Best NFL playoff prop bets: Patrick Mahomes leads passing yards, Giants and Vikings light up the scoreboard

Most Playoff Passing Yards: Patrick Mahomes +300

While Josh Allen (+235) is the clear favorite in this market, we back Mahomes to lead all players in the playoffs in passing yards. Allen is considered a favorite here as the Bills play Super Wild Card Weekend while the Chiefs rest for the Divisional round, but we just can’t bet against the MVP favorite. Mahomes calmed some doubters, throwing for a career-high 5,250 yards in a season that had some wondering how dominant the offense would be without Tyreek Hill, Demarcus Robinson and Byron Pringle.

As we make Mahomes the playoff passing yards leader, we’re predicting another Super Bowl run for Kansas City and giving Mahomes three games to achieve that feat. Mahomes appears to be setting fire to either the Los Angeles or Jacksonville defenses next week, setting him up for a showdown against the Bills or Bengals in the AFC championship game. Even though Kansas City lost to both teams in the regular season, there’s reason to believe they’re out for revenge en route to Super Bowl LVII.

Other considerations: Joe Burrow (+400), Brock Purdy (+1000)

Most Playoff Rushing Yards: Christian McCaffrey +450

We wanted to shoot a little longer here, but we can’t imagine not taking Run CMC to guide all players in rushing yards. Similar to Mahomes and Kansas City, we predict a Super Bowl LIV rematch between the 49ers and the Chiefs. If San Francisco can return to the Super Bowl, there’s a decent chance McCaffrey will lead all players in rushing yards, with the 49ers playing in four total postseason games.

Now that we’re into the postseason, it’s not crazy to think McCaffrey can average 20+ carries per game. He’s only had one 20-plus carry game in a 49ers uniform, but the playoffs are a different beast and CMC is poised to be unleashed. Elijah Mitchell’s return certainly limits his options, but even with another dependable back to charm him every now and then, McCaffrey is our pick to get all players to hurry when all is said and done.

Other considerations: Jalen Hurts (+1000), Isiah Pacheco (+1200)

Most Playoffs Gaining Yards: Ja’Marr Chase +900

For leader of yards, we don’t take a Chiefs or 49ers player, even though those are our Super Bowl picks. Rather, we’re betting on Chase leading all receivers, since we could see that the Chiefs and 49ers’ offenses are a little more spread out. Chase, who finished the regular season with the sixth-highest goal percentage (29.3 percent), is always a safe bet for consistent performance, and his big-play ability makes him even more tempting to show up in the playoffs. While the defense will try to clamp him, Chase is still capable of getting past the top of the defense, and if he breaks free, a handful of big catches could lead him to a monster postseason.

Other considerations: Travis Kelce +1000, Tee Higgins +2000

Super wildcard weekend prop specials

Each team scores 1+ FG: Yes +750

At +750 (implicit probability 11.76 percent), we have to bet on all 12 teams scoring at least one field goal this weekend. All 32 teams in the league averaged more than one field goal per game during the regular season, and while it may be difficult for the Seahawks, Dolphins and Ravens to get on offense, we think they at least can to generate a scoring drive that results in a field goal being scored.

Game with the highest score: Giants-Vikings +300

Sunday’s Giants-Vikings game has the highest total of super wildcard weekends (48), and we’re anticipating another high-scoring contest between two offenses who nearly combined for 800 yards in Week 16. Both Minnesota and New York ranked in the top half of the league in offensive success rate, as both offensive players could well have 28-plus points. Additionally, both defenses rank in the bottom half of the league in drop-back EPA, so we expect both QBs to find success through the air again. It also doesn’t hurt that this game will be played in perfect conditions at US Bank Stadium, which ranks as the highest-scoring game of the Super Wildcard weekend.

Highest Scoring Team: Minnesota Vikings +650

With the Vikings-Giants game being the highest scoring game of the super wild card weekend, we’re betting on Minnesota’s offense showing up on Sunday. We’re not high enough of the Vikings when it comes to putting up a Super Bowl run, but they’re still capable of knocking out the Giants this week. Justin Jefferson has been kept quiet for the past two weeks but slightly improved his 12-catch, 133-yard and one-TD performance against the Giants in Week 16. As of Week 10, the Giants defense is 31st in EPA/play (.051), and it’s prone to allowing chunk plays when its pass rush doesn’t make it home.

Other considerations: Buffalo Bills (+350), New York Giants (+1200)

Lowest Scoring Team: Seattle Seahawks +450

Establishing scoring drives against a 49ers defense that leads the league in EPA/Play is a tough task, and we don’t expect Saturday’s Seattle offense to find much success. Seattle is limping into the postseason, losing five of its last eight games and has been pretty lucky to even sneak into the playoff field. Since starting their cold steak in Week 10, the Seahawks’ offense has ranked in the bottom half of the league in both the drop-back EPA and the rush EPA, meaning trouble against an elite 49ers defense.

Other considerations: Miami Dolphins (+300), Baltimore Ravens (+350)