First, I would like to point out that I am not an economist and only a fool would consider my predictions about the economy as good financial advice. However, I have a digital subscription to the Asheville Citizen Times, which also includes USA Today.
I also subscribe digitally to the Charlotte Observer, the New York Times and the Washington Post. I often watch Fox News to keep up with right-wing commentary. Fortunately, readers of this newspaper will have everything they need for comprehensive coverage of important news events.
That's why I'm surprised that most journalists predicted a good 2024 for the USA. To this surprise one could add the optimism of renowned economists. The University of Michigan's Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics concluded: “We expect the U.S. economy to avoid recession over the next two years.” They expect real GDP growth of 1.7% in the year 2024, compared to an estimated 2.4% for 2023.
How can this happen when every major news outlet is reporting a serious deterioration in conditions around the world? You will note that all of the following reports of news events published by other newspapers in 2023 were also included in the single Jan. 4 issue of the Asheville Citizen Times. There were too many to list here, but these few seemed to be the most instructive.
Headline: “Why were so many economists so wrong about the recession?” Last year, 85% of economists in a survey predicted a recession this year. It cited that the Federal Reserve was concerned that raising the interest rate would cost millions of jobs, citing warnings of a struggling economy from experts including Janet Yellen, Christina Roper, Lawrence Summers and Paul Krugman.
Echoing a similar theme, “Markets and economy surprised investors.” Surprisingly, the economy was good through 2023, although investors worried that a thriving economy could prompt the Fed to keep interest rates higher for longer.
Headline: “Israel prepares for retaliation after Hamas leader’s death; Hamas hostages killed in rescue attempt.” On October 7, Hamas soldiers killed 1,200 Israelis and took more than 240 hostages. Benjamin Netanyahu promised to track down and kill all their leaders. Nations around the world are at war or preparing for war.
Due to space limitations, the following articles are headlines and very brief descriptions only.
“US Debt Reaches Record $34 Trillion; Congress is preparing for another funding fight.” A divided government and a Republican House of Representatives could lead to a government shutdown with serious damage this year.
“Republicans want to impeach Maine's secretary of state.” Fears that the Republican House of Representatives will move from solving the country's problems to controversial investigations against Democrats are coming true.
Again: “House GOP sets Mayorka's impeachment hearing.” Political theater replaces solving major national problems.
“Census Bureau: The world was much more crowded in 23.” The world's population has grown to 8 billion, an increase of 75 million this year. As climate change destroys untold millions of acres of land suitable for creating jobs, building homes, and growing food, today's Republican leaders continue to deny that this is a problem.
“New Jersey Senator Menendez faces new allegations in bribery case.” Although Menendez, a Democrat, was chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, more than half of the Senate Democratic caucus called for him to resign following his indictment.
“The price of insulin is capped at $35.” Against strong opposition from Republicans, President Biden managed to get the pharmaceutical industry to lower its prices. Federal and state laws, Medicare and Medicaid led to price reductions.
“The speaker treads a hard line; Aid to Ukraine remains on the line.” US House Speaker Mike Johnson led 60 Republicans in a political rally to reinforce their threat not to support President Biden's war funding for Ukraine. Representative Johnson expressed serious doubts that he would support a bipartisan compromise.
Rep. Johnson told the Associated Press he would strictly adhere to the guidelines of the so-called Israel Security Supplemental Appropriations Act. This is the first time the House has attached a poison pill to an emergency bill that requires immediate funding. This included a significant reduction in IRS funding. The Congressional Budget Office said the bill would cost American taxpayers $12.5 billion over the next decade because the IRS would not have enough staff and resources to audit the tax liabilities of America's top 1%.
You don't have to be an economist to tell from published specialist journalists which party's economic policies are best for our country: Republicans controlled by a divided MAGA sect – or united traditional Democrats.
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Chuck Kelly of Fairview is the author of “Why Capitalism Thrives—and How It Destroys Itself.” He can be reached at [email protected].
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