The Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago CBTT says the local economy is expected to improve in 2023, supported by activity in the energy sector.
In its January Economic Bulletin, the CBTT said natural gas supply will be boosted by key projects in the upstream energy sector such as Shell Trinidad and Tobago’s Colibri, DeNovo’s Zandolie and bpTT’s Cassia Compression.
“In the near term, energy prices are expected to remain elevated, but may soften somewhat. Higher energy revenues will expand the fiscal leeway available for investments and targeted support programs. Increased business activity and continued recovery in consumer demand are expected to bolster the performance of non-energy sectors.”
– Advertising –
The CBTT said the pace of that recovery will depend to a large extent on the level of business confidence and related how much progress is made in improving Trinidad and Tobago’s ease of doing business.
Barring a major resurgence of the COVID-19 pandemic, the resumption of national festivals and additional activities, such as the return of cruise ships, are expected to be components of a more enduring and broader recovery. Meanwhile, domestic inflation is likely to rise further in early 2023 and moderate thereafter in line with global developments,” the central bank noted.
The CBTT said domestic economic activity improved in the second quarter of 2022, reflecting a resurgence in non-energy sector performance.
Data released by the Central Statistical Office (CSO) shows that real gross domestic product (GDP) grew 6.6 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2022. Growth in the non-energy sector was strong at 10.5 percent, while the energy sector declined 2.5 percent.
The unemployment rate was 5.4 percent in the third quarter of 2022. This is similar to the corresponding quarter of 2021 but higher than the 4.5 percent recorded in the second quarter of 2022.
The bank said the additional indicators it is using to monitor overall labor market conditions suggest conditions could be improving. Specifically, data from the Department of Labor shows that 38 people were laid off in the August-November 2022 period, compared to 416 people in the corresponding period in 2021.
In addition, the number of job advertisements published in the print media declined only slightly as demand for labor remained relatively stable over the period.
The CBTT said headline inflation accelerated in the second half of 2022, driven by external and domestic supply-side factors.
“Rising international food prices, supply disruptions and unfavorable local weather conditions helped push headline inflation to 8 percent yoy in November 2022, the highest rate since late 2014, compared to 4.9 percent in June.”
Core inflation rose to 6.6 percent, while food inflation rose to 13.8 percent in November 2022 from 4.1 percent and 7.8 percent respectively in June 2022.
According to CBTT, central government accounts reported improved annual results in the first quarter of fiscal year 2022/23. Treasury Department data showed that from October to December 2022, financial accounts recorded a surplus of US$2 billion (one Tt dollar = 016 US dollar cents), compared to a surplus of TTS$653.9 million in the same year quarter a year earlier.
cmc/
Comments are closed.