We’re only a week into the new NFL season and already the futures markets are shifting and moving.
Patrick Mahomes has taken the MVP lead after 360 yards and five TDs in the opener. Washington WR Jahan Dotson jumped off the radar to Rookie of the Year leader. Defended DPOY TJ Watt appears unable to defend his crown after tearing his chest. And then there is the NFC.
Four of the five NFC favorites going into the season lost in opening weekend: the Rams, Packers, 49ers and Cowboys. Some of those losses were worse than others — if I look at you, San Francisco — but no team had a more devastating opener than Dallas.
Too many bettors think of futures as one-off deals, something to play before the season and scout for winners after the playoffs. But futures markets change every game, so there’s value all season long. That’s why we return to these markets on Futures Fridays throughout the year.
There hasn’t been a more seismic shift in the market this week than the Dallas Cowboys after Dak Prescott’s injury, so let’s start there.
How do we play the post-Prescott injury landscape?
Prescott is a very good quarterback. He was 11th in my QB preseason ranking and 10th in Sean Koerner’s QB spread ranking. Koerner gives Prescott a +4.5 point to the spread, and with Cooper Rush being one of the worst backups in the league at -1.0, that’s a 5.5 point swing.
Some perspective: The Cardinals are 5.5 point underdogs and +200 on the money line this weekend, 33% implied. A team with even odds would be +100 (50%). In other words, a neutral team that lost Prescott would go from one-for-two to one-for-three to win on any Sunday. Shot.
Prescott underwent surgery on his broken right thumb, with initial reports missing six to eight weeks before Dallas owner Jerry Jones suggested a return within four weeks. Color me skeptical. Jones was way off the mark with his instant ‘diagnosis’ and I trust the football docs who expect a broken throwing hand thumb to be – you know – a big deal. You’ve got him out for at least six weeks.
Check out the Cowboys’ upcoming schedule:
At least Prescott is out through the Rams game. That likely leaves the Cowboys 1-4 at best, with a vaguely healthy Prescott returning for a road game in Philly to salvage the season. Miss one more, though, and Dallas is suddenly 1-5 or 0-6 with a losing season and so close to bye week that it makes sense to hold off on their franchise QB and ensure he’s fully healthy going forward is.
I initially ranked the healthy Cowboys sixth in my offensive unit rankings. They dropped to 11th after Tyron Smith’s injury and now plummet to 26th with Rush instead of Prescott. In other words, Dallas offense falls from the Bengals to the Ravens to the Jets. Ouch.
Unless Prescott returns early and somehow manages to play great with a broken throwing thumb and no remaining star tackle, it looks like the Cowboys season will be over before it even begins. I predicted Dallas at 9.3 wins for the season. I have her at 7.4 now, with 9.7 her best case scenario wins.
The books appear to be right, dropping Dallas’ overall win from 10.5 a week ago to 7.5 now, juiced to the max. The Cowboys plummeted from +240 to miss the playoffs a few weeks ago when I was now recommending it at -250.
If you’ve been on the other side of Dallas expecting good things, I’m sorry to say that there is no direct way to redeem your Cowboys tickets. But there is a way to play this to our advantage in the futures market. Actually a few…
Eagles to win the NFC East -150
If the Cowboys are doomed, the NFC East seems wide open. Unless, of course, the Eagles just run off with it.
I was one of the few Action Network pundits to play Philadelphia’s Odds Division the entire offseason. The Eagles are now my strongest division favorite, ahead of the Bucs and Bills, both of which are priced at -300 or more on each book.
That’s where I would put the Eagles, about 75%, to take the divisional crown. You can instead bet Philadelphia at -150, implied 60%. Some negative numbers are worth betting on the futures market, but Philly’s extensive, talented roster is easily the best in the division right now and could be the best non-QB roster in football. The Eagles should comfortably win this division with a real runway to the NFC 1 seed if they want to go big in Philly futures.
You might be tempted to put the Commanders (+500) or Giants (+600) as division long shots, but don’t think about it. Philadelphia is a great read at -150 and it’s already up from -130 on Monday so don’t wait.
Commanders lose +250 in the wild card round
If you like Washington, here’s a different angle to play.
Dallas isn’t just out of divisional competition. It’s likely well out of the playoff hunt, which means an extra spot has just opened up in the already wide-open NFC. Even if you include the Bucs, Packers, Rams, Vikings, 49ers and an NFC East champion, there’s still a spot open.
Could that other place stay right there in the division? Carson Wentz threw four TDs to lead Washington to a Week 1 win, and the Commanders have a soft upcoming schedule: at Lions, Eagles, at Cowboys, Titans, Bears.
Washington is benefiting from the Prescott injury as much as any team as a road trip to Dallas is no longer daunting. Commanders will have a chance in each of these games. They could start at 5-1 or even 6-0 with talented defense and improved downfield passing offense. Add in later games against the Texans, Falcons and Giants (twice) and there’s a path to double-digit wins.
You can bet Washington will win by -134 over 7.5 or by +100 over 8.5. But if the Commanders win nine games in Soft NFC, they’ll likely make the playoffs as well. You can bet on that at +130, but I’ll take it one step further.
Washington may have a way into the playoffs, but if it gets there, would you give it a real chance? Even if they win the division and host a game, the commanders are likely underdogs. So I’m getting aggressive and betting Washington to lose at +250 on Wild Card Weekend – basically to make the playoffs but not win a game there. let’s be wild
Be careful when blind betting against the Cowboys over the next few weeks. Dallas fell from -2.5 to +7.5 against the Bengals, a 10-point swing. The Week 3 Lookahead has already swung eight points. Koerner’s numbers suggest Prescott’s loss is being overstated. The better move is to play these futures.
Let’s take a quick look at another future to consider this week.
RELAX and grab a Packers Super Bowl ticket at +1500
The Packers lost for the second straight week in Week 1 and it’s easy to compare that to where they started last year. Green Bay scored just once to end the game while Aaron Rodgers watched helplessly on the sidelines of a blowout loss.
But these losses were not the same.
Green Bay lost by two TDs to a Vikings team that could be pretty good. We could be looking pretty impressed two months from a defense that kept Minnesota on 23 points, including just two second-half field goals.
And those two touchdowns? Rookie Christian Watson dropped a perfectly-placed 75-yard TD in the Packers’ first game from scrimmage, and Green Bay was later stopped in 4th place and goal in the half. There’s your two-TD deficit, and remember, both star tackles were late scratches. All of that on the street against a tough league opponent, probably one of Green Bay’s three or four toughest games of the year.
This is a clear buy-low spot for the Packers.
Green Bay is a double-digit home favorite against the Bears this Sunday, my favorite game of the week. Next up is a tricky trip to Tampa before games against the Patriots, Giants, Jets and Commanders. Blink and the Packers are expectedly 5-2 or 6-1 heading into midseason.
Green Bay started the season third in both my offensive and defensive ratings. The Packers will only get better as they get healthier and Rodgers finds a relationship with his new receivers, and Green Bay should be favored by at least one touchdown in nine games going forward.
The NFC is wide open. We have already addressed the cowboys. The Rams were terrible in the opener. The 49ers lost to the Bears. Green Bay is 39-11 in three years with Rodgers and Matt LaFleur. The Packers should be among the NFL’s elite in January, as always, with shots as good as anyone.
Green Bay was my preseason Super Bowl pick, but I purposely waited for a buy-low spot, probably after an early loss to Minnesota or Tampa Bay. It’s a drastic overreaction that drops the Packers’ Super Bowl odds from +1000 to +1500 after a game. We may never get that award again.
No half things. The Packers are +600 to win the NFC, which would mean they would be a significant underdog in a Super Bowl if they made it. I’m not sure they would even be underdogs, so the NFC ticket isn’t nearly as valuable.
It’s time to snag our first Super Bowl ticket of the year. Grab the Packers at +1500 before it’s gone for good.
Comments are closed.