“My dream was that one day I would live in Provincetown,” Scallion said, “but there’s clearly a housing crisis in the community, and I’ve been affected by it.”
And she has a lot of company. In communities across the state there are tens of thousands of stories that mirror Scallion’s – from teachers, firefighters, lab supervisors, engineers, nurses, and just about every other profession you can think of.
Katherine Einstein, an economics professor at Boston University, told me that when her department is looking for a new professor, real estate prices always go up. “And for people who make very good — but not biotech executive — salaries at Boston University, they can’t afford to buy in Nashville or Pittsburgh or some other cities that are attractive places to live that aren’t quite as much have as hot as a housing market.”
In fact, average prices in Massachusetts are so high that only Hawaii and California currently surpass us. In some cities, the price increases are shocking — Somerville, for example, rose an average of 56 percent between 2010 and 2020.
I’ve written before about how our reluctance to build enough housing creates tremendous racial segregation – ironic in a state where there’s much talk of justice but little action around perhaps the most important component of wealth: home ownership.
But there is another, even broader problem here. Housing costs could threaten Massachusetts’ economic future.
We’re facing a potential “brain drain,” says Michael Goodman, a professor of public policy at the University of Massachusetts Dartmouth. In this center of intellectual firepower, our greatest natural resource is not land or oil; they are talented people. And if they can’t afford to live in the state, that’s a problem.
Local business groups have been wrestling with housing costs for years, but pandemic-related price jumps may have brought us to a breaking point.
And not one person I spoke to believed that rising mortgage rates would bring prices down significantly. Basically, they agreed, we have far too little living space. According to Einstein, it’s a classic case of supply and demand.
Goodman notes that there are now more vacancies in Massachusetts than there are people to fill them. Domestic and international migration has slowed, and “in 2020, for the first time to my knowledge, there were more deaths than births in Massachusetts.”
He says Cape Cod – where Scallion has resigned from her position – is the “canary in the coal mine”.
JD Chesloff, president and CEO of the Massachusetts Business Roundtable, which represents executives, says concerns about housing are pervasive. It is “what I hear from members across the industry, from Commonwealth regions and from employers. Everyone struggles with it.” When I pressed him on which sectors were feeling the pain the most, he pressed back. The problem is too widespread to be tied to specific industries.
When the Roundtable surveyed members this year, they found that the “cost of living” was the number one reason companies gave for reducing their footprint in Massachusetts.
The roundtable report notes that local companies are increasingly hiring staff from abroad to work remotely. Since COVID, the number of Massachusetts firms with more than 10 percent of their workforce living (and working) outside of the state has nearly tripled.
And it’s easy to see why. Almost everyone has friends and neighbors who migrated to cheaper states where they could afford spacious homes and backyards for their children.
Patricia Baker (centre) with Keller Williams Realty in Newton speaks to her clients after they left this open house at 8 Brentwood Road in March 2021.Pat Greenhouse/Globe Staff
Many of us have met young people who were hoping to stay in Boston after college, perhaps to stay close to family. But they couldn’t get it to work. And then there are teachers, police officers and cooks who spend three hours a day in their cars trying to keep their favorite jobs.
A real estate developer told me he asks various people, like nurses at Mass General Hospital, where they commute from. And they’ll say things like, ‘Well, I live in Rockingham [County]New Hampshire … I get to work at 5 a.m..”
The developer, who requested anonymity because he regularly appears before city councils to get construction projects approved, told me the problem is much, much worse than people understand.
“Most communities in the Boston area just don’t want housing,” he said. Residents often object to more children in schools, more pressure on public resources, and more traffic. Many cities, he says, have sought to reduce the number of housing units developers can fit into development projects, favoring laboratory and retail space instead.
He worries that we’re building houses so slowly, and have been for so long, that even a modest increase in units will do little to address the magnitude of the problem. And affordable housing regulations have little impact when a city is willing to engage in endless litigation or impose penalties or fines that might get in their way. In fact, he has come to believe that a massive expansion of public transport may be the only viable option.
But the problem Massachusetts faces isn’t a problem for everyone.
If you’re a homeowner, particularly a single-family home in a town near Boston, the past few decades have paid off tremendously.
“In this situation, there are winners and losers,” says Goodman. “But I think the fact that the winners are disproportionately older and the losers are disproportionately younger is really creating headwind to try to reverse that demographic curse, if you will, and make it possible for younger people and younger families themselves.” build a life here in Massachusetts.”
The concern about these age differences was echoed by many people I spoke to.
Katherine Einstein and her Boston University colleague Maxwell Palmer have found that local boards and zoning commissions wield tremendous power when it comes to what types of housing are built in Massachusetts. And by examining boards, commissions, and city governments in 22 cities, they found that “homeowners, people over 50, and long-term residents (people who have lived in their homes for more than ten years) are significantly overrepresented…women and people of color significantly.” underrepresented.”
Chesloff also sees the age-related gap. “The people who generally leave [Massachusetts] tend to be younger in the workforce. The people who have a home here and work here are not looking for someone to pick them up [and leave], as well as young professionals who cannot afford to start here. Those are the ones we worry about.”
But does worry turn into action?
The fact that decision-making about housing is so decentralized does not bode well for change, although the state has the ability to reclaim a significant measure of authority if it chooses to.
The problem, Goodman notes, is that talking about housing is “a third track,” so it’s difficult for a politician to address.
And there are two opposite incentive systems. In individual cities, many well-meaning citizens want to preserve lush, spacious lawns and picturesque streets. But at the state level, these urges can wreak havoc on the economy and keep essential workers away.
Governor Baker, who is not seeking re-election this year, has acknowledged the state is sitting on an enormous, growing problem.
“The biggest headwind is our housing costs,” he told the Greater Boston Chamber of Commerce in March. “My children in particular pointed this out to me, two out of three of whom no longer live here.”
Follow Kara Miller on Twitter @karaemiller.
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