To cheer! MVP Bryce Harper is set to return to the Phillies Tuesday, 159 days after his Tommy John surgery, and we have Phillies predictions.
Philadelphia needs him. After a month of play, the Phillies are 15-15 in fourth place in the NL East. The defending champion looks dull.
So can Harper be a savior? And if so, is it worth taking a chance with the Phillies in the division, league, or World Series futures markets?
While it’s tempting to buy low from the Phillies just before their best player returns from a long-term injury, the question is more complex. It requires a deep dive into the state of the Phillies in 2023.
Return of Bryce Harper Phillies: what does that mean?
Will Harper’s return help the Phillies?
yes duh He’s one of the best players of our generation.
The bigger question, though, is: how exactly is Harper helping the Phillies?
The obvious answer lies in the lineup, as the Phillies at-bat were severely underperforming. The Phillies rank among the top 10 worst MLB teams in terms of average exit speed and hard hit rate, putting their current xwOBA just ahead of the notoriously soft-hitting Marlins.
From a plate discipline standpoint, there is a great need as the Phillies have the fourth-lowest walk rate (7%) and fourth-highest chase rate (31.5%) among MLB teams.
So if you put a guy with a career ISO of 0.243 and a walk rate of 14.9% in the middle of the lineup, those problems will be fixed immediately.
On a side note, I’m a bit concerned about Harper’s drastic drop in walk rate during the 2022 season (10.7%). It’s easy to attribute his general problems (a 138 wRC+ struggles with him) to injuries, but I’m not sure why he was swinging more than usual (his pursuit rate was up over 10%). But let’s not jump to conclusions until we see a completely sane version of him this year.
Harper’s return should also strengthen the other guys in the lineup. Trea Turner is waiting to break out (83 OPS+) while Kyle Schwarber needs to see a few more hits (.234 BABIP with a .208 average).
Ultimately, I think the Phillies’ lineup is slightly underrated since Harper is back in the group, even considering their ultra-high BABIP number (.336, highest in MLB). There is too much talent up and down the roster and I expect this lineup will be firing on all cylinders.
But will that lead to more wins?
The Phillies have an elite bullpen led by All-World Closer Jose Alvarado. They also have above average defense. Harper doesn’t do anything to affect these areas, but if I were a Phillies fan, the rotation would worry me the most.
Zack Wheeler should be producing at elite level again as he is generally a slow starter (career 4.31 ERA in April). But the Phillies lack initial pitching depth.
Matt Strahm is pitching well in the early days, but he hasn’t pitched more than 100 innings in a season since 2019. I can’t make a statistical case for regression, but I don’t trust him over an entire season.
Trotting Bailey Falter every five days hasn’t been fun as he continues to post terrible batted-ball stats despite having the best overtime in baseball (4.99 expected ERA).
I’m not high on Taijuan Walker who has an expected ERA near 5.00. He was also pulled early from his start against Seattle, only to give the Dodgers eight earned runs over 3⅓ innings five days later, raising questions about his health.
Perhaps Ranger Suarez can come back from injury and make the difference, but he showed signs of regression in 2022 (3.78 expected ERA, much lower strikeout numbers).
Normally, depth of rotation isn’t an issue for the Phillies, as Wheeler pairs with Aaron Nola to produce one of the MLB’s best double-start pitching shots. These two carried the Phillies to a World Series appearance.
But Nola looks terrible in the beginning, at least by his standards (4.46 ERA, 3.82 xERA). After posting a 30% strikeout rate in 2022, that number has dropped to 19.3% after six starts, and he’s on track to record his highest walk rate in three years (6.2%). . His normally high groundball rate (career 47.5%) has also fallen far (35.2%).
But the most worrying indicator for Nola’s early 2023 is speed. He’s never been a flamethrower, but he’s down a tad in his arsenal and is on track to achieve his lowest average fastball speed since 2016 (92.1 mph).
This is a huge problem and alarm bells should be ringing for any fan.
Unfortunately, Harper can’t make Nola throw faster or offer depth of rotation.
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Bryce Harper Return of the Phillies: How to bet on Phillies in the future
I can’t buy the Phillies in the futures market until their incipient pitching problems are fixed. Their initial pitching metrics aren’t bad overall, but there are too many troubling indicators on Nola, Walker, and Falter, so I’d argue that the Phillies rotation in general is overrated.
However, I see a way we could potentially benefit from Harper’s return.
In my personal performance ratings, I would understate lineup and overstate rotation. So of course I’d try to target a lot of the Phillies’ first five inning overs to target situations where Nola gets fired on while the Turner-Schwarber-Harper trio starts to generate more offense.
We could start Tuesday night with Strahm taking on the Dodgers’ fighting ace Julio Urias. The F5 total is 4.5 (over/+116) on FanDuel Sportsbook.
I would avoid full game overs going forward as Philly’s bullpen flipped their metrics after a terrible first two weeks of the season. I would argue that the support staff is underrated, so you might even target live subordinates.
But watch the Phillies’ situation closely. Harper could fight on his return, or Nola could recover, or Suarez could provide the much-needed go-ahead. The Phillies’ situation is complex, with many possible outcomes.
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