When the Philadelphia Phillies took the field to their first spring practice game in Florida a year ago, they thought they had a World Series-caliber roster.
Hardly anyone outside the City of Brotherly Love shared this belief.
The Phillies, of course, had the last laugh as they put on a stunning run to the National League pennant and pushed the Houston Astros into Game 6 of the World Series.
On Saturday afternoon, Philadelphia took the field for its first spring training game of 2023 with a slightly revised roster that the organization widely believes is good enough to put up with another World Series run.
And once again, few outside the Greater Philly area share that belief.
With the MLB exhibition season in full swing this week, here’s where the Phillies stand on various betting markets ahead of the upcoming season.
Odds via FanDuel and updated on February 24th.
Philadelphia Phillies 2023 Odds
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Win the World Series: +1400
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Win the National League: +700
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Win the National League East: +300
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Make the playoffs: -230
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Best record in MLB: +1400
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Over/Under Wins: 88.5 (Over -118/Under -104)
A year ago at this time, all the talk in the National League revolved around four teams: the Dodgers, Padres, Mets and Braves.
All four had better records than Philadelphia and all four qualified for the playoffs. But none made it to the Phillies, who secured the NL’s sixth and final postseason spot.
This spring, despite an all-star shortstop, a solid starting No. 3 pitcher and an experienced closer, Philadelphia is only seventh to win the World Series (+1400 on FanDuel).
Even when it comes to defending their NL pennant, the Phillies (+700) are once again behind the Dodgers (+400), Braves (+420), Mets (+420) and Padres (+500).
And of course Philadelphia (+300) is behind Atlanta (+135) and New York (+140) in terms of odds of winning the NL East.
» READ MORE: Underdog Phillies unlikely to return to World Series, almost a coin toss just to make MLB playoffs
Why the lack of confidence in the Phillies for the second year in a row? Two reasons: All teams stacked above them in various MLB futures markets are legitimate.
And though Philadelphia, with shortstop Trea Turner, right-hander Tijuan Walker and reliever Craig Kimbrel, scored in free agency, the team lost its best player and heart and soul — at least temporarily: hitter Bryce Harper.
The two-time NL MVP underwent offseason elbow surgery and is unlikely to join the Phillies roster before the All-Star break.
No harper? No problem
Not having Harper’s mighty bat for half the season will certainly sting. But if you believe the MLB betting market, Philadelphia has more than enough parts to have a successful regular season.
For example, FanDuel estimates the Phillies at 88.5 wins — 1.5 more than last year’s team. That win total ties the St. Louis Cardinals for ninth place on FanDuel.
Additionally, Philadelphia joins last season’s other 11 playoff teams as favorites to return to the postseason. In fact, the Phillies’ -230 odds of making the playoffs are better than all but seven squads: the Dodgers (-1000), Astros (-850), Braves (-600), Yankees (-550), Mets ( -500), Padres (-480) and Blue Jays (-290).
Our pick for this year’s Phillies: While the number is a bit chalky, put the -230 on Philadelphia to return to the playoffs.
» READ MORE: World Series Odds: Can the Astros win it all again? Odds makers believe so
Even without Harper, the lineup will be very productive with Turner, outfielders Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos, corner infielders Alec Bohm and Rhys Hoskins, and veteran catcher JT Realmuto.
Also, the addition of Turner will shore up a shaky defense.
Then there’s the pitching rotation. Co-aces Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler join Walker and southpaw Ranger Suarez for a top four just as solid as in the National League.
No, we’re not entirely confident that Kimbrel — who lost his closer spot with the Dodgers last year — has much left in the tank. But when the veteran right-hander goes sideways, manager Rob Thompson has plenty of bullpen options.
From today’s perspective, we only see seven contenders for the six playoff spots in the NL. Barring catastrophic injuries and/or a setback for Harper, the Phillies should have no problem getting into the postseason party.
Odds of winning for Philadelphia Phillies players
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MVP: SS Trea Turner (+1200), LF Kyle Schwarber (+3600), RF/DH Bryce Harper (+8000)
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NL Cy Young: RHP Aaron Nola (+1300), RHP Zack Wheeler (+1600)
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MLB home run leaders: LF Kyle Schwarber (+950), 1B Rhys Hoskins (+8000)
Phillies fans will know Turner well from his days with NL East rivals the Washington Nationals. That means they also know their team can have a second player of MVP caliber in Harper (a longtime teammate of Turner’s in the Nats).
As a five-tool player, Turner can bat for average and power; it’s electrifying on the basepaths; and he plays above average defense.
Throw in a move from Dodger Stadium to hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park, and Turner is a very intriguing NL MVP candidate.
He starts spring eighth on FanDuel’s NL MVP rating board at +1200. He follows three Padres (Juan Soto +500, Fernando Tatis Jr. +1000 and Manny Machado +1000); two Cardinals (reigning MVP Paul Goldschmidt +950 and Nolan Arenado +1000); and a Dodger (Mookie Betts +850).
On the NL Cy Young front, Nola (+1300) and Wheeler (+1600) are sixth and seventh respectively at FanDuel.
» READ MORE: Full sports betting coverage from The Philadelphia Inquirer
Nola finished fourth in voting last year as his disappointing 11-13 win-loss record was offset by a 3.25 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. Wheeler was limited to 26 starts but went 12-7 with a 2.82 ERA and 1.04 WHIP.
Meanwhile, Schwarber hit a career-high 46 home runs last year. That was National League leader and only behind Yankees slugger Aaron Judge, whose 62 bombs in 2022 broke the AL home run record.
It’s no surprise that Judge (+600) is favored to defend his home run crown. Schwarber tied for second place with Los Angeles Angels’ Mike Trout (both +950).
We could easily see Schwarber releasing another 40-homer season. And we like that Nola and Wheeler are delivering outstanding numbers again in 2023.
However, of all the Phillies players listed on FanDuels Futures, our favorite bet is Turner to win MVP. he is so good
The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator or gambling site. We provide this sports betting information for entertainment purposes only.
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