The Conservatives no longer had the greatest confidence in the growth of the British economy

The December Ipsos Political Monitor, recorded December 7-13, after September’s mini-budget and November’s autumn declaration, and amid ongoing industrial unrest, shows that the Conservatives have lost their lead over Labour, the party most trusted is going to strengthen the British economy.

Trust in the economy and other issues

When asked which party the public trusts most to boost the UK economy, 29% of Brits trust the Conservatives and 29% trust Labor (28% say no party or don’t know). In September of this year (before the mini-budget), the Conservatives were leading from 42% to 27% and had led all of 2022 up to that point.

In the meantime, on other topics:

• 37% trust Labor most to lower the cost of living (-3 points since September) and 19% trust Conservatives most (-6). 32% say no party or don’t know.
• 28% trust Labor to manage immigration (+1), 19% trust the Conservatives most (-6). 36% say no party or don’t know.
• voting intent
• Labor leads the Conservatives by 26 points:
• Work 49% (+1 since November)
• Conservative 23% (-6)
• Liberal Democrats 13% (+6)
• Green 3% (no change)
• Other 11% (+1).

Do the Conservatives deserve re-election / Are Labor ready for government?

• 61% don’t think the Conservatives deserve re-election (+1 from October), while 19% think they do (-3). 31% believed they deserved re-election around the time Boris Johnson announced he planned to leave office in July.
• 47% believe Labor is ready to form the next government (no change from October) and 31% disagree (-1). The 47% who agree Labor is ready is the highest joint score Labor has recorded since losing office in 2010.

Executive/Government Satisfaction Ratings

• 28% are satisfied with the work of Rishi Sunak as Prime Minister (-1 compared to November) and 49% are dissatisfied (+12).
• 64% of Conservative voters are satisfied with Sunak’s job performance (-2) and 19% are dissatisfied (+7).
• 36% are satisfied with Keir Starmer’s work as Labor leader and 42% are dissatisfied (no change on either metric).
• 55% of Labor voters are satisfied with Keir Starmer’s work (-2) and 29% are dissatisfied (+1).
• Only 14% are satisfied with the country’s leadership (-2 points since November) and 79% are dissatisfied (+3).

Leader Attributes

When asked if a set of 11 personality traits applied to Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer, our data shows:

• Keir Starmer leads Sunak by at least 5 points:
• Understands Britain’s problems 43% vs. 38%
• More honest than most politicians 35% vs. 25%
• He is also less likely to be associated with the negative traits of being out of contact with ordinary people (by 33% to 63%) and more style than substance (25% to 35%).

Rishi Sunak leads Keir Starmer by 5 points or more:

• Well in crisis 29% vs. 18%
• Has lots of personality 24% vs. 18%
• A good UK representative on the world stage 36% vs. 29%
• This effectively binds Sunak and Starmer together:
• Skilled Leader Starmer 34% / Sunak 33%
• Good judgment Starmer 34% / Sunak 31%
• Gives me confidence in Britain’s future Starmer 23% / Sunak 22%
• Patriotic Starmer 41% / Sunak 39%

Gideon Skinner, Head of Political Research at Ipsos UK, says of the results:

“As we head towards Christmas, there is little sign of a significant honeymoon for Rishi Sunak in these numbers. Its personal ratings have fallen – before the recent residents of No 10, it was rare for Prime Ministers to have been in negative territory so early in their tenure – while Labor remains a substantial lead on electoral intentions. Keir Starmer’s personal results have been mixed and there is not much to decide between him and the Conservative leader on many leadership attributes, but despite this, Britons are more inclined to see Labor as ready to govern than they have been for most of the past 10 years . Much of this is underpinned by voters’ views on the economy and cost of living, which have been high on their agendas for most of 2022. The challenge for the Conservatives in 2023 is that they still have not regained public confidence on these key issues, nor in other important areas such as public services and immigration – and looking ahead, few think the party deserves re-election.”
Source: Ipsos