Last week’s economic data release confirmed a slowdown and this time the market reacted negatively to the bad news.
Slowdown is real: Several jobs data came in weaker than expected, with the Labor Department’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey delivering particularly disappointing results. In February, job vacancies fell below the 10 million mark for the first time in about two years.
The March nonfarm payrolls report released on Friday showed the economy added 236,000 jobs and, more importantly, January and February figures were revised down by a net 17,000 jobs. The annual rate of average hourly earnings fell to 4.2% from 4.6%, confirming the easing of inflationary pressures.
Business surveys showed weak activity, with the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index falling to a three-year low.
Now here’s a look at the key economic data scheduled for the coming week:
Duo of Pricing: Recent weak economic data and the banking crisis are likely to remain in the minds of Fed officials as they discuss Fed interest rates at the May 2-3 meeting.
What could be the key stimulus for the central bank to consider a possible pause could be evidence of a sustained easing in inflationary pressures.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics is due to release its March CPI data Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. EDT. Expectations for the report’s key metrics are as follows:
CPI Consensus vs February numbers
| Change | CPI | Core CPI |
| Mother | 0.3% (0.4%) | 0.4% (0.5%) |
| Me and | 5.2% (6.0%) | 5.6% (5.5%) |
BLS will release the Producer or Wholesale Price Inflation Report Thursday at 8:30 am EDT.
PPI Consensus vs February Numbers
| Change | PPI | Core PPI |
| Mother | 0.1% (-0.1%) | 0.2% (0%) |
| Me and | 3.1% (4.6%) | 3.3% (4.4%) |
The Cleveland Fed is scheduled to release its March regional consumer price index Wednesday at 11 a.m. EDT.
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FOMC Minutes and Fed Speeches:
The Fed will release the minutes of the March 21-22 Federal Open Market Committee meeting at 2 p.m. EDT on Wednesday. Despite the eruption of the banking crisis, the central bank’s monetary policy arm decided to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to between 4.75% and 5% at the meeting.
The post-meeting policy statement released after the meeting showed a change that offered scope for a possible pause, but the Fed chair Jerome Powell reiterated the central bank’s determination to fight inflation at the press conference after the meeting.
The minutes could include more detail on the considerations that went into the decision and Committee members’ views on inflation and the interest rate outlook.
More clarity on the interest rate outlook may come from a series of Fed speeches scheduled for this week.
- President of the New York Fed john williams, a FOMC member: Monday (4:15 p.m. EDT)
- Philadelphia Fed President patrick harker, also a FOMC member: Tuesday (4 p.m. EDT)
- Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, one FOMC member: Tuesday (7:30 p.m. EDT)
- fed governor Christopher Waller: Friday (8:45 a.m. EDT)
Further key data:
The Department of Commerce will release them Retail Sales for March at 8:30 p.m. EDT on Friday. The consensus estimate is for retail sales to fall 0.4% monthly, the same pace as February.
The Fed will publish theirs Industrial production report for March at 9:15 am EDT On a monthly basis, industrial production could have risen 0.2%, slower than February’s 0.3% growth. Economists expect manufacturing output to fall 0.1% monthly.
Those of the University of Michigan preliminary consumer sentiment report for April scheduled for release Friday at 10 a.m. EDT. Economists on average expect the leading index of consumer sentiment to rise to 62.7 in April from 62 in March. Investors can also focus on the inflation expectations from the report.
those of the Department of Labor weekly unemployment report Due Thursday at 8:30 a.m. EDT is expected to show 205,000 people filing for the first time for unemployment benefits in the week ended April 8, up from 228,000 the previous week.
Treasure Auctions:
- Auction for 3-month and 6-month bills: Monday (11:30 a.m. EDT)
- Three-Year Bond Auction: Tuesday (1:00 p.m. EDT)
- Auction 10-Year Notes: Wednesday (1:00 p.m. EDT)
- Four-week and eight-week rotating auctions: Thursday (11:30 a.m. EDT)
- 30-year bond auction: Thursday (1 p.m. EDT)
Continue reading: Bob Elliott says bond market assumptions on growth, inflation and monetary policy are ‘painfully wrong’
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