A report detailing the need for available and affordable housing in Lebanon County and possible solutions was presented to county commissioners on Wednesday.
In highlighting the needs outlined in the report (PDF), Patrick Bowen, president of Ohio-based Bowen National Research, also showed how these two issues are negatively impacting the county’s economy.
Showing numerous slides filled with statistical data, Bowen noted that while the number of households in Lebanon County has increased over the past decade, the percentage of homes available for rent or purchase has declined.
Read more: New study highlights nationwide housing problems and offers possible solutions
“Lebanon County grew very quickly compared to the state from 2010 to 2022,” Bowen said. “Forecasts for 2022 to 2027, one percent growth, you’re growing, Pennsylvania, that’s a big deal because there are a lot of places around Pennsylvania that aren’t seeing a lot of growth or are not expected to have a lot of growth will be recorded.”
Between 2010 and 2022, the number of households in Lebanon County grew by 4,164, or 8 percent. That number is expected to increase by 580 households, or 1 percent, nationwide by 2027. Bowen said that number is five times the projected growth rate (0.02 percent) for the rest of the state.
“Every part of the county will grow – some a little faster than others, but the point is that every (school) district or every part of the county will increase the number of households,” Bowen added.
The proportion of affordable residential units for sale, however, has shrunk to a meager 0.3 percent.
“Of the 131 apartments that are available statewide, (and) when I compare that to our entire condo inventory, that number is three-tenths of a percent,” Bowen said. “What does that mean? Normally in a healthy market you want to have about two to three percent vacancy. You have three tenths of a percent.”
Bowen said these issues will negatively impact the county’s economy.
“They are well below the level you should have for a healthy market. This is also terrible news for economic development and growth,” he added.
But that’s not the only bad economic news.
Bowen noted that 24,245 employees commute from other locations to Lebanon County daily, which is nearly half the workforce in all of Lebanon County.
“So the 24,000 people coming in is a lot of people who may be residents of your county,” Bowen said. “That’s really relevant because when we do surveys… and say, ‘Look.’ They come to this county to work. Would you live here if housing were available and affordable to you? On average, about 40 percent of people say they would live in the county if housing were available and affordable.”
Bowen added that this has an impact on the county’s economic vitality.
“These are people who probably spend money on lunch, and they’re out of here,” Bowen said. “They don’t spend the money they made in your county, they don’t spend it in your county. They return home, wherever they live. So you have an opportunity to get hold of some of these people.”
About half of those commuters, Bowen said, are between the ages of 30 and 54 and earn over $40,000 a year.
“So these are good paying jobs, but these people are not staying in our area,” Bowen said. “But if they wanted to live here, they don’t have much choice.”
Bowen said 6,500 Lebanon County commuters travel at least 50 miles to their jobs each day, which is unsustainable in the long run.
“With current gas prices, this is a big challenge for workers,” Bowen said. “As a community, you run the risk of losing them.” For these workers, this means they cannot bear these costs. For someone making less than $40,000 a year, that’s not something they can sustain over a long period of time.”
Bowen said occupancy for all rental units in Lebanon is around 99.6 percent. He added that the number was one of the highest numbers he had seen out of the approximately 30 communities his company has surveyed in recent years.
“What kind of healthy market do you want?” Bowen asked. “You want that number to be around 94 to 96 percent. So they want vacancies. They want openings when people move, their lives change, they get married, have children, their jobs change or their wages increase. The ability to attract all incoming commuters. Where will they move to? This is not very good news for the community.”
Bowen repeatedly emphasized that Lebanon County has issues with housing availability and affordability across all housing segments.
“Everything is full or almost full – it’s a nationwide problem,” Bowen said. “Both in terms of geography and affordability. It’s not like any market has been spared from this problem. It’s not like any market segment escaped.”
Bowen said more than 5,000 people are waiting for federally subsidized housing units and at least another 1,600 are waiting for tax credit units.
“There is a lot of pent-up demand for rental housing, no matter what type of rental housing it is,” Bowen added. “So high demand, waiting list. The positive thing about this is that there is a demand for it in the development community. If I’m a developer, I like coming here because I know there’s a demand.”
Bowen advised commissioners to educate developers and investors about these types of housing options.
Rent affordability is an issue for many potential renters. One-bedroom, one-bathroom rental units cost an average of $1,290 per month and two-bedroom, one-bathroom rental units cost $1,330 per month.
“The point is, there’s a large portion of people in your county who can’t even afford rent,” Bowen said. “Even if you’re lucky enough to…find one, most people can’t afford that kind of rent.”
Bowen provided a number of possible solutions in one of his slides (see photo below).
He advised commissioners to set realistic/achievable short-term housing goals, outline long-term goals and monitor progress. He also urged them to build capacity and find a “housing champion” to carry the torch for housing in Lebanon County.
“For me, this is where it all starts – someone has to be the person or the group that drives this. Whether it’s a government-created task force, whether it’s a stakeholder-driven housing commission, whether you hire someone…bring someone in as a housing authority to lead that effort…” Bowen said.
Before Bowen’s presentation began, Nicole Maurer Gray, executive director of the Community Health Council of Lebanon County, said the study will be integrated into the county’s comprehensive plan, which is scheduled to be updated in 2024.
Read more: Lebanon County is beginning the process of developing a new 10-year comprehensive plan
“We hope we find a lot of good information and have all the data we and the county need to move forward with the comprehensive plan. I think this will be great for this project and I’m very excited,” Gray said.
Community members can view Bowen’s full presentation on housing needs and ask questions about the report at a public meeting today at 1 p.m. at the Lebanon Valley Chamber of Commerce. Pre-registration is not required, but encouraged.
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