at +2500, but have now been shortened to +2000. Based on his statistics, Fried does not strike me as a candidate for the Cy Young Award in the National League.
Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants (+2500 via FanDuel)
The sportsbooks have very different opinions regarding Webb, as FanDuel prices Webb at +2500 and PointsBet prices Webb at +1500. While I like Webb, right now I am unable to consider buying him for the NL Cy Young due to his low K/9 of 5.93. He has yet to demonstrate the type of overpowering stuff needed to win a Cy Young award.
Pablo Lopez, Miami Marlins (+2500 via FanDuel)
We saw Lopez open the year with odds of +4000 to win the NL Cy Young Award. Now after an impressive April which saw Lopez get married and win the NL Pitcher of the Month award, we now see Lopez trading at +2500. Lopez is off to a fast start, but at this point, I am not interested in investing in him.
Joe Musgrove, San Diego Padres (+2500 via PointsBet)
Musgrove remains near the top of the odds board in 2022 for the NL Cy Young Award. However, I do not believe he possesses the extra gear necessary to push himself over the top and win the award. Since I do not see Musgrove’s odds getting shorter, I do not wish to back him. I believe his +2500 pricing is accurate.
Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies (+3300 via PointsBet)
There was no one who was more penalized than Wheeler for their slow start to the season. Wheeler’s odds were revised from +1200 to +3300, which is a significant move at this early stage of the season for someone who placed second in the voting last year. At the beginning of the season, his velocity and strikeout numbers were down, but he has begun to improve.
You should keep an eye on him in his next couple of starts for the Phillies. If he looks like old Wheeler, then +3300 might be a number you want to purchase.
Julio Urias, Los Angeles Dodgers (+3500 via Caesars)
Urias has not been able to deliver the season I had hoped for. Urias’s ERA is low, however, his advanced metrics are not what you would expect. Prior to the start of the season, I had purchased Urias at +3500. The outlook for this ticket is not promising.
Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies (+4000 via FanDuel)
Wheeler is not the only Phillies starting pitcher to experience increased odds of winning the NL Cy Young. Nola opened with odds of +2500 and he is currently trading at odds of +4000 at FanDuel. The sportsbooks’ move is intriguing as Nola has a K/9 above 10 and his lowest xFIP of his career at 2.56. Now that Nola’s price has been adjusted to +4000, I am purchasing the Phillies right-hander.
Kyle Wright, Atlanta Braves (+4000 via FanDuel)
Wright has been outstanding for the Braves so far this season, but you cannot even find Wright’s odds for the NL Cy Young Award at most sportsbooks. Wright is another player who was not available to bet on when the season began, and several sportsbooks have kept him off their boards. You may want to add Wright to your watchlist given his K/9, xFIP, and the current price of +4000.
Eric Lauer, Milwaukee Brewers (+4000 via FanDuel)
Early in the season, Lauer has been straight dealing, and he leads all NL pitchers in K/9 at 12.74. You read that right, Lauer leads all starting pitchers in K/9 in the NL. If you are considering purchasing Lauer at +4000, he is still off the board at several sportsbooks. I would like to see where they open him and perhaps we can catch a longer number. Lauer definitely has my attention in this market.
SEE ALSO: National League Player Awards
NL Cy Young Picks: Longshots
Sean Manaea, San Diego Padres (+5500 via FanDuel)
After the Padres acquired him from the Athletics, Manaea has performed well, but he is not really in the running for the Cy Young award. Manaea’s odds have increased from +4000 to +5500 since the start of the season.
Jacob deGrom, New York Mets (+6000 via PointsBet)
You should not lose sight of deGrom’s odds during the course of the season. There are few pitchers capable of winning the Cy Young award with a low number of innings and pure dominance, but deGrom is one of them. He was adjusted to +3500 at PointsBet after his injury, and this is where he remains, but sportsbooks such as FanDuel have continued to push him back to +6000. When we have a set date for when he will return, I will be purchasing the highest deGrom number I can find.
Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers (+7500 via Caesars)
Peralta exhibits electric stuff, as he continues to rank near the top of the NL in K/9. However, his lack of innings and volume poses a problem. Advanced metrics indicate that his statistics will improve as the season progresses, so he should be added to your watchlist, especially at the price of +7500.
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