With the calendar shifting to 2023, we’re currently closer to halfway through the NBA season than we are to All-Star Weekend.
It can be argued that meaningful basketball doesn’t start until February, but it took most teams the first half to figure out if they’re contenders or contenders.
The sample size is more than sufficient. Enough time has passed for the team narratives to swing from end to end.
Here are some key observations for the New Year.
LEAGUE WIDE NOTES
Grit and grind grizzlies
In the first 14 games of the season, Memphis went 9-5 with Jaren Jackson Jr. recovering from a stress fracture in his foot.
He returned to the front end of his recovery timeline on November 15, helping the Grizzlies win back a half game from the No. 1 seed.
They were 14-8 since his return.
In case you missed it, Jackson Jr. has catapulted himself to pole position for Defensive Player of the Year at +155 on FanDuel.
He was available on +4900 on the morning of his season debut.
Experts would argue that he only plays 25.8mpg and commits too many fouls to make an impact.
But the correlation of his return to their team’s defensive rating is hard to ignore.
The Grizzlies were 20th in defensive standings prior to his debut.
Since November 15th they have the best defense.
Whether he deserves all the credit remains a matter of debate, but his presence has allowed teammates Steven Adams and Dillon Brooks to play their roles more effectively.
In over 18 games together on the court this season, these three have a combined defensive rating of 101.0.
They were particularly effective at neutralizing large men. There are 10 games in a row in which the opposing center has gone under their point support.
The Game: Subscores on opposing centers against Memphis
Philly flies under the radar
I don’t want to empathize with Sixers fans, but if it weren’t for Brooklyn’s current 11-game winning streak, there would be more noise about their recent success.
They were 10-2 in their last 12 games.
Nine games into the season, James Harden went down with a torn foot tendon and didn’t miss a month of action.
On November 19, Tyrese Maxey fell to the ground with a broken foot and left Philadelphia without the second- and third-best players in the lineup.
Joel Embiid missed the next four games with a metatarsal sprain that left the Sixers paper thin.
Incredibly, without their three stars, they went 3-1 up and seemed to have a turnaround in their season from that point on.
Embiid has quietly lobbied at both ends of the court.
He has the fifth best defensive rating of players averaging 30 or more minutes per game.
He is second in the standings at 33.5 ppg, 0.8 behind Luka Doncic.
While their schedule was on the easier side, they were in the top-10 in both offense and defense during that series.
If you look at their upcoming January schedule, the majority of their opponents are below .500.
With all three stars back in the lineup, this is the final call to nab Philly at a futures market if you’re so inclined.
The game: Sixers in all futures markets
PLAYER PROPS
Siakam The saving grace
Toronto Raptors fans have been muting their inconsistent play all season.
They were below average and not much went right.
Only two positive things stand out:
1. OG Anunoby has earned the right to take part in the debate about Defensive Player of the Year.
2. Pascal Siakam was a hallmark of offensive consistency.
Toronto’s record might hold him back, but Siakam is leaning toward another All-NBA team pick.
For the past month, he’s brought his hard hat and lunchbox to every game averaging 28.5 ppg, 7.7 rpg, and 6.6 apg.
Of those 15 games, he has 25 or more points and 6 or more assists in 12 of them.
Rinse, recycle, repeat.
His rebound and defensive production may fluctuate, but he will give you the same offensive production every night and can be bet accordingly.
Odds makers take note of this. His point prop in their last game was set at 26.5.
The Game: Siakam 25+ points and 6+ assists, single or parlayed
Top heavy scoring continues
Who knows what’s in the coolers on the sidelines. Maybe everyone has a bottle of Michael’s Secret Stuff, but the league’s top scorers are gone for the holidays.
Last week, 12 players averaged over 30 points per game. Doncic leads the field with an average of 46.4 points in his last four games. No big deal.
Sometimes I wonder if NBA fans have blunted those explosive scoring nights.
You hear “old heads” out there complaining that “dropping 40 used to mean something.”
It certainly caught my attention when Giannis Antetokounmpo’s point prop was set to 36.5.
The crazy thing was I would have taken the over if he had played.
This year’s MVP race is so entertaining with around five to eight players worthy of raising the trophy.
Don’t hesitate to stack extreme results from superstar players, especially when the matchup makes sense.
Back to Doncic, he’s played Houston (the third-worst defense) three times in the past two weeks.
His floors – 35 points, 8 rebounds, 8 assists
His averages – 41.3 ppg, 10.7 rpg, 10.3 apg
The Game: Build breakaway SGPs for Superstars against weak defenses
FUTURES
division winner
Although there was a lot of basketball play, some of the division awards went through great ups and downs.
There’s still half a season to go and a lot of crazy things could still happen.
The first price jump I want to mention – the Boston Celtics were -3000 to win the Atlantic in the second week of December.
That was right at the start of Brooklyn’s 11-game winning streak and right around the time Boston was losing 5 of 6 games.
At this point, the Celtics were 4.5 games ahead of Brooklyn and 6.0 ahead of Philly.
Fast forward to today, they are a step ahead of the nets and only cost -300.
Brooklyn was available to win the Atlantic at +2800. They are only available today for +300 on FanDuel.
The second division I want to highlight is the Pacific.
A month ago, Steph Curry made strides in the MVP talk and the Phoenix Suns welcomed back Chris Paul after a long hiatus.
Lost in the mix were the LA Clippers, who have been absent from their two stars – Kawhi Leonard and Paul George – for an extended period of time.
At the time, LA was +1200 to win the division.
Skip to 2023 and the Clippers are just 50 cents from the Suns to win the Pacific.
What happened?
health happiness.
Unfortunately, Curry suffered a shoulder injury and Devin Booker will be out for at least four weeks with a groin strain.
Leonard and George get back in shape over the holidays.
Some bets may seem like lockdowns today, but you never know when and if a big trade or catastrophic injury can turn the tide in one of these markets.
Sixth Man Climber
As for darts, the sixth man of the year talk is bringing some new players into the mix.
At the top are still Russell Westbrook, Jordan Poole and Malcolm Brogdon at the top, but in the class directly below, a few names demand your attention.
Former Raptor, Norman Powell, was the sixth shortest option prior to opening night for this award.
With a great role in the season, he fell flat on his face for the first month and was subsequently injured, missing for over two weeks. He was at his worst for 6MOY around +12000.
He returned to the lineup just before Christmas, just as Leonard and George were also recovering.
He’s averaging 15.7 ppg post-injury and could get a big boost if the Clippers get on a winning streak.
He is currently listed at +1400.
Another player to emerge is Malik Monk, with the Sacramento Kings exceeding expectations this season.
The Kings have become an offensive force in the league and Monk is responsible for giving them a pull off the bench.
He transitions out, heels opponents, and is part of Sacramento’s newfound run-and-gun identity.
He wasn’t even listed for the season opener and now sits at +1600, the sixth option.
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