Voters are not afraid to say how bad they perceive things to be.
If you ask whether the nation is on the right track, barely a quarter of voters will say yes. When asked whether the economy is doing well, more than 65 percent say “no.”
But despite these poor ratings, voters are much more optimistic about the situation where they live. The majority believe their state's economy is doing well, and many likely believe the state – but not necessarily the nation – is on the right track.
It's a strange dilemma that has puzzled some economists and left politicians of both parties scrambling for explanations. This gap between the state of the states and the state of the nation could determine whether President Biden wins a second term and who controls Congress next year. All of this could have very different implications for how voters view candidates to represent them at the state, local and national levels.
“It's hard for me to explain because the fundamentals of our economy are really good,” said Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.), a close Biden ally, before counting down recent national economic trends, which are almost entirely positive. “We still believe that there is something wrong with the country and things are bad and going in a bad direction.”
“They say our economy is good, but the national economy stinks,” Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) said Thursday.
A recent, concrete example of this phenomenon was a Wall Street Journal poll published in early April on seven key presidential elections: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
The head-to-head results drew widespread attention, with Trump narrowly ahead in five states and essentially tied in two others. And much attention has been focused on the fact that overall, only 25 percent of voters in these states thought the country was on the right track and that only 36 percent thought the country's economy was “excellent” or “good.”
Tillis saw the poll and was surprised at how “really weak” the numbers were for North Carolina: Only 33 percent said the economy was good.
He was missing a question about how North Carolinians view their own economy: 64 percent rated it as excellent or good. Fundamentally, nearly a third of his state's voters believe the national economy remains dismal, but the Tar Heel State is doing quite well.
The same dynamic is unfolding in all seven swing states. On average, 54 percent of voters said their state's economy was excellent or good, while 43 percent said it was not good, but their views of the economy were reversed: 36 percent said it was at least good, 63 percent disapproved of the economy of the country .
Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.), who faces one of the tougher re-election fights this fall, said it makes sense that more than 50 percent of Nevadans believe their economy is solid, but she has a hard time reconciling the discrepancies to understand why only a third believe that the economy is strong.
“We see the billions of dollars from the Infrastructure Act and the Inflation Reduction Act that went to Nevada, $500 million for a program we call Home Means Nevada for affordable housing. “We have the first high-speed rail running west of the Mississippi from Las Vegas to Los Angeles,” Rosen said.
Tillis is also optimistic about North Carolina's economy, as the unemployment rate is 3.5 percent, below the national average.
“Our economy is booming,” he said, pointing to recent private investments in North Carolina worth $4 billion from a pharmaceutical manufacturer, $5 billion from a semiconductor company and $4 billion for electric vehicle battery production .
He acknowledged that the majority of the economy was on solid footing despite ongoing inflation concerns.
“The reality is that our economy is doing pretty well. Most of these other states are doing pretty well, most of them are not doing as well as North Carolina,” Tillis said.
But according to the second-term senator, any question about the country's standing – be it the economy or any other issue – becomes a simple referendum on a president's popularity.
“I could understand why they thought, 'I'm fine, but I don't like where we're going nationally.' I think this is a proxy vote or a work permit vote,” Tillis said.
Coons suggested that part of the problem comes from the media echo chambers that have continued to host battles in recent years, particularly in conservative media outlets where the economy is often downplayed.
“A hangover from the pandemic and high inflation and other political figures saying we're in a recession when we're not,” he said.
Some Democrats see this not as a problem but rather as an opportunity, with many swing state voters seeing improvements in their daily lives. They expect approval of the national outlook to be a lagging indicator that Democrats have time to show progress before the November elections.
“You can't get out of the trauma that this country and then the world has been through, with a global economic shutdown, with a pandemic, with high inflation,” Rep. Madeleine Dean (D-Pa.) said Thursday. “You don't jump out there and say, 'I'm fine now because I can take off my mask.'”
Dean said their state's slow and steady improvement in the eyes of his voters should boost Democratic sentiment.
In May 2022, when inflation remained at 40-year highs, just 25 percent of Pennsylvanians said the state was on track, according to the Franklin & Marshall College poll, which regularly tracks the state's performance. Nearly 65 percent thought things were going in the wrong direction.
But those numbers have steadily improved, and fewer than 50 percent of Pennsylvanians now say the state is heading in the wrong direction. But according to the Journal poll, nearly 70 percent of Pennsylvanians still believe the country is headed in the wrong direction.
Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro remains popular, with 54 percent approving of his performance, according to Franklin & Marshall. That is almost 20 points more than Biden's approval rating in Pennsylvania, even though in this survey the incumbent president was ahead of the ex-president in a direct duel.
Shapiro isn't the only popular swing state governor.
In Georgia, Republican Gov. Brian Kemp has an approval rating that almost exactly matches voters' opinion of the state's economy (59 percent rate it as good, 38 percent as poor, according to the Journal poll). In North Carolina, Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper's popularity far exceeds the ratings of the state's senators and candidates to replace him.
In Wisconsin, where the Republican-dominated legislature has clashed with him for years, Gov. Tony Evers (D) is also much more popular than any other figure in the state.
According to the Journal poll, 57 percent of Wisconsin voters think their economy is excellent or good, while just 40 percent dislike it.
But when you ask Wisconsin voters about the national economy, they flip those numbers. And when asked about the country's overall direction, only 31 percent say it is on the right track.
Tillis believes the national malaise is reflected in a range of issues, almost all of which are bad for Biden, including the border crisis, crime and crises abroad.
“I think it’s immigration. I think it's the economy. I think it’s international leadership,” he said. “There’s no other way to explain it.”
Some of this is a new normal and is similar to the axiom of a previous generation that voters hated Congress but loved their own congressman.
In Virginia, for example, 53 percent of voters favor the administration of Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin and 49 percent favor the administration of the Democratic-controlled Legislature in Richmond, according to a Roanoke College poll last month.
Only 37 percent of Virginians approved of Biden's performance, while only 16 percent approved of Congress.
Dean noted that inflation, which remained at a healthy 3.5 percent last month, is still a concern for voters. However, she remains optimistic that the overall economy will continue to grow.
Those things, coupled with the liberal energy fueled by abortion bans established in many states, give Democrats a good chance, she said.
“People are feeling these things, one area at a time,” Dean said of the local economy. “There is plenty of time. Consider women's choice, women's reproductive health – there is plenty of time for a very big Biden victory.”
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