Ever wanted to bet on baseball but didn’t know where to start? Our betting expert Edward Egros explains the basics of betting on MLB.
Fans enjoy hot dogs and cold brews on a weekday afternoon. The familiar cracking sound of the ball hitting the racquet before flying out of sight. Classic pinstripes, inhabited dugouts and stretches in the 7th inning.
baseball is back
And while the game is as easy to enjoy as a Sunday morning doubleheader from a fan perspective, betting on baseball and figuring out which of the thousands of stats to research can seem overwhelming. So when it comes to putting yourself in the best position to hit your bets out of the park, I’m here for you.
In this article, I’m going to go through baseball betting jargon and point you to the resources you need to find the most important stats. My goal is to teach you how to bet single games. Baseball futures are also a fun way to bet on the sport I love, so we’ll cover that too.
But let’s start with the basics first – the money line, the run line and the overall over/under.
Each game has a display like the following:
Let’s start with the simplest bet you can have, the total over/under. The last column shows the total number of runs expected to be scored in the game. In our example, the total is listed for eight runs. You would then bet on whether you think the total number of runs scored by both teams will be over or under eight runs. just right?
Next, let’s break down the moneyline. Essentially, this is a simple bet as you only choose who you think will win the game. If you pick the winner correctly, you will get the payout listed. In the chart above, the moneyline is the leftmost number.
The number in the middle column of this graph is called the running line. This bet is basically a bet on how many runs the team will win by. The team with a negative running line is the favorite to win and the team with the positive running line is the underdog. In order for you to win by picking favorite based on running line, that team must win by more runs than listed. In this case, the Angels must win by more than one run for you to win your bet.
Next up are payouts. Usually, a negative number means that an outcome is more likely. So this negative number means that the implied probability is greater than 50%. In our example, the negative numbers refer to how much you need to wager to win $100.
In this case, if you bet on the Boston Moneyline, a $100 bet would pay you $110. On the other hand, if you took Anaheim -133, you would have to risk $133 to win $100 if the Angels win.
Remember that a plus sign means the results are less likely. Because of this, these teams are usually referred to as underdogs.
When it comes to the runline, it’s a similar concept with risk and payoff. If you took Boston +1.0 at -120, you must bet $120 to win $100 if you like the Red Sox Run Line. If you take Anaheim -1 at +100 you would bet $100 to win $100 if you like the Angels Run Line.
Those are the ground rules, and like anything else, you’ll become more comfortable with repetition and experience. Now comes the next painfully obvious next question: who should I bet on?
For that, you need to keep up to date with all of my MLB posts on FOX Sports! The other answer is that you need a working knowledge of which baseball statistics are descriptive and which are predictive. Baseball is a sport where statistics are very valuable. Let’s break down how you can use these stats in your favor.
Descriptive statistics explain what happened. Mike Trout has a batting average of .319 and Max Scherzer has a earned running average of 2.45. These are examples of descriptive statistics. The problem with descriptions is that there is no guarantee that they will accurately predict the future. That’s the whole point of betting, right! And as interesting as they are, these basic box score numbers are poor indicators of when a player is on a hot streak, or worse, falling into a slump.
Predictive statistics are better at doing what they sound like – predicting the future. The word “expected” is often displayed next to these statistics. Components of these statistics include metrics such as exit velocity, the speed of the ball when it is hit. You may also see the launch angle, which is the angle of flight of a ball after it hits the racquet. By looking at how likely it is that a hit will occur with a given exit velocity and launch angle, these probabilities can be added together to give an expected batting average (XBA). By comparing batting average (BA) versus XBA, you can then get a better idea of which hitters are going to be hot and which will be going down.
Yes, that was a lot. To make it even easier, baseballsavant.mlb.com includes these expected stats in every game preview. The site also has league-wide information to help with futures betting such as: B. Choosing a World Series Winner.
Speaking of futures, the easiest way to describe it is as a bet on an event that will happen in the future. Popular in relation to MLB is betting on teams to win the World Series or which Stud player will be MVP.
An important way to create such projections is the run differential. Pythagorean expectation is a formula that uses runs scored and runs allowed to determine the winning percentage a ball club should have. A team that surpasses its expected Pythagorean record must fall behind, while a team that has had a lot of bad luck should be poised to perform better the following season. There are other ways to dig even deeper and get more granular.
You can take a look at a ball club’s offense and defense, how many runs should have been scored and allowed, and then adjust the strength of the schedule (baseball analyst Clay Davenport describes all of these adjustments here). When you include these adjustments, you get third-order gains and losses. Ball clubs that underperform compared to their third-order records may be best-equipped to succeed in the future. This kind of data gives us the tools we need to make some informed seasonal bets.
While there are many more expected statistics and multiple permutations of forecast statistics, applying the latest and best is often the key to beating the day and futures markets.
Now comes the fun part. Hopefully, now that you’ve mastered the basics, you’re well-positioned to make a baseball bet or two with money. But if you still need more help, I’m here for you too. Stay tuned for my next article where I will dive deep into the stats above to give you my top three MLB futures bets to make right now.
And as always, be sure to head over to FOX Bet to get in on the baseball betting action now!
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