Democratic strategists are urging President Joe Biden to halt the poll shift toward Republicans with a stronger message to the economy.
The economy and inflation are the top issues for voters three weeks before the midterm elections as polls show a growing proportion of the public is concerned about rising costs. Forecasts suggest that Democratic leadership is evaporating as their small majorities in Congress are at stake.
Biden had hoped the Supreme Court’s Roe v. Overthrowing Wade this summer would animate voters through the fall. The president addressed the issue just last week, promising to codify abortion laws at the federal level if Democrats increase their majority in the Senate next month. But the enthusiasm that surged after July’s ruling is tempered by a deep-seated economic reality that shows few signs of improvement.
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Now the party risks losing congressional seats, parliaments and states once thought safe as Democrats lose ground on economic issues.
In response, veteran Democratic strategists are sounding the alarm, claiming in a joint public memo that “what we need to do is … make a strong economic case.”
Written by Patrick Gaspard, President of the Center for American Politics; pollsters Stanley Greenberg and Celinda Lake; and liberal strategist and senior White House adviser to President Bill Clinton Mike Lux, the memo acknowledges that “no Democratic candidate should stop talking about abortion.”
“But down the line, we need to make sure our closing message also talks about the cost of living, inflation, and the economy,” the authors argue, writing that “rising costs will beat us if we avoid the problem.”
Annual inflation ending in September was 8.2%, while core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, rose to 6.6%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Both numbers were above projections.
The White House has touted its efforts to bring down costs for consumers, including through the Inflation Reduction Act, a bill that includes a price cap on prescription drugs, among other benefits. Biden has also announced a student debt relief program and efforts to cut gas prices.
But disrupting the White House’s victory lap last month is a declining economic reality the president will find hard to buck.
“There’s no question President Biden and the Democrats are having a hard time making the case for business,” Republican pollster Neil Newhouse of Public Opinion Strategies told the Washington Examiner. “Most Americans expect the economy to deteriorate over the next year, are overwhelmingly focused on the rising cost of living, and a full 57% disapprove of the President’s work on managing the economy.”
And with just two weeks to go, inflation has become voters’ top concern as polls show Republicans are a step ahead of Democrats in the general vote.
According to a recent Monmouth University poll, Republicans have a 6 percentage point lead among registered voters, 50%, compared to 44% for Democrats. Republicans are also more likely than Democrats to say they are “extremely motivated” to vote, 64%-59%.
The poll shows inflation as the top concern for voters, rising 9 percentage points to 46% in October from 37% last month. Among voters with no party preference, 37% rank the issue as their most important concern.
In a recent video, Liberal Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), an independent who sides with Democrats, conceded that “the stress people are living under” is something “we don’t discuss enough.”
“People worry about how they’re going to pay their healthcare bills. … They worry about how they will make ends meet on wages, which in many cases are inadequate,” Sanders said, echoing a populist message that has largely fallen out of favor since Biden’s 2020 victory.
The Democrats, who have won control of the White House and both houses of Congress, have instead relied on their success in passing infrastructure, climate and health legislation, semiconductor manufacturing spending and more.
Less than a third of voters say Biden is paying enough attention to the issues most important to American families, according to the Monmouth poll, conducted Oct. 13-17 with 808 adults and a margin of error of plus or minus 5.2 percentage points gives.
The damage can be seen in key races for Democrats across the country, with Cook Political Report in-house editor David Wasserman noting that many candidates in lean Democratic races are “limbering”.
In Pennsylvania, Democratic Senate nominee John Fetterman is now in a statistical tie with Republican Dr. Mehmet Oz, according to a recent AARP poll conducted by Biden pollster John Anzalone and former Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio.
As Democrats’ forecasts darken, Biden has picked up his message on the economy, adding an economic note to his warnings about the dangers of so-called MAGA Republicans, including claims that the “mega-MAGA trickle-down policy” will “cut the Business.”
In a speech Monday at the headquarters of the Democratic National Committee in Washington, Biden said his administration has created 10 million new jobs, taking employment to a 50-year low and sparking a “made in America” manufacturing boom. Regarding inflation, the President blamed “Putin’s war in Ukraine and the global pandemic” for the rising cost of living.
It’s not clear if the President’s message will resonate.
According to Greenberg, pollster for former President Bill Clinton before the 1994 collapse of the Democrats, voters don’t like hearing about the president’s victories. He also hinted that Republicans would win the business news war.
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“[Republicans are] meets us on crime and border and inflation. … There’s tremendous power in that,” Greenberg told West Wing Playbook. “And we have the smug message of how much we’ve accomplished, rather than focusing on what’s happening to people.”
Democrats face great odds as they try to persuade voters in the final days of the election.
“Given how Americans feel about the economy right now, it’s a huge boost for Democrats to argue that things are going in the right direction,” Newhouse said.
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