A number of bitcoin futures contracts on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) are expiring today. Meanwhile, analysts are pondering the potential impact on BTC price.
On March 31, an estimated 8,171 bitcoin futures contracts will close and settle on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.
The last open price on March 30 was $28,355, slightly higher than Bitcoin’s current price of $28,182.
The CME reported volume of 16,139 contracts and open interest (OI) of 13,971 as of March 29th. OI is a measure of the total number of outstanding futures contracts that have not yet been settled.
Bitcoin Futures Volume and OI – CME
According to Coinglass, the total open interest for all BTC futures contracts is around $11.4 billion. This is significantly down from previous highs of around $13 billion (October 2022) and $18 billion (April 2022). This suggests that the impact of futures expiry on the BTC spot market will be minimal.
Bitcoin futures open interest / Source: CoinGlass
Bitcoin futures remain bullish
Additionally, TradingView is showing a buy signal for CME bitcoin futures, suggesting that derivatives markets are still bullish.
Analysts have observed that there was a close above the middle band of the Gaussian channel on the five-day CME futures chart. This is bullish and could lead to next levels around $33,000 according to one analyst.
CME Futures 5D Gaussian – Twitter/@neilarora16
Another noted that the CME bitcoin futures gap has closed and a new one is forming. The gap refers to the difference in BTC and CME contract prices that forms over the weekend when the exchange closes. Additionally, these CME gaps tend to get “filled” as the market corrects back into the gap.
$BTC closed the 27.3-28.7k CME gap. However, it recently opened a new gap from 20.3k to 21.1k. There are currently 4 gaps left on the daily bitcoin futures chart:
❌34.4k-35.2k
❌ 20.3k-21.1k
❌ 11.2k
❌ 9.7k-9.9k pic.twitter.com/wYYtdS5PSJ
— Christian Ott (@rocketfan) March 30, 2023
Earlier this month, CME Group announced event contract trading on Bitcoin futures. The daily expiring cash-settled contracts will further complement the existing suite of ten event contracts, said Tim McCourt, global head of equity at CME Group.
BTC Price Outlook
Bitcoin is currently in a short-term bullish pattern. Therefore, the futures contract expiration is unlikely to have a major impact on the markets.
For the day, BTC is down 1.4% to $28,185. However, over the past two weeks, it has continued to rise by 12%.
BTC/USD 1 day – BeInCrypto
The asset recovered all losses from the FUD related to the CFTC Binance lawsuit earlier this week. It fell to $26,770 on March 28 but quickly recovered.
The main resistance is still around $30,000, so this is the target for further upside.
Disclaimer
In accordance with the guidelines of the Trust Project, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be taken as financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to accurate, unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always do your own research and consult a professional before making any financial decisions.
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