Under Biden, more Americans say U.S. economy tops China’s

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Under Biden, more Americans say U.S. economy tops China’s

President Biden’s economy has been a bit of a political puzzle, with sky-high job-creation figures competing in the public’s mind with soaring inflation that has smothered at lot of real wage growth.

The mood’s pretty dark. Just 16% of Americans rate current economic conditions as “excellent” or “good,” 83% see them as “only fair” or poor,” and 72% think things are getting worse, according to a late-March Gallup poll. Just 23% see improvement ahead.

But in one very specific area, the public is cheering: Under Biden, more Americans say the United States is the world’s top economic power than assign the top slot to China, according to newly released findings from the nonpartisan Pew Research Center.

• Forty-eight percent of Americans say the United States is the world’s leading economic power, against 38 percent for China. (Six percent say the European Union, while five percent say Japan.)

Before shrugging this off as just an example of rah-rah data, consider that the numbers haven’t been static. At all.

• In 2022, Pew found the United States and China were tied on this question, with 43% apiece.
• In 2020, China had a lopsided advantage: 54% of Americans said Beijing oversaw the world’s top economy, against just 33% for Washington.

There’s something of a partisan split: 52% of Democrats say the top slot belongs to the United States, against a third who say China, while Republicans split 46%-45% in favor of the United States.

This can be expected to shape the domestic political debate about how serious a threat China poses to the United States If you think China has the world’s top economy, you’re probably more likely to see them as a menace than if you think they’re a distant second. And maybe vice versa.

But the Pew poll doesn’t detail the “why” of this phenomenon. Past Pew polls have shown that global perceptions of the relative strength of the world’s top two national economies shifted in the Great Recession, when the United States lost much of its international prestige while China gained.

Did the resurgent economy, freed from covid restrictions, change Americans’ perceptions?

One thing is clear, the shift in the Pew poll isn’t an outlier. Gallup polls have yielded similar findings. In late March, Gallup found 44% of Americans said the U.S. is the top world economy, against 37% a year ago. The number saying China fell from 50% to 42% over the same period.

“The U.S. and China now essentially tie, but China led by a significant margin in 2021 and the U.S. did in 2020. In most prior years, China led, although the U.S. was the overwhelming choice when the question was first asked in 2000,” Gallup said.

• In 2000, 65% pointed to the United States as the world’s leading economy, against 10% for China (and 16% for Japan).
• But the United States position steadily eroded while China steadily grew, and in 2008 — Great Recession! — Gallup found 40% giving the top slot to China and 33% giving it to the United States.
• China dominated by about 20 percentage points over the next ten years or so. In 2018, China’s edge was a razor-thin 44%-42%. By 2020, the United States was up 50%-39%. But in 2021, China was back up 50%-37%.

Gallup’s partisan breakdown is pretty interesting, especially the drop among Independents saying China is the world’s top economic power.

Who’s the leading economic power in the world today?

• For Democrats: 35% said the U.S., 47% said China.
• For Independents: 35% said the U.S., 54% said China
• For Republicans: 43% said the U.S., 48% said China.

• For Democrats: 49% said the U.S., 40% said China.
• For Independents: 44% said the U.S., 40% said China
• For Republicans: 39% said the U.S., 49% said China.

Ultimately, this is a pretty small sliver of the U.S. public debate about relations with China. And it’s entirely possible that Americans feel gloomy about the U.S. economy but still think it’s relatively better than China’s. But it’s pretty intriguing, and the partisan ramifications aren’t immediately clear.

This is one of those times when I would like to know what the pollsters think they’ve discovered.

See an important political story that doesn’t quite fit traditional politics coverage? Flag it for us here.

Biden says leak investigation is ‘getting close,’ downplays consequences

President Biden told reporters in Dublin on April 13 that there is no update on a leak of classified U.S. military documents. (Video: The Washington Post)

“President Biden said Thursday that an investigation into the leak of a massive trove of classified U.S. military documents is ‘getting close’ to a resolution and downplayed the fallout from secrets that have exposed U.S. spying on allies and revealed the grim prospects for Ukraine’s war with Russia, among other things,” John Wagner reports.

Russia says China agreed to secretly provide weapons, leaked documents show

“China approved ‘provision of lethal aid’ to Russia in its war in Ukraine earlier this year and planned to disguise military equipment as civilian items, according to a U.S. intercept of Russian intelligence revealed in leaked secret documents,” Karen DeYoung and Missy Ryan report.

• “According to ‘signals intelligence,’ the intelligence summary said, [Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service] reported that China’s Central Military Commission had ‘approved the incremental provision’ of weapons and wanted it kept secret. The report did not indicate the source of the SVR’s information.”

Jury selection begins in the Dominion defamation case against Fox News

“Jury selection in the Dominion Voting Systems defamation case is set to begin Thursday morning, as the Delaware court works to identify 12 jurors and six alternates to hear the arguments against Fox News and Fox Corp,” NBC News’s Jane C. Timm reports.

Appeals court temporarily keeps abortion pill available but limits access

“A federal appeals court late Wednesday temporarily blocked a decision by a judge in Texas to suspend U.S. government approval of a key abortion medication but set significant restrictions on the pill that could limit access nationwide,” Perry Stein, Ann E. Marimow and Niha Masih report.

Key context: Unpacking the flawed science cited in the Texas abortion pill ruling

Lunchtime reads from The Post

Leaker of U.S. secret documents worked on military base, friend says

“The man behind a massive leak of U.S. government secrets that has exposed spying on allies, revealed the grim prospects for Ukraine’s war with Russia and ignited diplomatic fires for the White House is a young, charismatic gun enthusiast who shared highly classified documents with a group of far-flung acquaintances searching for companionship amid the isolation of the pandemic,” Shane Harris and Samuel Oakford report.

Divided court leaves constitutional issue at Guantánamo unresolved

“The United States may not be allowed to keep a man imprisoned in Guantánamo Bay after he is no longer deemed a threat, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit ruled in an opinion released Wednesday. But the court disappointed advocates for prisoners by leaving unresolved the question of what constitutional protections he and other prisoners at the military facility have,” Rachel Weiner and Spencer S. Hsu report.

The West hoped Lula would be a partner. He’s got his own plans.

“In his first months in office, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has declined to condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine, allowed Iranian warships to dock in Rio de Janeiro and dispatched a senior adviser to meet with Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro,” Moriah Balingit and Meaghan Tobin report.

• “On Friday, Lula heads to Beijing, the finale of a three-day trip to China. More than 200 Brazilian business leaders headed to China ahead of Lula’s arrival to hash out a flurry of deals that will bring Brazil closer to its largest trading partner at a time when relations between Washington and Beijing have grown increasingly tense. Lula’s schedule includes a stop at a Shanghai facility of Huawei, the telecommunications giant that has been subject to U.S. sanctions.”

A rift is growing in the Republican Party over birth control

“Iowa Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds has backed a plan to allow residents who are 18 and older to receive birth control from a pharmacist without a prescription. The Republican-controlled Senate last month approved legislation to permit it,” the 19th’s Barbara Rodriguez reports.

• “But the bill is moving through the statehouse as a rift is growing in the Republican Party over birth control, with some anti-abortion groups opposing access. Similar legislation, to expand or protect birth control access, has passed in both liberal and conservative states in recent years. But with the Supreme Court’s June decision ending a federal right to abortion, states have taken on reproductive health care, and some conservatives are increasingly tying abortion and birth control.”

If Tennessee’s legislature looks broken, it’s not alone

“Nationwide, candidates for roughly four of every 10 state legislative seats run unopposed in general elections. And across the country, one-party control of state legislatures, compounded by hyperpartisan politics, widespread gerrymandering, an urban-rural divide and uncompetitive races, has made the dysfunction in Tennessee more the rule than the exception,” the New York Times’s Michael Wines reports.

• “The lack of competition means incumbent lawmakers face few consequences for their conduct. And their legislative actions are driven in large part by the fraction of partisans who determine their fates in primary elections, the only political contests where they face serious opposition.”

Biden administration to widen Medicaid and ACA health coverage to DACA immigrants

“The Biden administration is proposing new rules that would allow immigrants covered by the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program to qualify for health insurance through Medicaid and Affordable Care Act marketplaces, the White House announced Thursday,” Amy Goldstein reports.

• “The plan, which the White House says would benefit up to 580,000 young people brought to the United States as children would broaden the definition of who qualifies for these two insurance programs in which the federal government has a role.”

Black voters gave Biden the White House. They may determine whether he stays there

“We are talking about movement on the fringes of a mainstay of Democratic politics, for sure, but recent elections have shown that even the slightest gradation matters. Biden’s favorability ratings among Black voters have shifted from 84% right after he took office in 2021 to 74% at the end of March 2023, according to YouGov/Economist polling. (That’s still better than Biden’s 46% favorable rating at the start of his term among White voters, which has since slipped to 40%,)” Philip Elliott writes for TIME.

Biden infrastructure focus turns to celebrating new bridges

“The Biden administration is closing out a three-week push to highlight the benefits of infrastructure investments in local communities by awarding nearly $300 million to help repair or replace more than a dozen bridges across the country,” the `’s Zeke Miller reports.

Which states make the cleanest power, visualized

“Today, the United States is running a natural experiment in electricity generation, with a patchwork of policies and power grids. To eliminate electricity’s greenhouse gas emissions, it makes sense to ask: What can we learn from the states that make cleanest power?” Harry Stevens writes.

Arizona legislators expel GOP member over baseless election claims

“The Republican-controlled Arizona House of Representatives expelled a GOP member from the chamber Wednesday after an ethics committee concluded she committed ‘disorderly behavior’ for lying about false testimony given during a February legislative hearing on elections,” Yvonne Wingett Sanchez reports.

• “The resolution to expel state Rep. Liz Harris, which passed with bipartisan support, said her conduct undermined the public’s confidence in the House, violated the ‘inherent obligation’ to protect the chamber’s integrity, and ‘violated the order and decorum’ needed to do the people’s work.”

‘A third option’: Haley-Scott rivalry intensifies in GOP presidential race

“Both [Nikki Haley] and [Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.)] are polling in the single digits, well behind Trump and [Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis]. They are widely seen as significant underdog candidates who need to find ways to break through in a Republican Party in which Trump has retained a loyal national following and DeSantis has quickly built one,” Maeve Reston and Dylan Wells report.

• “Scott and Haley are not only on a collision course when it comes to their messaging. The two South Carolina natives are also competing in overlapping donor networks and among a limited pool of voters — even as they adopt different strategies for facing off against Trump.”

The president is in Ireland today. At 2 p.m., he will attend a banquet dinner at Dublin Castle.

This message is right on the money

Gotta hand it to her, “You’ll be seeing a lot of me and lot less rats” is exactly what ya wanna hear from the Rat Czar https://t.co/4yjxMd4ISq

— Mr. Chau (@Srirachachau) April 12, 2023

Thanks for reading. See you tomorrow.