We’ve now passed the one-third mark and are marching towards halfway. We’ve built some solid portfolios in the awards market, know which markets to capitalize on and shouldn’t be lagging at this point in the season.
As a reminder, here are the criteria we will be using when looking at the MVP and Cy Young markets:
MVP
– We are looking for someone who is typically between 24 and 30 years old.
– Victory counts
– A previous strong finish in the MVP race is required
– WAR is by far the most important stat
Cy Young
– ERA is king. All other factors can be pushed aside to bow before the altar of a Top 2 ERA.
With that in mind, let’s move on. As a reminder, you can buy odds for all MLB awards at multiple books by visiting our Futures Betting Odds page.
We’ve talked about this being our best used market in previous issues. If you’re lagging behind, you’ll have all three frontrunners in your portfolio — all in better numbers than they currently are.
So should we be happy with where we are now? Of the competing names, only three pose a real threat (less than 50:1): Keller, Webb, and Wheeler.
While Wheeler has a FIP of 2.85, his ERA sits at 4.33, and even if we forecast him to be closer to his combined peripherals for the rest of the season, it’s difficult to rank him in the top two ERAs . Happen.
In all honesty, if this article had been written two weeks ago, Keller probably would have been included in the portfolio. However, his last three starts have been his worst this season, so this is a pause for now to see if it’s a blip or something bigger. His ERA is 3.60, allowing plenty of time to pounce if needed.
Webb is the most intriguing. He has a track record and is also the opposite of Keller – he started slow but developed strongly. Obviously a long season ahead, but he’s also one of the top pitchers as he doesn’t tend to take those massive blasts that ruin an ERA. The peripherals are mostly in line with last season when he finished with a 2.90 ERA – that’s enough for me to get him talking.
Two fast names to keep an eye on: Bryce Elder and Marcus Stroman. They are not listed above as the market has absolutely no faith that they will maintain their current success but they are currently the top two names in the NL ERA race. I’m skeptical too, so both are an obstacle for me at the moment. But if that continues into July or August, getting a slightly lower number on one or both won’t be a problem for me.
Best bid: Webb +1800 (Numerous)
While we have the best coverage in NL Cy Young, we have the least coverage in AL Cy Young. Injuries have canceled out two big bets but I actually think some actionable steps need to be taken here, especially as the favorite has some flaws.
McClanahan leads the entire field of baseball with a 2.02 ERA, but much like Elder and Stroman in the Netherlands, the peripherals just don’t match. However, unlike those two, he’s kind of the favorite. Part of that is the track record and pedigree, as he posted a 2.54 ERA last season, but his peripherals were also much stronger last season. His walk rate is up this season and his ground ball rate is down. I think Tampa Bay is believed to have amazing stats, but the Rays are also a hotspot for pitcher injuries. Of all the odds on the price market, McClanahan is the worst in my opinion right now.
So when we come across the favourite, it stands to reason that this is a market to bet on.
Ironically, second favorite Cole has many of the same red flags and faces a summer at Yankee Stadium, which is usually a spooky place for starting players.
Luckily, there’s a large pool of potential right below these two. And from this group of launchers, two names catch my eye: Valdez and Gausman.
We already have something on Gausman, but if not, I’d definitely move on now. If I took those chances, I would have him at the top. He leads the league by a wide margin in strikeouts and fWAR. Remember, he was also second in fWAR last season. We don’t track the units in these portfolios (a possible oversight), but I’d like to increase my Gausman bet.
As for Valdez, his ERA sits at 2.16 and most predictions put him at just over 3.00 for the rest of the season – meaning he has a very good chance of ending the year with an ERA of complete under 3.00. He’s notable for maintaining a lower ERA than xERA (has managed that in five of his six seasons by decent margins), so I look at his FIP (2.87) and xFIP (2.70) even when he has proven himself capable of posting lower numbers than this (3.55 career FIP; 3.22 ERA).
Finally, Luis Castillo is the name I want to keep my eye on the most, partly because I feel that when he’s in the conversation, he’s respected enough to give him a crucial edge over the actual ERA champion. However, I’m good at holding onto Castillo for now.
Best Bets: Gausman +800 (Numerous), Valdez +800 (Caesars)
The approach here was to avoid preseason favorite Ohtani as I saw him as a high injury risk due to pitch clock and two-way play. Obviously this hasn’t proven itself yet, which is great for baseball. (Even if I win a bet, I would never hope for an injury). Still, we’re not in a bad position if Ohtani misses the time. Judge is technically the second favorite, but he’s about to miss the time, and with Semien (who’s in the top 5 in most books) and Alvarez, we’re in good shape.
The only name I want to mention is the player who leads baseball in both rWAR and fWAR on the best team in baseball: Wander Franco.
The 22-year-old has absolutely nailed it, and with a .309/.374/.500 slash line, 21 steals and the best defensive rWAR in the AL, he has the profile of an MVP. With a score of 30:1 there is still a lot of value here even in a league with Ohtani.
Best bid: Franco +3000 (Numerous)
We started with our best market and we’ll end with our worst.
That’s right, we don’t currently have a single position for any of the top eight candidates!
I’m not a big fan of chases, so my only play will be Arraez at 50:1. Michael Baumann recently wrote for FanGraphs about Arraez’s chances of hitting .400, and while the odds aren’t great – and batting average is notoriously a dead stat – he’ll get plenty of attention if he even comes close in is able to score a hit run. Add to that the fact that the Marlins are making a surprise push for the playoffs (again, it’s early days, I know), and I see the path to a surprise in this race. At +5000 I nibble.
Best bet (small): Arraez +5000 (Numerous)
Best tips from this article:
NL Cy Young: Logan Webb +1800 (numerous)
AL Cy Young: Gausman +800 (numerous)
AL Cy Young: Framber Valdez +800 (Caesars)
AL MVP: Wander Franco +3000 (Numerous)
NL MVP: Luis Arraez +5000 (Numerous)
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