Week 0 was an interesting week in college football, highlighted by an upset in the Big Ten and several dominant performances by unexpected teams. Including FCS competitions, there were 14 games in all matching Division I opponents. Although this will be the smallest total number of games for a week through December, it was still enough to cause a noticeable move in my power ratings.
Biggest climbers
1. Vanderbilt (+4 points)
The Commodores enjoyed a huge season-opening win in Hawaii with a total of 63 points and a 601-yard offensive gain. In the third quarter alone, they scored 35 points, which is their highest total in a game since November 2020.
2. Illinois (+3 points)
The Illini also scored a blowout win in Week 0, dominating defensively over Wyoming by keeping the Cowboys to six points and 30 total passing yards. Illinois faces its first conference Test Saturday in Indiana.
3. Florida Atlantic (+2.5 points)
I brought the Owls up 2 1/2 points for their loss to Charlotte on Saturday. FAU was only a seven-point favorite, but won 43:13. The bright spot was the rushing attack, which gained 218 yards on 49 carries, the latter setting a high for all of last season.
Biggest Moves Down
1. Hawaii (-4 points)
The Rainbow Warriors were listed as one of my most unstable teams going into the season, and that was particularly evident defensively when they gave up more than 600 yards to a Vanderbilt team that was expected to struggle offensively this season Has.
2. Wyoming (-3 points)
There are obvious concerns after just one game where the Cowboys can’t generate anything through the air and no Josh Allen is waiting in the wings.
3. Charlotte (-2.5 points)
It was a hugely disappointing opening-day performance for the 49ers, who brought back 14 starters including senior QB Chris Reynolds. He played reasonably well but the team was overwhelmed up front on both sides of the ball.
Effective strength ratings
After not playing in Week 0, Georgia continues to accelerate effectiveness ratings for 2022 based on adjustments made since last season. With a 45.2 ES rating, the Bulldogs own a +0.8 point lead over Ohio State and a +2.3 point lead over Alabama, meaning the strength rating calculation for Coach Kirby Smart’s team as such a big favorite against any neutral team. These obviously differ from my power ratings and are purely based on statistical measurements.
Betting Ratings
The Bettors Ratings reflect what the betting markets think of teams in 2022. My calculations for the start of each season in this gauge are based on last year’s ending position, any adjustments made to overall strength since the end of last season, plus any unusual futures markets that deviate from my forecasts. Alabama is the highest-ranked team in my Bettors Ratings, by a 0.1 point lead over Ohio State (-43.2 to -43.1) and a 2.5 point lead over Georgia (-43.2 to – 40.7). The larger the negative number, the better for that rating set.
Current Ratings
The current ratings, which denote the teams that have played best over the past few weeks, do not take full effect until the teams have played an average of three or four games. For that week, they reflect the effective strength ratings. In the next two weeks they are based on manual adjustments.
Schedule strength assessments
The schedule strength ratings, which currently reflect the difficulty of each FBS team’s 2022 schedule, will also not take full effect until each team has played a few games. For now, however, note that Arkansas faces the toughest schedule for 2022, starting with a Saturday date with Cincinnati, the first Group 5 team to qualify for the CFP last year. Georgia Tech, which hosts Clemson on Monday, is a close second and Auburn third. The easiest list of any FBS team in 2022 belongs to Florida International, who are starting their quest to improve a 1-11 season with a Thursday game with Bryant. Note that none of the FCS teams show a Schedule Strength Rating until at least week 3.
FCS teams
Leading my FCS Power Ratings earlier in the season is North Dakota State, which at 47.5 points is level with Washington from the Pac-12. The Bisons will get a chance to prove their worth in this league when they travel to Tucson on September 17 to face Arizona. South Dakota State is next with a 46 rating, followed by Sam Houston State and Montana, each at 38.5. FCS Power Ratings and all Strength Ratings on a game-by-game basis are updated weekly for VSiN Pro subscribers.
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