AMIS Fertilizer Outlook – Prices “Mostly Up in September” as Russia Lifts Ban on Diesel Exports

In its October Market Monitor report, the Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) stated that “Fertilizer prices rose for most of September, as did prices for major fertilizers. Price movements for several fertilizer categories were influenced by the strength of the Indian market and uncertainty over exports from China. The market development will be influenced by both these two major players in the near future Demand for the fall application season in the Northern Hemisphere.”

AMIS Market Monitor (No. 112, October 2023).

The AMIS report states: “Fertilizer prices rose in September. In the case of natural gasPrevious concerns over Australia’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports have faded, but the extension of the facility maintenance schedule in Norway supported European gas futures. Markets should focus on monitoring inventories in Europe, which are currently near capacity. After an upward trend that began in August, Ammonia prices rose sharply in Septembersupported by major asset outages, while buyer interest was unusually high at what is normally a quiet time of year.”

AMIS Market Monitor (No. 112, October 2023).

The Market Monitor stated: “Nitrogen fertilizer prices rose in September. urea The price increase was due to uncertainty over Chinese export volumes as authorities restricted the distribution of export licenses to control domestic prices. In this context, the unexpected purchase offer from Indian Potash Ltd. (IPL) dated September 15 for support. Developments in China and India will continue to shape market sentiment in other nitrogen markets around the globe.”

AMIS Market Monitor (No. 112, October 2023).

The Monitor added: “Phosphorous fertilizer prices rose in several key markets with particular strength in the Indian market and uncertainty over export restrictions from China related to the customs inspection process. On the other hand, the earthquake in Morocco did not lead to major supply problems as initially expected. The current discussions on nutrient-based subsidy rates in India are an important factor to monitor Demand is slow in Brazil and uncertain in the United States as the price ratio of phosphate to grain will determine output levels in the fall.”

AMIS Market Monitor (No. 112, October 2023).

The AMIS report also explained: “Potash prices in Brazil, the main importing country, fell slightly in September due to abundant availability. Global values ​​are showing signs of stability.”

Illinois Production Cost Report. USDA – Agricultural Marketing Service (October 5, 2023).

Regarding diesel fuel, an additional cost to agricultural production, Financial Times writer David Sheppard reported on Friday: “Russia has lifted a diesel export ban that had led to a global supply shortage of the crucial industrial fuel and expressed concerns that Moscow would shift its energy war to the oil market.

“Moscow said in a statement on Friday that sea exports could resume as long as manufacturers send half of the diesel they produce to the domestic market, roughly in line with historical norms. The Kremlin had said it imposed the ban because of domestic shortages.

“Friday’s move triggered a sell-off in diesel markets Prices in Europe fall by more than 3 percentas fears of shortages subsided. When the ban was introduced two weeks ago, prices initially rose sharplyalthough they had already fallen amid a broader decline in energy markets.”

The FT article explained that

Diesel is the workforce fuel of the global economy and plays a crucial role in freight transport, shipping and aviation.

And Bloomberg News reported on Friday: “Russia allowed diesel exports by sea to return just weeks after imposing a ban This has sent global markets into disarray and instead taken other steps to maintain sufficient domestic fuel supplies.”

“Russia lifts diesel export ban that has roiled global markets,” Bloomberg News (October 6, 2023).

“The ban has driven up prices in Europe in an already tight market. Refineries around the world are struggling to produce enough fuel after Russia and Saudi Arabia cut off supplies of diesel-rich crude, causing inventories to fall“ said the Bloomberg article.

U.S. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Marketing Service. Grain transport report. October 5, 2023. Web: http://dx.doi.org/10.9752/TS056.10-05-2023

Elsewhere, the USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service noted in its weekly grain transportation report Thursday that “the U.S. average price for diesel fuel was high in the week ending Oct. 2.” increased by 0.7 cents compared to the previous week to $4,593 per gallon, 24.3 cents below the same week last year.”