Pennsylvania Midterm Election Races Shaped by Economy, Abortion – CBS News Battleground Tracker Poll

John Fetterman, Lt. gov. of Pennsylvania, Mehmet Oz leads by five points among Pennsylvania’s likely voters in a Senate race that still appears to be fluid, with Republicans less than enthusiastic about the candidates they nominate and Democrats battling economic headwinds. It’s a race that has voters thinking about the national implications, even as the candidates’ personal qualities have come to the fore.

A gap in authenticity

Most voters describe Fetterman as what he truly believes more than they describe Oz. A large majority describe Oz as only what he thinks voters want to hear.

Combine that with criticism of Oz’s stay in Pennsylvania and its impact: Two-thirds don’t think he’s lived in the state long enough to understand his troubles. Oz follows Fetterman in having “the right experience” as well as in personal likeability scores. In fact, most Oz supporters say they support him primarily to oppose Fetterman, not because they like Oz.

And despite the fact that Oz has only recently broken into politics, Fetterman is seen more as a “man of change.”

Meanwhile, the Oz campaign’s efforts to raise health issues about Fetterman don’t seem as effective by comparison: Most voters believe Fetterman is well enough to serve. (Even nearly four out of 10 Republicans say he is.)

The Primary Process: A Buyer’s Remorse for the GOP?

Democrats say they are more satisfied with Fetterman’s nomination than Republicans say with Oz’s nomination. (The same is true for the gubernatorial nomination.)

It’s the non-MAGA Republicans (those who don’t consider themselves part of the movement) who are more disappointed in Oz as their candidate than the MAGA Republicans.

Those same non-MAGA Republicans don’t view their Senate vote as over former President Donald Trump as much as MAGA Republicans do. So maybe Trump’s endorsement of Oz doesn’t carry that much weight. And indeed, non-MAGA Republicans don’t support Oz quite as much as their MAGA peers.

Fetterman’s supporters are more enthusiastic about him than Oz’s supporters are about Oz.

Topics in focus: The economy

The economy and inflation remain high on the list of overall issues, and that helps Oz — like Republicans across the country, he fares better with voters who rank these issues highly. That’s partly because they’re the party without power, and because Republicans prioritize the economy.

Eight in 10 Pennsylvania voters say higher prices have been difficult or difficult for them. Low-income Pennsylvanians are particularly hard hit.

In fact, Oz fares slightly better among independents when it comes to those who describe price increases as a difficulty or harshness.

cancellation

The abortion problem helps Fetterman. For its democratic base, abortion is more important than the economy. Fetterman leads among those who say it’s very important, both men and women.

Most Democrats say the fall of Roe v. Wade has led them to vote earlier this year. (Most Republicans don’t care about the issue.)

A national election in a state

So much for “politics is local”. At three to one, Pennsylvanians tell us they care more about national issues and the direction of the country than local issues when it comes to Senate elections. Perhaps fitting, since all eyes of the nation are on the state.

So national figures play a big role – including Trump

Pennsylvania Democrats say their Senate vote is against both Trump and President Biden.

Most Republicans in Pennsylvania are motivated to oppose Mr. Biden. But a sizeable four in 10 Republicans say their Senate vote should also support Trump.

Away from Republicans, however, Trump falls negatively across the race: For all voters for whom Trump is a factor – either through support or opposition – they vote, on balance, to prefer Fetterman to Oz.

Democracy and… less desire for election denial

Mr. Biden won Pennsylvania in 2020. A stance by some Republicans in their 2022 primary that Mr. Biden did not legitimately win the presidency is not a stance most voters expect from their elected officials.

Just a third of the state’s Republicans — and just under a fifth of its constituents — want elected state officials to claim Mr. Biden didn’t win the 2020 election.

A bipartisan majority of eight out of 10 voters would like the next secretary of state – who would be appointed by the governor – to enact voting rules that are neutral to, and favor neither, either party.

All of this might suggest that even for Republicans who are now out of the primary, these attitudes are not the same litmus tests.

debating the debate

Yes, a debate is at least somewhat important to voters, if not very important to most. Given the attitudes emerging from the campaigns, it may come as no surprise that Republicans think it matters more than Democrats.

For Republicans, who tend to think Fetterman isn’t in good enough health, a debate — perhaps from a strategic perspective — has taken on added significance.

Governor’s race

Of the four major party candidates running for Senate and Governor, Democrat Josh Shapiro has the highest personal positive ratings of all. Combined with strong women’s support, that puts him 11 points clear of Republican Doug Mastriano.

Shapiro has a huge lead among voters who say abortion should be legal in Pennsylvania — which most voters do. That includes support from about a third of Republicans who think it should be legal. More than eight in 10 voters now believe Mastriano would restrict access in Pennsylvania.

Also, some “buyer’s remorse” could linger from the Mastriano primary among Republicans, as four out of 10 wish their party had nominated a different candidate.

Then what is local? Still plenty.

Crime, gun violence, and drug and opioid addiction are considered by most to be problems in their Pennsylvania area.

Republicans add that illegal immigration is a problem in their territory; Such is the case for Republicans across the state. Above all, the Democrats perceive racism, access to health care and the school conditions as problems in their area.

The majority of Republicans and Democrats name the cost of housing as a problem.

This CBS News/YouGov Battleground Tracker poll was conducted with a nationally representative sample of 1,194 Pennsylvania voters who were polled between September 6 and September 12, 2022. The sample was weighted by sex, age, race, education, and geographic region based on the US Census Current Population Survey as well as up to the 2020 presidential election. The margin of error is ±3.8 points.

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