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Philadelphia Fed cuts GDP estimate for the year; Economic outlook weakens

May 13, 2022

According to the Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s Survey of Professional Forecasters, the US economy looks weaker than in February.

US GDP growth is expected to rise 2.3% this quarter, up from 4.2% in the previous forecast.

The forecasters expect GDP growth of 2.5% for the full year 2022, 2.3% in 2023 and 2.0% in 2024. However, these annual estimates are lower than the previous estimates.

Today’s report has revised down the estimated unemployment rates. Forecasters expect the rate to be 3.6% for the quarter, compared to 3.7% estimated in the previous quarter.

In addition, forecasters have raised their estimates for job growth for the current quarter and full year 2022. Monthly jobs are expected to rise by 381,300 this quarter versus the previous forecast of 357,000. Forecasts for the annual average non-farm payrolls level point to monthly job growth of 479,700 in 2022.

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