Fund liquidation was the feature in grain markets today. Now that the USDA reports are factored in, the focus will be on the US weather and seeding progress. The first weekly report of USDA crop conditions will be released next Monday afternoon. Next Friday is the USDA’s next monthly supply-demand report.
At the close today, corn was down 13¾ cents, while December’s corn was down 4 cents. In the soybean market, May closed 35 cents lower and November futures closed 14 cents lower. CBOT wheat closed down 21 cents, KC wheat down 17 cents and Minneapolis in July down 11 cents.
Weekly chart update
For the week, corn closed up 19 cents at $7.35. Compared to $5.60 last year at this point. For soybeans, the May contract ended down $1.28 a bushel compared to $14.02 last year. This week, CBOT wheat closed at $1.18, KC wheat at 98 cents and Minneapolis wheat at 39 cents.
The main factor driving Monday’s trade will be headlines from Russia-Ukraine peace talks.
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11:30 a.m
Liquidation of funds continues as the major contrasts in the cash and futures markets collapse.
Currently, July corn is down 8¢, December corn is up 6¢. For soybeans, soybeans are down 13¢ in July and 6¢ in November. Wheat is mixed with CBOT lower and Minneapolis and KC trading higher.
For the week, corn is down 17¢ nearby, soybeans are down $1.10 a bushel nearby, and wheat futures are down 30¢ to over $1.00 a bushel.
The peace talks continue as the war rages on. The news is mixed and daily volatility continues.
The stock market continues to fall and livestock is under pressure.
Next week more attention will be paid to North American weather and planting progress. Wheat traders will follow the release of the USDA’s first report on crop conditions. Grain markets will be very weather sensitive after yesterday’s USDA reports.
Grain markets look set to consolidate further. The big surprise was the USDA’s prospective planting report, which showed 2.5 million acres fewer corn than expected and soybean acreage was 2.2 million acres above trade estimates. The total area under corn and soybeans was 180.5 million acres. The grain inventories report showed slightly less than expected corn, more soybeans than expected, and for wheat, about 20 million bushels less than expected wheat inventories.
Now that the reports are factored in, the key will again be the war in Ukraine, and from April the focus will be more on US weather and planting conditions. Weekly USDA crop status reports begin next Monday.
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9:30 am
Grain prices were very volatile yesterday. Corn closed higher, soybeans significantly lower and the wheat market was mixed. On the night markets, grain markets are mostly lower after starting higher last night.
At this hour, July corn is down 10¢ while December corn is trading 5¢ higher. Soybeans are down 20¢ in July, down 14¢ in November and wheat prices are mixed with Chicago prices lower and KC and Minneapolis slightly higher. The funds continue to liquidate long positions.
Crude Oil is slightly lower in external markets today after falling sharply yesterday. The US dollar is up 0.29 points and US stock index futures are lower again. The huge price premium between old crop and new crop is moving further down.
Looking ahead to April and the second quarter of 2022
First, remember that the March 31 acreage report is referred to as the planting intent report and the actual numbers may differ in the June 30 planting report.
With the current soybean-to-corn price ratio of 2.09 to 1, this rally will buy cornfields this spring if Mother Nature cooperates.
Yesterday was the end of the month and the first quarter. Let’s see how the prices trade next week.
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