A portrayal of The Line, part of the Neom project, and its mastermind, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Neom/Getty Images
- Vision 2030 is Saudi Arabia’s grand plan to transform its economy and reduce its dependence on oil.
- The plan also aims to improve the lives of its citizens and assert its place on the world stage.
- At the heart of Vision 2030 is Neom, which includes a $1 trillion megacity called The Line.
It was the discovery of oil beneath the Dhahran Plains in Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province in the 1930s that transformed the Middle Eastern peninsula from a humble Bedouin country steeped in religious lore into a kingdom with the power to take the world with it to turn black gold.
This performance is no longer guaranteed.
Nearly a century after the country stumbled upon its oil wealth, changing times have forced the House of Saud to confront the critical turning point it has reached – one that requires another radical transformation.
A global climate crisis turning the world away from oil, a growing body of young hopefuls desperate for opportunity, and the rising star of a king-in-waiting ready to build a nation in his image. These factors have combined in a unique mission to make the kingdom prosper.
It’s called Vision 2030. By the end of the decade, Saudi Arabia aims to complete the ambitious, three-pronged feat of creating an economy no longer dependent on oil, improving the lives of its nearly 40 million people, and strengthening its place at the top claim the global stage.
“This isn’t just about diversifying the economy – it’s about transforming society to create an agile economy that can respond to the challenges of the modern world,” said Professor Simon Mabon, senior research fellow at Foreign Policy Center in London. said.
But time is of the essence: seven years after announcing Vision 2030, Saudi Arabia is halfway on its timeline, with just seven years to go to the finish line. It means the kingdom is getting more serious than ever – or in danger of being left in the dust.
In the Vision 2030 master plan
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman announces the construction of a zero-carbon city called “The Line” at NEOM in north-western Saudi Arabia on January 10, 2021. Bandar Algaloud/Courtesy Saudi Royal Court/Handout via REUTERS
The brainchild of 37-year-old Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the country’s master plan, drawn up with the help of McKinsey, consists of several moving parts, with the “gigaprojects” standing out.
In particular, his crown jewel project, Neom, represents the synthesis of the moving parts of Vision 2030. In the northwest corner of the country, Neom’s centerpiece is said to be a $1 trillion megacity called The Line.
Early depictions show a giant, mirror-like structure in the desert said to be about 650 feet wide and 100 miles long. Saudi Arabia says the state-of-the-art car-free city will be powered by 100% renewable energy and provide services to 9 million people within a five-minute walk.
In other words, The Line symbolizes everything Saudi Arabia wants to achieve with Vision 2030: committing to a post-oil future, building livable spaces with economic opportunity, and setting the standard of a futuristic city for others to embrace be able to orientate around the world .
There are more than 20 other Vision 2030 projects, such as the Red Sea holiday destination and Qiddiya, an arts and entertainment capital – designed as ways to build a Saudi Arabia that provides jobs for all of its citizens.
Gerald Feierstein, the US ambassador to Yemen under President Barack Obama and a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, told Insider that engaging the private sector locally and internationally has become crucial in Saudi Arabia’s job creation efforts.
“The old system, where all Saudis entering the labor market were given primarily public sector jobs, was no longer viable as the population had grown beyond the public sector’s capacity,” Feierstein said.
However, much of this is funded by the Public Investment Fund, Saudi Arabia’s powerful sovereign wealth fund, which manages approximately $700 billion worth of assets.
In recent years, the fund has been on a global buying spree, placing bets on technology through its $45 billion backing of SoftBank’s Vision Fund, Newcastle United football club, private equity, Tesla rivals Lucid and Golf.
Saudi Arabia took over Newcastle United FC in 2021. Richard Callis/MB Media/Getty Images
By becoming the main investor in several high-profile international names, the fund — led by Crown Prince Mohammed and his governor Yasir Othman al-Rumayyan — hopes to generate income from bets that drive the West, while motivating executives to invest and do business there to open up the kingdom.
Saudi Arabia is bolstered by its status as the world’s largest oil exporter — a position bolstered as Russia’s war with Ukraine disrupts Russian crude oil exports. Last year, state-owned oil company Saudi Aramco made a staggering $161 billion in net profit.
But Saudi kings are well aware that the country’s non-oil revenues will become increasingly important in the coming years as the climate crisis pushes nations towards clean energy.
It explains why the company invests so heavily locally and internationally and why it aims to increase the contribution of non-oil exports to non-oil GDP from 16% to 50% as part of its Vision 2030 goals .
Success is anything but certain
There are conflicting signals about whether Saudi Arabia’s efforts will pay off.
It became the fastest-growing G20 economy last year, according to the International Monetary Fund, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.8%. The target of 30% female labor force participation set in Vision 2030 has already been exceeded.
Mabon of the Foreign Policy Center said the majority of the population favored the crown prince. The people support the leader because of the promises contained in his grand plan.
“You only have to talk to young Saudis to get a sense of how popular he is,” Mabon said.
However, success is far from guaranteed. Feierstein said, “We must be clear that it is the young urban Saudis in places like Riyadh, Jeddah and Dhahran” who are excited about Vision 2030. He added, “When you talk about the backcountry, they’re not necessarily that excited.”
Mabon agreed, adding that another point of tension concerns Crown Prince Mohammed’s ability to “maintain the nation’s legitimacy within Islam while embarking on a project that draws on the characteristics of Western modernity.” Traditionally, Saudi Arabia has been deeply conservative.
For Farea Al-Muslimi, a Chatham House research fellow, the stakes in society are even higher. Despite reports of nomadic tribes being expelled to make way for Neom, the Saudis have continued to show goodwill to the monarchy because of its long-term promises, he said.
Failure to keep these promises, given the sacrifices made, could lead to problems.
“People are willing to forgive and forget – when it pays off,” Al-Muslimi said. “If not, they won’t have it easy. It can backfire.”
On a broader scale, experts told Insider, the accelerating pace of the Vision 2030 mission threatens to lead to deeper tensions between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which are vying for the region’s economic leadership with financial payoffs dragging on for many years to come could.
“With all these mega projects, there is not a single guarantee that they will work,” Al-Muslimi said. “It’s a big risk.”
In July, the Public Investment Fund reported a loss of $11 billion for the past year as global markets were in turmoil, Bloomberg reported.
A blueprint for The Line, part of the planned Saudi desert megacity in Neom. neoma
A key factor that could determine the success of this project is Saudi Arabia’s changing attractiveness to the West. Organizations such as Amnesty International have raised concerns about the country’s human rights record; It must be aware of this when promoting Western business and investment.
Still, the sheer scale and glamor of the 2030 Vision for Saudi Arabia could be compelling to observers abroad and give it a chance for a bright future.
The Saudis will pin their hopes on the delivery of Crown Prince Mohammed. Luckily for them, Mabon said, “there is a lot of confidence that it can be done.”
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