Manny Machado posted an OPS of 1,021 for the San Diego Padres. Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images/AFP.
The two-month mark is the ideal time to evaluate the markets of MLB division winners. Let’s take a look at our value picks for MLB division futures.
There’s been a lot moving in the MLB futures markets, and now is the time to look for value before previously tussling playoff contenders really get into shape.
With the calendar shifting to June, it’s the unofficial time in the middle of a long season when you’re allowed to start looking at the table with some seriousness. You’ll see some of the usual suspects at the top of the divisions, with most teams about a third of the way into the 2022 schedule. But there is ample opportunity for other clubs to step up and close the gap.
Let’s examine three teams that offer appealing value when making MLB division futures bets (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM).
Head of the MLB division
(Odds via DraftKings; odds, records and stats as of May 30th)
At least: New York Yankees (33-15), 4.5 game lead (-200)
AL headquarters: Minnesota Twins (29-19), 5.0 game lead (+115)
AL west: Houston Astros (30-18), 3.5 game lead (-370)
NL East: New York Mets (32-17), 8.5 game lead (-285)
NL headquarters: Milwaukee Brewers (30-18), 3.5 game lead (-425)
NL West: Los Angeles Dodgers (33-14), 3.0 game lead (-360)
MLB Division Winner Value Picks
- Toronto Blue Jays – AL East (+375 via BetMGM)
- Los Angeles Angels – AL West (+300 via DraftKings)
- San Diego Padres – NL West (+350 via FanDuel)
MLB Division Winner Value Picks Overview
Blue Jay (+375)
recording: 27-20
Spring is the season of bloom as flowers delight the heart and nose. But the smell emanating from the Toronto Blue Jays was downright offensive to much of the corn.
A stretch of six losses in seven games marred the Blue Jays’ month. They recorded just four wins in their first 13 games in May, but lost in unexpected ways given the attacking talent in Toronto’s roster. The Blue Jays averaged a lazy 3.15 runs per game during that span. They’re still struggling in that regard while sitting 23rd in the league on 185 runs (3.94 per contest) on the season.
But amidst all that downfall and what feels like a spiraling spiral that began in May, the Jays’ worst record was 22-20.
Since then, they’ve racked up five straight wins and the offensive line is beginning to wake from its slumber. Toronto has hit six-plus runs four times during its current run. More encouragingly, core offensive producers are springing to life like first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (two home runs and three extra base hits in his last four full games) and shortstop Bo Bichette (.856 OPS in May after a .535 in April) .
The Blue Jays are 5.5 games behind the Yankees, and the AL East league leaders have benefited from a much easier schedule while playing 19 games overall against the lowly Baltimore Orioles, Kansas City Royals and Detroit Tigers. The Jays have played 18 times against the Yankees, Houston Astros and Tampa Bay Rays.
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Angel (+300)
Recording: 27-22
Los Angeles Angels’ May was similar to Toronto’s month, only reversed.
They started off sizzling, winning 10 of their 15 games in the first two weeks. But Los Angeles has since become a crater, while winning just three times in the last 12 competitions. That run includes four games against the mediocre Texas Rangers and a four-game sweep against the Blue Jays.
The Angels have lost five straight games, largely to a bullpen resembling the Springfield tire fire. The club’s bullpen ERA has fallen to 4.02, which ranks 20th in the MLB. But bullpen performance can be inconsistent outside of the major leagues, and the Angels’ offense is capable of outpacing any pitching issues.
Los Angeles ranks third in runs (235), second in OPS (.748), and first in home runs (67). The Angels lineup is volcanic while centering around former MVP Mike Trout posting a ho-hum career high of 204 OPS+. His 1,063 OPS also leads all qualified hitters in MLB, and he ranks third in home runs with 13.
Did you somehow manage to get Trout out? Congratulations, now get on with Shohei Ohtani and his 11 homers, Taylor Ward and his .359 average, or Jared Walsh hitting 10 round trippers.
The Angels’ recent swoon has resulted in an attractive discount on a team packed with firepower in both their roster and rotation, and it’s wise to wait for the price to drop even further. Despite all their recent losses, the Angels are still just 3.5 games behind the AL West lead.
Parents (+350)
recording: 30-17
Never forget that the San Diego Padres rival the Los Angeles Dodgers, and star shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. doesn’t even have permission to swing a bat. It’s coming, and so is he, as there’s optimism Tatis will return from a wrist injury sometime in June.
Fernando Tatis Jr. is on that journey. There’s nothing more to be gained if he goes to Peoria to work. He can run and take Grounder with the team. The next scan of the wrist is scheduled when the Padres return to SD next week. There is optimism that after that he will be able to start wrestling.
— Kevin Acee (@sdutKevinAcee) May 30, 2022
The Padres still manage to tread water offensively when Tatis is absent. Infielder Manny Machado has been driving this effort while slicing up .357/.438/.583. But pitching fuels San Diego’s rise to holding the NL’s third-best record.
The club ranks sixth in MLB in ERA (3.38) and strikeouts (436). The Padres also limit opponents to a batting average of just .212, the all-time high in baseball. NL rookie-of-the-year nominee MacKenzie Gore has been the gem of the staff so far, while allowing just eight earned runs over 42 innings (a sparkling 1.71 ERA) and averaging 10.1 strikeouts per nine innings.
Combine the offensive brilliance of Machado and others with the Padres’ flame-throwing pitching baton and you have a team with a plus 27 run differential. The price will fall sharply once Tatis returns.
Where to Bet on MLB Division Winner Futures Picks
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The value picks of the MLB division winners were hit on 5/30/2022 at 2:30 p.m. ET.
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