Russians are more optimistic than pessimistic about the prospects for their local economy, despite a year of heavy sanctions linked to the country’s invasion of Ukraine, a new poll shows.
A Gallup poll released on Friday found that 44 percent of Russians polled between August and November said their local economy was improving, while 29 percent said it was getting worse.
The United States and many of its Western allies who support Ukraine have imposed sanctions on Russia over its all-out invasion, which began Friday a year ago. In response, numerous large companies withdrew their activities from Russia.
Gallup noted that this led the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development to predict that Russia’s gross domestic product would fall between 2 and 4 percent in 2022. But local economic perception among Russians improved by 4 points in the survey compared to 2021.
Gallup postulated in his analysis that the optimistic outlook has two possible explanations. The first is that sanctions are not hitting the Russian economy as badly as the West had hoped, while the second is that Russians are experiencing a “rally-for-the-flag” effect, which is positive at times of national crisis result in poll numbers.
Gallup said countries like China and India have increased their purchases of Russian oil and are paying in local currencies, while much of Europe still relies on Russian natural gas.
It has been reported that for the first time since records began, the majority of people in all regions of Russia are satisfied with their standard of living.
Pollsters also found that two-thirds of respondents approve of their country’s leadership, while just 21 percent disapprove.
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Gallup Editor-in-Chief Mohamed Younis said in an interview on Saturday that CNN’s Michael Smerconish said Russia had paid a “huge price” in lives lost during the war, but the economic “pain” doesn’t seem to be taking hold of the Russian population, at least until now.
Gallup noted that support for Russian leadership steadily declined in the years following Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea and intervention in the Syrian civil war, so if a similar trend materializes now, the intended effect of economic sanctions may become clearer.
The survey was conducted from August 13 to November 2, 2022 among 2,000 Russians aged 15 and over. The error rate was 2.6 points.
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