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Bitcoin’s new “worst case scenario” brings the BTC bear market near $6,000

Bitcoin (BTC) still risks a drop below $7,000 in this bear market, recent worst-case scenario forecast warns.

In its latest live stream, which aired on Nov. 24, trading platform DecenTrader revealed targets for a BTC price bottom.

Analyst flags “oldschool, rock-hard support” for Bitc

As the latest in a series of BTC/USD forecasts, Decentrader co-founder Filbfilb has spotted a potential drop below $10,000 for the pair.

“In my worst-case scenario, we’d probably end up there, like a rock-solid old-school support,” he said of a bidding zone around $6,500.

This is where buyers would “probably start to refill their pockets,” he added, noting that this level was about double the 2018 bear market and the March 2020 COVID-19 crash lows.

While “unlikely” under the current circumstances, Filbfilb nonetheless argued that more significant impacts from the FTX implosion could remove supply support further up the order book, opening the door for such a capitulation event.

“Until we have more information that seems unlikely and like I said, I think the fact that we didn’t shed harder than we could have bodes well for the Bulls,” he continued.

Indeed, given recent events, as Cointelegraph reported, BTC/USD has managed to dip less from its previous all-time highs than during previous bear markets.

BTC/USD price decline from all-time highs chart. Source: Glassnode

A related debate revolves around whether a deeper dive is needed to reach these lows and end the current downtrend.

Filbfilb commented that in order to bottom while avoiding the worst-case scenario, crypto would need to “dodge some bullets” in terms of FTX fallout, and that macro markets would also need to remain strong.

BTC price is navigating bear market pits

Elsewhere in the livestream, Decentrader co-founder Philip Swift, also the creator of data resource LookIntoBitcoin, explained other recent chart phenomena.

Related: Will Bitcoin Hit $110,000 in 2023? 3 reasons to be bullish on BTC right now

Among them was the rising number of bitcoin wallets, which now contain at least 1 BTC, with the number soon to surpass the one million mark for the first time.

This is a direct result of exchange withdrawals given FTX, Swift said.

Although 18 months from now, the next bitcoin block subsidy halving in 2024 will continue to be a key narrative focus going forward, he added.

That, in turn, will have “some positive implications for price in terms of media coverage and anticipation of this next halving event.”

A comparison chart showed that BTC/USD is currently going through the lowest part of its four-year cycle, showing a strong correlation between 2014 and 2018.

Bitcoin bull market comparison chart (screenshot). Source: Decentrader

The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed herein are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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