The Los Angeles Lakers were the first-ever champions of the NBA In-Season Tournament, and we're tracking our favorite futures odds for the Lakers based on the NBA odds following their NBA Cup victory.
The Los Angeles Lakers won the NBA's first in-season tournament and defeated the league's best offense with a 123-109 victory over the Indiana Pacers on Saturday night in Las Vegas. The Lakers players received medals and celebratory T-shirts. They popped champagne in the locker room, much to the chagrin of the NBA community.
We do not know how the NBA Cup results will impact the remainder of the 2023-24 season. It's not nearly the same as winning in the playoffs, but it gave us a glimpse of what teams might look like when the stakes are a little higher. There are about 60 games left in the regular season, but will voters be swayed by any of these special IST moments in the first few months?
To get a better idea, let's take a look at how the Lakers' IST win changed the futures markets. We try to understand what was an overreaction and what could be a sign of things to come.
Here's a look at the latest Lakers futures odds and NBA picks (odds via our top NBA betting sites).
The Lakers' championship chances are changing
While the NBA Cup obviously doesn't count as a championship, the Lakers' performance in the IST was clearly enough to give the market confidence in their chances.
Since last week, using the latest 2024 NBA Finals odds, we've seen the Lakers go from 22/1 odds (best odds all year) to just 13/1 odds on the Caesars. The best price in this market is at FanDuel, which offers 18/1 odds on Los Angeles to win it all.
According to the market, only the Boston Celtics, Denver Nuggets, Milwaukee Bucks, Phoenix Suns and Philadelphia 76ers are considered bigger competitors than the Lakers. That may seem like an overreaction for a team that sits in fifth place in the Western Conference with a 14-9 overall record, but the Lakers will always attract plenty of betting interest.
It's also important to note that Los Angeles now ranks fifth in adjusted defensive rating according to Dunks and Threes. The offense needs to be closer to the top 10 than its current rating of 19, but ShotQuality's adjusted offensive rating of 12th for the Lakers suggests they've had some bad luck shooting. According to ShotQuality, Los Angeles should shoot 1.5% better from 3-point range, 1.7% better from mid-range and 9.7% better from post-ups.
Still, it might be best to wait for another lull in the Lakers' schedule before investing in their championship chances after their recent resurgence in this market.
Anthony Davis can win DPOY
We just saw arguably the best game Anthony Davis has played since The Bubble, maybe even before. And it technically didn't count. Davis finished the IST championship game with 41 points, 20 rebounds, five assists and four blocks, which will not be included in official statistics from either a team or individual perspective.
But what it did do was change Davis' chances of winning his first-ever Defensive Player of the Year award. Davis, who opened at around 9/1 to win the prize, was listed at +600 just a few days ago. Following Saturday's performance, he rose to +380 on FanDuel, with BetMGM currently offering the best value on the board at +450. Only Rudy Gobert has a better chance in the latest NBA Defensive Player of the Year odds.
This award has historically gone to the best defensive player on the best defensive team, which is why Gobert leads the Minnesota Timberwolves team that is No. 1 in defensive rating. However, the Lakers are on the rise after staying afloat in that regard without their best perimeter defenders to start the season.
Since Jarred Vanderbilt returned to the team in early December, Los Angeles has posted the league's best defensive rating (95.4). The Brooklyn Nets are the next closest team over this period with a defensive rating of 102. That's a small sample size, of course, but a sign of how good the Lakers can be defensively when they're closer to full strength.
Davis is second in the league with an average of 2.7 blocks per game, which is an important stat to keep an eye on when hindering this market. As long as the team's defense continues to improve, aside from the obvious health limitation, Davis has a chance to win this trophy.
LeBron James can claim this distinction
After winning the first-ever IST MVP award, it's easy to get excited about LeBron James' regular-season MVP campaign. But the reality is that he is extremely unlikely to win this award. We've seen minimal change in James' MVP odds, as he's listed at +8000 at BetMGM – the same price as Davis.
However, James has been quietly talking about another prize race all year. Or maybe not so quietly, if you follow me on social media, where I would like to remind everyone that I have a 34/1 rating for James to possibly win the NBA Clutch Player of the Year award for the second time ever ” to win. James is now second in this market on FanDuel, which is offering odds of +550.
Sacramento Kings guard De'Aaron Fox won the award last year after his clutch play led his team to the NBA playoffs. With a total of 194 points, he was the scoring leader in the decisive game – in the last five minutes of the fourth quarter or in overtime if the score is within five points. He also achieved the best clutch rating, according to tracking on inpredictable.com.
We don't have much historical data for this award, but these seem like two pretty important metrics to monitor. Well, James is currently fifth in clutch game scoring, while he is third in clutch scoring behind Alex Caruso of the Chicago Bulls and Tyrese Haliburton of the Pacers.
The best part about the Lakers not being one of the clear giants is that they will play a lot of close games even when they shouldn't. James has always been able to get his team to win in these moments, and I think voters will notice if he continues to perform at a high level in his 21st season in the league. James may not win MVP, but this may end up being the best way to reward his impressive longevity.
Austin Reaves was favored to win in the sixth man
Honestly, it may be too early to talk about the NBA's Sixth Man of the Year pick, but Lakers guard Austin Reaves has become the betting favorite in this market as of late. He is valued at +250 on both FanDuel and BetMGM after trading at around +400 just four days ago.
Reaves started the first eight games of the season before head coach Darvin Ham benched him. It was more about the Lakers not being able to play D'Angelo Russell and Reaves in the backcourt at the same time for defensive reasons, but it also didn't help that “Hillbilly Kobe” got off to a slow start after the game in the FIBA World Cup last summer.
In the 15 games since moving to the reserve role, Reaves has improved his scoring average (13.1 points per game on 14.7 PPG), his rebounding average (4.4 rebounds per game on 4.9 RPG) and his assists Average increased (4.0 assists per game to 5.1 APG) while shooting better from the floor and from 3-point range. Reaves also closes games for the Lakers.
Reaves scored a blast of 28 points on 9-for-15 shooting in the IST title game, which would have officially been his best performance of the season. Given his play in that role and the fact that the Lakers are getting healthier on the perimeter, it's unlikely that Reaves will be reinserted into the starting lineup.
But there is no reason to pay that price in such a volatile market.
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