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There was little doubt it was going to happen, but CJ Stroud was officially announced as the Week 1 starter for the Houston Texans.
While Davis Mills played well for Houston in the post-Deshaun-Watson era, Stroud has immeasurably greater potential and the future should begin sooner rather than later.
So what can we expect from Stroud and the Texans in the upcoming season?
When assessing expectations for a team, I like to look to Vegas.
HC DeMeco Ryans of the Texans said that No. 2 overall CJ Stroud will officially be Houston’s starting quarterback on opening day against the Baltimore Ravens.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) August 28, 2023
CJ Stroud #7 of the Houston TexansGetty Images
What do the odds makers think of Houston’s Super Bowl odds, AFC South odds and overall win tally?
Where does Stroud stand in the future markets for awards like MVP or Offensive Rookie of the Year?
Houston Texans opportunities
Here’s a look at where the Texans stand in the key NFL future markets at FanDuel Sportsbook.
| super bowl | +18000 |
| AFC South | +1000 |
| Win overall | 6.5 (+116/-142) |
The Texans, along with Arizona, have the highest odds of any team to win the Super Bowl.
They are expected to finish last in the relatively underperforming AFC South and not win many games this year.
However, markets are not so bearish on Stroud. Here is his position in the most important NFL future markets at FanDuel:
| MVP | +15000 |
| Offensive Rookie of the Year | +1000 |
| Past yards | 3075.5 (-112/-112) |
| Overtaking TDs | 17.5 (-108/-112) |
Stroud has the fifth lowest odds for Offensive Rookie of the Year and is expected to post a 3,000-yard rookie season.
That would be a good debut for the number 2 overall.
Do we expect anything different for Stroud or the Texans this season?
Houston Texans selection
I think the market underestimates Stroud and the Texans.
Yes, the whole team is new. There’s a new head coach, offensive coordinator, defensive coordinator and quarterback. None of these guys have ever held those positions at the NFL level.
But new is good considering how bad Houston has been in recent seasons.
Houston Texans running back Dameon PierceIcon Sportswire via Getty Images
Coach Ryans has built defensive powerhouses in San Francisco and the closet isn’t empty in Houston.
EDGE Will Anderson and CB Derek Stingley Jr. bring you highly acclaimed perspectives on two of the most critical positions.
The Texans began to improve their defenses in the second half of 2022 – Houston was ranked 10th in the DVOA metric of Football Outsiders’ Defense as of Week 9.
I don’t think this session is as bad as many think and Ryans is a far better coach than Lovie Smith.
I like what Houston did on offense, especially on the offensive line.
They already had a great tackle duo in Laremy Tunsil and Tytus Howard. They improved in defense with the signing of Shaq Mason and in the middle with the signing of Juice Scruggs.
New offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik is a Shanahan student, so we can expect a more aggressive offensive line play that includes wide-zone systems and more drawing blockers. The Texans also hired a new offensive coach and imported Chris Strausser from Indianapolis.
Jacob Martin, the defensive end of the Houston TexansIcon Sportswire via Getty Images
If we see a significant improvement in line play, running back duo Dameon Pierce and Devin Singletary should be hard-hitting and explosive.
A good offensive line and solid running game will ease the pressure on Stroud, who will throw at an admittedly weak receiving core.
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However, Stroud is a precise quarterback who should be able to make the right decisions and avoid mistakes. That might be Houston’s top pick as a quarterback given what the running game is like.
The Texans also retained special teams coach Frank Ross, who managed the second-best special teams unit in the NFL last season, according to the Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric.
In addition, the Texans can expect positive regression, having finished 3-6 in one-score games last year and having the second-largest difference in the NFL between expected Pythagorean wins (4.9) and actual wins (3 ,0).
Meanwhile, Houston’s 2023 schedule is very soft. The Texans are expected to have the seventh-biggest skill level in the NFL and play all 17 games on Sundays, so there are no weird weeks or weird destinations.
The Texans are aiming for solid defense, a vastly improved offense, improved quarterback play and better close-game luck on a more manageable schedule.
They also have no reason to back down, having relinquished their 2024 first-round pick to Arizona as part of the Anderson Draft Day deal.
Betting on the NFL?
I think the Texans will surprise the NFL next season. While I’m not exactly sure where the biggest improvements will come from, I’m betting Houston will have seven or more wins.
The game: Houston Texans over 6.5 wins (+116, FanDuel)
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