Demand for cosmetic surgery has fallen by about 50-60% since the pandemic, a veteran surgeon told Insider. REUTERS/Punit Paranjpe
- There are all kinds of economic indicators that are little known. The demand for plastic surgery could be a signal.
- Demand boomed during the pandemic as Americans with savings sought cosmetic procedures.
- A Federal Reserve study warned that U.S. consumers will run out of savings by the end of this quarter.
There are many strange economic indicators. From lipstick to men’s underwear to cardboard boxes, everything has a story to tell about the economy. Anyone looking for more inconspicuous economic signals can add plastic surgery to the list.
As inflation remains high and Americans begin to rein in spending, interest in cosmetic surgery has plummeted after a boom during the pandemic when people with deep savings sought procedures at higher prices.
According to Dr. According to Steven Williams, the president-elect of the American Society of Plastic Surgeons, demand for all cosmetic procedures — a market that includes everything from tummy tucks to nose jobs to Botox injections — has fallen by as much as 60% compared to the height of the pandemic , when many practices experienced a boom in business.
Williams said that in the universe of cosmetic procedures, demand for filler treatments is the indicator of the industry’s overall health, and it has declined sharply.
“I think that in the medical spa environment, most patients will use Botox no matter what,” he told Insider. “Most patients initially give up on the filler.”
Demand for fillers, which are more expensive than Botox injections, has fallen by about 30-40%, Williams estimated from his own practice, a sign he calls a “canary in the coal mine” for the industry.
This is another unusual indicator that amateur forecasters have used to diagnose a recession, based on the logic that Americans cut back on discretionary spending when the economy enters a downturn.
A decline in cosmetic surgery, RV purchases, lipstick sales, demand for cardboard boxes and even men’s underwear sales are seen as signs of an impending downturn.
Experts have concerns about using seemingly random data points as a barometer of economic health. According to Yaniv Konchitchki, an economist at UC Berkeley and a professional forecaster at the Federal Reserve, diagnosing a recession is more complicated than observing a decline in sales of a particular coveted luxury item.
“The problem is, that [those indicators] Relate recession to one or two observations. “They don’t really have a strong scientific stance on statistical influence,” Konchitchki said, noting that he bases his recession forecasts on real-time data on S&P 500 corporate earnings, which show a more detailed picture of consumer spending on consumer discretionary items.
The plastic bubble bursts
But in the plastic surgery industry, the decline in demand is undeniable, especially considering how well business did in 2021. Like other business owners, plastic surgeons were initially affected by the pandemic outbreak. Many have had to loan equipment like ventilators to local hospitals to keep the lights on, Williams says.
Then COVID hospitalizations began to calm down and surgeons saw a huge uptick in business that seemed unreal.
Aesthetic surgical procedures increased 54% in 2021, according to data from the Aesthetic Society, an industry group for plastic surgeons. And in a 2022 ASPS survey, more than three-quarters of U.S. plastic surgeons said their services were in higher demand compared to pre-pandemic days. 23% of this group said that business had actually doubled during this period.
Most practices saw a 30% to 70% increase in clients, Williams said. He attributes this to a combination of factors: more people were working from home, which meant it was the perfect time to recover from an intensive cosmetic treatment. Planned trips to Europe were suddenly canceled. Americans had cashed their stimulus checks and were largely trying to feel better, Williams believes.
“This really surprised most of us,” he said of the boom in plastic surgery in the wake of the pandemic. “It kind of developed into this perfect storm of factors where people said, ‘I’m ready for this. There will be no better time in the next few years.”
But enthusiasm for refreshing one’s image has waned in a tight economy as Americans now grapple with higher inflation and higher borrowing costs. According to the Aesthetic Society, the number of aesthetic surgical procedures fell by 12% last year, according to its latest statistical report. And while cosmetic procedures overall were up 19%, that’s partly because large practices are scheduling their patients about six to 12 months in advance, said Williams, who believes most companies were already feeling a slowdown in business earlier in the year.
Williams estimates that companies have now largely cleared their backlog of cosmetic surgery customers. New patients who come to his practice mention financial constraints and try to prioritize the procedures they want to have done — just a tummy tuck, for example, rather than bundling it with a handful of other procedures in a costly, one-time makeover.
“Anyone who looks at the financial situation in the United States doesn’t know exactly what recession we’re going to be in, whether we’re already in one or whether we can avoid it,” Williams said. “But it is “Clearly there’s a lot of media attention. And media attention… that impacts discretionary purchases and plastic surgery. Aesthetic plastic surgery is definitely a discretionary purchase.”
Market researchers warn of a growing risk of a recession as Americans run out of savings and spend less. Robust spending habits gave the economy a big boost last year, but Americans are expected to run out of excess savings by the end of this quarter, according to a San Francisco Fed study. Economists warn this could help tip the economy into a downturn.
NOW WATCH: Popular Videos from Insider Inc.
Is loading…
Comments are closed.