Since we are now two weeks into the MLB season, it is an opportune time to consider some MLB division futures bets. Since there is only a small selection of player achievements, it is still early enough to find value in the market.
A major storyline that dominated this season was the unfortunate spate of injuries to starting players. These violations have had a significant impact on various futures markets and led to speculation about their causes, including the new pitch clock rule implemented last season. Eury Perez and Shane Bieber are among the pitchers slated for Tommy John surgery, and Spencer Strider could follow suit. Additionally, in the last three days alone, Framber Valdez, Nick Pivetta and Josiah Gray have landed on the injured list with elbow problems. The impact of these pitcher injuries on teams' overall performance as the season progresses will be interesting to watch.
Given this situation, let's assess which teams are currently best positioned to compete for division titles.
Betting on division winners
Baltimore Orioles win the AL East (+270, FanDuel)
While the New York Yankees seem to be the obvious choice for the AL East with a 10-2 start in the league, it's worth considering the Baltimore Orioles as a potential threat. According to FanGraphs, the Orioles are projected to win 86.2 games compared to the Yankees' projection of 90.9 games, a small margin that suggests an advantage in the Orioles' favor. Corbin Burnes, a top contender for the Cy Young Award, has been exceptional with a 1.93 ERA and 2.78 FIP and has already secured two wins. The Orioles' roster is loaded with talent, including standouts like Adleyrutschman and Gunnar Henderson, who are primed for a breakout season. After a disappointing playoff exit last year, the Orioles are ready to challenge a Yankees team under pressure, especially with ace Gerrit Cole not at full health.
Cleveland Guardians win the AL Central (+250, FanDuel)
Despite the loss of top player Shane Bieber, the Cleveland Guardians surprised many with their excellent 9-3 start and an impressive 35-run lead. Emannuel Clase excelled in the reliever role with a flawless 0.00 ERA and four saves. While Tanner Bibee and Logan Allen will have to step up in Bieber's absence, the Guardians can rely on their strong offense to compensate. Players like Steven Kwan and Andres Gimenez have started the season strong and put up impressive stats. Power hitters Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor also performed well. Cleveland's disciplined approach at the plate, ranking 4th in K% (18.9%) and 8th in batting average (.264), bodes well for their consistency. Although the Kansas City Royals and Detroit Tigers have gotten off to promising starts, it seems unlikely that they will maintain their momentum throughout the season. The Minnesota Twins remain a formidable threat in the division despite a slow 4-6 start.
One final thought
With a lot of baseball still to be played, this is an ideal time to identify teams that have the potential to win their divisions. Be on the lookout for upcoming analysis throughout the season that will highlight teams that I believe have a good shot at division wins, as well as team win totals, player bonus markets, and other future prospects.
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MLB, sports betting, DFS
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