It's fun to jump on the bandwagon. To get on the hype train that leaves the station and heads to greener pastures. Sometimes these pastures require a little more green in the bag. In other cases, it's an easy way to be disappointed along with the rest of the public.
In the world of sports betting, it's important to know the difference between a smart bet that the public will participate in and a bet that has become so popular with the public that it no longer represents just good value. A good bet at odds of -110 is not automatically a good bet at odds of -150.
That's what I want to do for you this season: help you recognize those differences and think critically when you see something on TV, hear it again on a podcast, and then listen to it the rest of the time Your social media feeds see the week.
The trap
“It’s a week-to-week league.”
“What have you done for me lately?”
“You’re only as good as your last game.”
As the NFL becomes more popular around the world (thanks to Drake London for his touchdown in London), the overreaction to every result also increases.
Recency bias is real and widespread, affecting how we predict games, set our fantasy lineups, and place our bets.
The Miami Dolphins beat the Denver Broncos by 50 points in Week 3, setting all sorts of records, and Miami lost by 28 points to the Buffalo Bills last week. Your take on the Dolphins right now is probably different than it was last week.
Stephen A. Smith had the Dolphins No. 1 on his list of the top five NFL teams on First Take following their loss to Denver two weeks ago.
This Tuesday, Stephen A. decided to leave Miami out of the top five entirely and needed a reminder from Jeff Saturday not to fall victim to recency bias.
In reality, the Dolphins aren't as revolutionary as they looked against the Broncos — and if so, it'll be a matter of time before defensive coordinators solve them — but they're also not as bad as they looked against Buffalo last weekend .
Sportsbooks know this and are able to use data to analyze all the chaos and narrow a team down to a value or performance rating. They won't get every team or game right, but if they get 52% of things right and use the standard -110 odds on both sides of a bet, they will come out on top. Especially considering how many NFL games are limited to one or two games.
The New York Jets beat the Bills, almost beat the Kansas City Chiefs and almost beat the New England Patriots; three one-score games, all of which were decided until the end. They could easily be 0-4 at the moment, but they are also inches away from a Hail Mary and a controversial holding penalty from a chance to make it 3-1.
It has been proven that a team's record in one-point games returns to the mean over time. Remember last year's Minnesota Vikings, who had a perfect record of 11-0 in one-score games? They started this season with three straight defeats by one point.
This week, more than most, it is appropriate to take a deep breath before putting things into action. React, but don't overreact based on what happened last week. The NFL is truly an “Any Given Sunday” league, so don’t be shocked if it lives up to its name.
Is it a trap?
Week 4 results changed many NFL futures markets. Here's a quick look at two of the most important changes and whether or not to overreact based on the recent results.
Josh Allen becomes the MVP favorite at +400
Tua Tagovailoa was the favorite last week and fell back a bit after the loss to Buffalo (now +500). He is followed by Patrick Mahomes (+550), Jalen Hurts (+800) and Lamar Jackson (+1000).
I think this is a fair move, as Tagovailoa catapulted himself to the top after a 70-point explosion, but didn't put up eye-popping numbers himself. This feels like a course correction rather than an overreaction to the loss in Week 4.
However, I'm hesitant to bet on Allen (or Tagovailoa) at this current price. Eight of the last ten MVPs finished No. 1 in their conference, including six in a row. With the AFC top spot still so wide open, not to mention the AFC East race, I'm not willing to take a stance on either team when both have looked extremely dominant in recent weeks. According to ESPN Analytics, both Buffalo and Miami are still among the two highest-rated teams in the FPI.
NFL MVPs – Last 6 Seasons
| Year | quarterback | WL record | Playoff seed |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Patrick Mahomes | 14-3 | No. 1 seeds |
| 2021 | Aaron Rodgers | 13-4 | No. 1 seeds |
| 2020 | Aaron Rodgers | 13-3 | No. 1 seeds |
| 2019 | Lamar Jackson | 14-2 | No. 1 seeds |
| 2018 | Patrick Mahomes | 12-4 | No. 1 seeds |
| 2017 | Tom Brady | 13-3 | No. 1 seeds |
If I had to make a bet here, I would lean toward Jalen Hurts as the “brotherly push” still works wonders and the Eagles are primed for a top spot. A less dominant defense could actually improve Hurts' stats, and he was already a front-runner before getting injured in late 2022.
CJ Stroud becomes the favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year at +160
Stroud outperformed Bijan Robinson (+400), who had been the favorite since the market opened. We have a surprisingly fun little matchup between the Texans and the Falcons with these two rookies – I'll be honest, it would have had a very low score on my Watchability Index at the start of the season – and I wouldn't be shocked to see the odds Depending on the winner of this game, the numbers would change drastically again.
I think this is a trap. Caesars increased Stroud's line to +200 after Week 4, but his chances continue to shrink as more people become aware of his success. His upcoming schedule includes a full tour of every team in the NFC South, which feels like a favorable lineup on paper, but every team ranks in the top half of the league in fantasy points allowed to QBs, with Tampa and Carolina are in the top 10. Stroud's last three games have come against a team in the bottom half of this category.
Meanwhile, Robinson has averaged just 6.0 yards per attempt and averaged 18 touches per game. Robinson is on pace for a season with 80 catches and 1,921 scrimmage yards, which would place him in the top 100 in NFL history and seventh among rookies. There were only three players to record 2,000 scrimmage yards in their rookie season (Eric Dickerson, Edgerrin James and Saquon Barkley), and all three were named Offensive Rookie of the Year.
As for the other candidates, Puka Nacua will likely lose his WR1 role with Cooper Kupp returning. De'Von Achane is, at best, the third option in his own offense, which is also looking to bring another RB back from injury. And Anthony Richardson has already missed 1.5 games due to injury and won't put up passing numbers worthy of giving a QB the OROY award.
Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds
| team | player | opportunities |
|---|---|---|
| NEW | CJ Stroud | +160 |
| ATL | Sesame Robinson | +400 |
| LAR | Nucua form | +450 |
| IND | Anthony Richardson | +500 |
| MIA | De'Von Achane | +500 |
| >>All others +1600 or longer | ||
The bets you need to make
Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers (-4, 45)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET, Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California
49ers win both halves (+235)
Since the start of last season, Dak Prescott ranks 3rd in the NFL in QBR when tied or ahead, but falls to 24th when trailing. It's the largest QBR decline of any qualified starting QB in that span. If he falls behind early, I don't expect Dallas to remain competitive against one of the best defenses in the league.
From a mathematical perspective, the current San Fran ML of -190 represents an implied odds of 66% and this +235 bet has an implied odds of 30%. In a scenario where the 49ers win the game, I expect a worse version of Dak as the game progresses.
Top QBRs in lead/tie since 2022
| team | QBR | QBR while running after |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 76.0 | 76.7 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 75.7 | 82.8 |
| Dak Prescott | 72.7 | 50.9 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 68.0 | 75.6 |
| Jared Goff | 66.3 | 65.5 |
| Jalen hurts | 63.0 | 81.1 |
| >>Biggest drop-off of any starting QB | ||
Dak Prescott throws an interception (-129)
This is related to the previous bet, as Prescott threw an interception in all five of his losses since the start of last season (an average of 1.4 per game) and was intercepted in only six of his 11 wins. The 49ers recorded an interception against 15 of 21 starting QBs (71%) during that period. I would like to increase this line to -150.
Overall game theory
The Unders are hitting 56% this season, including 65% in the last two weeks. When looking at NFL betting totals, there is an underestimated trend to consider.
Extreme odds are rarely seen in sports betting, as half of the game results over a four-week period have so far been between 41 and 45. But when they do, it seems to be a clear sign for one side or the other.
Total points that finished below 45 points this season went 24-15-1 to the minors (62%). Totals that closed at 47 or higher rose to over (62%) at 8-5.
The sample sizes are a little smaller than I would like to start with, so let's dive back a little further. Since the start of last season, totals finishing at 44 or fewer are 107-78-2 for shorthanded players (58%).
I could imagine a scenario where sportsbooks are confident in a lower scoring game, but don't move the odds far enough down to reflect that confidence. We know that the public likes to bet on player props and game totals, so there is less incentive to post lower and lower numbers.
This week we have many games with lower totals and some that are over 50. I would like to test this trend and would spread a total of 2 to 3 units across a collection of bets to test this theory:
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