The worst-kept secret in recent memory was officially revealed Monday afternoon: Aaron Rodgers is a New York jet.
The deal everyone saw coming was finally executed when the Jets acquired the future Hall of Famer quarterback from the Green Bay Packers for a bushel of draft picks. Included was a modest swap of first-round picks in this week’s NFL Draft: The Packers will move up from 15th to 13th place, while New York slips two spots.
While an indemnity agreement held up the deal for more than six weeks, there was never any doubt as to what uniform Rodgers would wear in his 19th NFL season.
That’s exactly why Monday’s breaking news was met with a shrug in NFL betting circles. Odds makers long ago adjusted the prices of the Jets in various NFL futures markets, including odds for winning Super Bowl 58.
Still, the trade serves as a reminder of Rodgers’ perceived value in the NFL betting market: New York — which hasn’t qualified for the playoffs in a dozen years and hasn’t played for a championship since winning Super Bowl 3 on Jan. 1. November 1969 – currently has the 6th lowest chance of winning next year’s title.
And many bettors believe the jets are about to take off with Rodgers on board.
The odds were updated at noon ET on April 25th.
Super Bowl 58 Odds: Jets are in thin air
When the Super Bowl 58 betting market opened, six teams at BetMGM had odds of +1400 to win the next Vince Lombardi Trophy.
Less than 24 hours after Rodgers was officially shipped from Green Bay to New York, BetMGM still has six teams with odds of +1400 or better to win Super Bowl 58.
However, what happened between the end of last season and Monday is the crux of the news: The Jets, who opened with Super Bowl odds of +2500, parted ways with two teams with the same +2500 odds and also zoomed in on two passing other teams to sixth position.
Additionally, New York’s opening odds of +1400 of winning the AFC – something the franchise hasn’t done since reaching Super Bowl 3 – have been halved to +700.
These dramatic odds shifts began back in early March, when BetMGM (and other sportsbooks) were quick to react to heavy speculation that Rodgers would be joining the Jets. When the four-time NFL MVP publicly announced his desire to leave Green Bay for the Big Apple on March 15, New York was already at +1600 to win Super Bowl 58.
However, as the Jets bets continued to pour in, several sportsbooks shrunk New York’s Super Bowl odds to +1400, where they were prior to Monday’s trade announcement.
As of Tuesday morning, just five teams were ahead of the Jets in the Super Bowl odds pecking order: the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs, along with the Buffalo Bills, the Philadelphia Eagles, the Cincinnati Bengals and the San Francisco 49ers.
» READ MORE: Eagles Draft Odds: Two offensive linemen favored the 10th overall pick
Jets are flying high in the AFC championship market
While the initial Rodgers-to-the-Jets rumors prompted sportsbooks to reposition New York on their 2023-24 NFL futures boards, a build-up of those aforementioned Jets bets also had repercussions — particularly in the AFC’s betting market -Championship.
BetMGM reported on Tuesday that it received more bets and more dollars for New York to win the AFC than any other team. New York accounts for more than 17% of all AFC Championship tickets and almost 19% of all cash receipts.
In comparison, the Bengals, who won the AFC two years ago, are second in ticket count (12.2%), followed by reigning AFC champions Chiefs (10.4%) and Bills (10.3%). .
Interestingly, the New England Patriots are second (12.5%), Kansas City third (11.7%), and Buffalo and Cincinnati fourth (10.4%).
When it comes to Super Bowl betting action at BetMGM, the Jets are lined up behind six teams in both ticket count and handling.
BetMGM has taken the most Super Bowl bets on the Bengals (10.6%), Chiefs (9.4%) and Bills (9.2%). The Eagles – who came up a bit short against Kansas City in Super Bowl 57 – are next at 8.2%, followed by the Detroit Lions (7.9%), the 49ers (7.3%) and the Jets ( 5.6%).
In terms of Super Bowl dollars wagered at BetMGM, Buffalo is #1 with a ball of 16.8%. The Chiefs are second with 10.4%, followed by Cincinnati (9.5%), San Francisco (8.5%), Philadelphia (8.2%) and Detroit (8.1%). From there it’s a big drop to the Jets at 5.8%.
» READ MORE: NFL Draft Odds: Are At Least Five QBs Picked in First Round?
Can New York be beasts of the east?
Of course, before Rodgers and the Jets can think about reaching Super Bowl 58 — let alone winning it — they must first secure a spot in the playoffs. And while the franchise made a big leap last year by going 7-10 after winning six games combined in the previous two seasons, it still ended in the basement for the third straight season and sixth time in the last seven campaigns the AFC East.
Last time New York played a postseason game? You have to go back to the 2010 season. And the Jets haven’t won their division in two decades.
Ending the latter drought won’t be easy as Buffalo are seen as favorites to win their fourth straight AFC East title. Also, the Miami Dolphins are on the rise after making the playoffs last year, and the Patriots are set to improve their tally after two poor seasons.
All in all, the Jets are currently the second best odds of winning the AFC East at BetMGM (+225), behind the Bills (+130) but well ahead of Miami (+325) and New England (+750).
Rodgers’ new team also has the majority of AFC East betting action at BetMGM with 31.9% of all tickets and 37.8% of all dollars supporting New York.
Seems an overwhelming amount of confidence in a 39-year-old quarterback and a consistently underperforming franchise. But hey, at least Jets Nation is basking in something it hasn’t had in eons: loads of optimism.
» READ MORE: Full sports betting coverage from The Philadelphia Inquirer
The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator or gambling site. We provide this sports betting information for entertainment purposes only.
Comments are closed.