Unsurprisingly, interest in NFL betting continues to surge with the legalization of sports betting across the country. In February 2022, our teammates will join Legal sports report estimated a Super Bowl bet amount at $964 million — an 88.3% increase from the previous year.
So, whether you’re a novice or a seasoned bettor, what concepts should you consider before betting on NFL markets? Let’s dive in.
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NFL Betting 2022: The Do’s and Don’ts
1. Understand basic terminology
There are many advanced sports betting phrases out there, but understanding them is important before getting into NFL betting.
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- Point distribution: A points spread shows first the odds maker’s and then the betting market’s best estimates of the numerical gap between two teams. Take the Super Bowl mentioned above, for example. The Rams finished as a 3.5-point favorite against the Bengals, meaning Los Angeles had to win by four points or more. Cincinnati lost the Bengals with a field goal covered the spread.
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- money line: This market is a bit simpler than the spread. Let’s say you bet $100 on the 49ers (+155) to directly beat the Cowboys in the 2022 NFL Wild Card round. Considering San Francisco won 23-17, the sportsbook would put a profit of $155 in your account – or a Total payout of $255 (including your original bet).
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- In total: Let’s take a trip back to February 7th, 2021 at Raymond James Stadium. The Buccaneers and Chiefs total, which represents the expected number of points scored in a given game, has been set at Over/Under 54.5. Despite the two high-profile offenses, they combined for only 40 points amid Tampa Bay’s resounding victory in Super Bowl 55. If you bet $100 on Under 54.5 (-110), your profit is $90.91 for a total payout of $190.91.
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- teasers: They could technically be teasing a variety of markets, but let’s focus on one in particular – a Wong teaser – coined by gaming author Stanford Wong. It aims to create positive expectancy (+EV) bets specifically for NFL spreads. Usually you will want to -6 to -8.5 favorites and +1.5 to +2.5 outsider to tease them by NFL key numbers.
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- Player Prop: Similar to a game total, this market allows bettors to determine whether a player will go over or under a certain number of points Try, yards, touchdowns, etc. Be sure to check out our prop finder throughout the NFL season, as it revolves around a strategy I’ll get to later.
2. Use bankroll management
If you are betting on the NFL for entertainment purposes only, this term may not be necessary. However, this is not the case if you want to build on your winnings over time.
Let’s introduce another term: flat bets. The game plan is to dictate the amount of money you need to bet. It’s also about wagering a fixed amount per bet, regardless of confidence level, for a set period of time (a month to a year) before systematically increasing your bankroll as that point rises.
In theory, you should limit yourself to that 1% to 5% of your bankroll per bet. For starters, if you deposit $1,000 into your DraftKings Sportsbook account, use $10 to $50 for each bet. That way you don’t skip the gun when you’re on a hot streak, or lose a lot of your bankroll when you get into a rut.
on top of that, line shopping is a critical aspect of this NFL betting approach, and TheLines is here to help. Our NFL odds comparison tool offers bettors the opportunity to bet on the best number available, thereby increasing your EV. Up to this point, having plenty of sportsbooks in your arsenal (and getting sign-up bonuses along the way) is crucial, especially if you’re waiting until Sunday morning to bet.
Nonetheless, you can quickly destroy your NFL betting bankroll by embracing the parlay fandom (specifically, parlays of the same game) that is sweeping the sports betting industry. In May alone, 48.2% of sports betting revenue in Louisiana came from parlays. They will most likely be viewed as negative EV bets, so don’t let sports betting steer you in that direction just because a $5 bettor “won” $100,000.
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