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Big 12 Betting Preview 2022: Futures, Odds, Conference Win Favorites, Regular Season Best Overall Wins

As the start of the college football season nears, it’s worth seeing how odds makers are hampering the power conferences. In our latest betting preview, we look at the Big 12.

Last season, Baylor came out of nowhere to secure the Big 12 championship. While the last play mattered and Baylor was inches away from losing the championship, Dave Aranda’s group stayed the course and notched up 12 wins. Despite being the preseason favorite in the Big 12 media poll, oddsmakers aren’t quite as confident in the Bears, giving them the fourth-best odds to win the conference.

If you’re interested in getting involved in the Big 12 futures markets, you’ve come to the right place at Sporting News. Below we’ll break down the top teams, a sleeper and a long shot that could win the Big 12 championship.

MORE: Big 12 football predictions | Big Ten Betting Preview

Full List of Big 12 Championship 2022 Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

school opportunities
Oklahoma +200
Texas +280
State of Oklahoma +550
Baylor +650
TCU +1200
State of Kansas +1200
State of Iowa +1600
West Virginia +3000
texas tech +4500
Kansas +25000

Big 12 Champion Betting Odds 2022: Favourites

Oklahoma Sooners +200 (implied probability 33.33 percent)

Despite many coaching and roster changes following Lincoln Riley’s departure, Oklahoma remains the team to beat in the 2022 season. A big reason the Sooners are the favorites to win the Big 12 is their tight schedule. The Sooners get Oklahoma State (-7) and Baylor (-9.5) at home while taking on Texas (-2.5) on neutral field in what is expected to be their toughest three conference games.

The offense is now led by offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby, coming from Ole Miss but bringing in one of his former QBs at UCF, Dillon Gabriel. Gabriel’s best passing performance (3,653 yards) came in 1919 with Lebby as his OC. Gabriel’s reception corps of Marvin Mims, Theo Wease and Drake Stoops should ensure a smooth transition. While the Sooners are playing at a fast pace on offense, Lebby will likely still rely on the run-and-play action game. Last season at Ole Miss, Lebby’s offense ran on early downs 56 percent of the time, and there’s a chance the Sooners will repeat that number. OU’s backfield consists of true freshman Jovantae Barnes and junior Eric Gray who pull off a solid one-two. Protection when passing isn’t as good either, so there’s a chance one of their other backs might play a bigger role in passing.

The defensive side of football is where you expect Oklahoma to improve in the near future with Brent Venables returning to Norman. However, given Venables’ complex defensive system, there’s a chance this defense might take some time to unfold. Venables’ first season at Clemson was their worst defensive year, but even in their first year as OU head coach, remember this defense ranks in the top 100 in expected additional points (EPA) per pass allowed and pass efficiency, something that it was couldn’t last year. Given their relatively easy schedule, Oklahoma has a real shot at making it back into the conference championship game.

Texas Longhorns +280 (implied probability 26.32 percent)

Texas has a good shot at leading the Longhorns in the Big 12 championship game in Steve Sarkisian’s second season. While the Longhorns failed to secure bowl eligibility in Sark’s first season, 2022 is set to be a much more complete season for the Burnt Orange. While their last six losses look bad on the surface, Texas led by double digits in the second half against Baylor, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State.

Texas’ biggest offseason move (other than signing Arch Manning) was the addition of former five-star QB Quinn Ewers. Ewers enters the QB room in a “QB contest” with Hudson Card, but having watched the spring game and knowing how long Card has held the football, it’s only a matter of time before Ewers is announced as a starter. Ewers’ cap is much higher than Card’s, and even if Ewers turns football early in the season, he only needs meaningful reps at this point in his career. Ewers will have plenty of talent around to help ease the transition as RB Bijan Robinson has a legitimate chance of winning the Heisman. Robinson’s elusive ability and ability to help with the passing game earn him a chance to come to New York City in December.

The Texas WR room is packed, led by sophomores Xavier Worthy and Isaiah Nayor (Wyoming transfer). Jordan Whittington is an effective underman who receives a threat, while TEs Ja’Tavion Sanders and Jahleel Billingsley (Alabama transfer) will also see respectable target share. The OL’s ability to maintain pass protection seems to be the only thing holding this offense back and as they improve the skies are the limit.

Defense needs to turn things around after ranking 91st for passing efficiency and allowing big plays after missed tackles. Texas brought in ex-TCU head coach Gary Patterson to help with 4-2-5 defense. It’s likely the Longhorns will play more pressman coverage to open up their passing rush as they haven’t been able to build much pressure last season.

Texas has a chance to end the season with losses to Alabama and Oklahoma 10-2, but a 9-3 or even 8-4 seems the most likely. A 9-3 result could result in a trip to the Big 12 championship game as Austin’s future remains bright.

RELATED: DeCourcy’s take on Texas

Big 12 Champion Betting Odds 2022: Best Sleeper

Kansas State Wildcats +1200 (implicit probability 7.69 percent)

Given their current price to win the Big 12 12-1, Kansas State is our pick to make some noise in 2022. Oklahoma State and Baylor are the two teams priced ahead of K-State, but given the production volume both teams need to replace, the Wildcats’ chances of winning the conference offer better value.

We understand why the Bears were picked to win the conference in the preseason poll, but there’s a very small chance of that actually turning out to be the case. Baylor is struggling on defense and losing his top two RBs is going to really hurt.

Kansas State’s offense is led by newly appointed OC Collin Klein, and his system will most likely play faster. Last year, K-State was last in FBS in games per game (57.5). Ex-Nebraska QB Adrian Martinez will be Klein’s new QB after Skylar Thompson’s graduation. Martinez is a top runner, but his accuracy and turnover issues have always plagued him. In the 38 games he started in Nebraska, Martinez threw 30 interceptions while fumbling football 34 times. He also had to undergo off-season shoulder surgery after suffering a series of injuries last season.

Defensive Front Seven is K-State’s best unit, highlighted by Felix Anudike-Uzomah and Eli Huggins. The secondary isn’t great, finishing 76th in passing efficiency last year. Overall, the Wildcats could surprise and potentially pull off eight wins as K-State adds more creases and pre-snap moves to its offense and deploys an impressive defense.

Big 12 Champion Betting Odds 2022: Best Long Shot

West Virginia Mountaineers +3000 (implicit probability 3.23 percent)

The Mountaineers are a long shot for a reason, but the addition of JT Daniels under center gives West Virginia fans some hope for a competitive Big 12 regular season. When he’s healthy, Daniels is an effective signal caller who’s an offensive player can improve, which averaged just 5.4 yards per game (94th in FBS) last season. An offensive line that brings back all five starters is one of West Virginia’s strengths on offense as their experience and talent lead to a respectable end to Neal Brown’s fourth season.

The defense probably won’t be as strong as last year, but it will still be difficult for the offense. A big reason the Mountaineers are our long shot has to do with having both Baylor and Oklahoma at home. At 30-1, they might end up playing better football than their current price suggests.

Big 12 Football Betting Odds 2022: Best Regular Season Win Overall Over/Under

Oklahoma OVER 9.5 wins (-120)

A 10-2 finish in Brent Venables’ season one is a real possibility with a solid signal caller in Dillon Gabriel paired with talented WR and RB space. With the Sooners likely to be favored in all 12 games, they can still lose two contests and hit the OVER. Buy into Venables and the Sooners in year one.

Kansas State OVER 6.5 wins (-125)

As mentioned earlier, expect better offensive performance from the Wildcats now that Collin Klein is their new OC. While we left Deuce Vaughn out of their team breakdown, we certainly haven’t forgotten the man who led all players in WAR last season. Vaughn’s big-play ability will be a much-needed asset and can take some of the pressure off Adrian Martinez and lead the Wildcats to more than seven wins.

Kansas OVER 2.5 wins (-135)

The Fighting Lance Leipold’s showed some strength last season, beating Texas while remaining competitive with Oklahoma, West Virginia and TCU. While we didn’t create this preview soon enough to reveal Kansas’ overall regular-season win at 1.5, we still believe the Jayhawks have a three-win shot.

Big 12 Football Early ATS Picks 2022

Sep 2: TCU -8.5 (-110) @ Colorado

Colorado will be one of the best performing conference teams and TCU is a bit undervalued in the betting markets. Sonny Dykes and the Horned Frogs probably won’t do much to contend for a Big 12 championship in conference play, but they have more than enough to secure a double-digit win at Folsom Field in Week 1.

Nov. 12: Oklahoma -7 (-110) vs. Oklahoma State

Oklahoma is retaliating at Bedlam this season after a heartbreaking loss at Stillwater last year. Oklahoma State, along with DC Jim Knowles, has a lot of production to replace on the defensive side of football. Spencer Sanders pulled off the most impressive game of his career with the Cowboys’ comeback win over Notre Dame at the Fiesta Bowl, but with more pressure this season, Oklahoma grabs a comfortable win over the Pokes in mid-November.

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