Revised data paints a more positive picture of the RI economy, says URI economist – Rhody Today

University of Rhode Island economist Leonard Lardaro is the creator and author of the Current Conditions Index. (actual stock)

WHAT: Although early data for 2023 made it seem like Rhode Island's economy was in recession, revised labor market data paints a rosier picture, says University of Rhode Island economist Leonard Lardaro. Although cyclical momentum was mediocre and the Current Conditions Index reading was barely in expansion territory at 58 in seven out of 12 months, certain indicators continue to show strength into 2024. With a CCI score of 58 as of January 2024, Lardaro points out that retail sales, private services, manufacturing employment, public sector employment, U.S. consumer sentiment, total production hours, manufacturing wages, and employment participation all showed good results. The Current Conditions Index creator also pointed out some vulnerabilities, including single-use permits, benefit exhaustion, new applications for unemployment insurance and employment agencies. Despite these vulnerabilities, Lardaro says Rhode Island's economy is doing better overall than originally estimated, concluding that the state has not experienced an actual or “statistical” recession. “Stuck in first gear is better than going into reverse,” he said.

HOW: Use the included information, including summaries and charts created by Lardaro, for news reporting. He is available for broadcast and print interviews. Lardaro will be blogging about the new labor market data in the coming weeks. Additional information and historical data available online: http://www.llardaro.com/current.htm.

WHEN: March 12, 2024

FOR INFORMATION: Leonard Lardaro, Office, 401-874-4128, Home, 401-783-9563.
Dawn Bergantino, URI Communications and Marketing Department, 401-874-4147.

BACKGROUND: The Current Conditions Index, created by Lardaro, measures the strength of Rhode Island's current economic climate by tracking the behavior of 12 indicators.