Comment on this story
comment
Many in the mainstream media on Thursday greeted with surprise – even shock – news of robust economic growth of 2.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2022. And on Friday there was more good economic news: Inflation rates fell in December compared to November, the sixth straight month of declines.
These numbers have often been cited as contrary to expectations of a recession or despite economic headwinds. The Wall Street Journal said that although growth was solid last quarter, the US economy “started this year with less momentum as rising interest rates and still-high inflation weighed on demand.” Almost hilariously, the Associated Press asked, “How do we know if the US economy is in recession?”
The Better Question: When will the mainstream media recognize good business news for what it is?
President Biden took a different view in a speech in Virginia on Thursday. “I’m not sure the news could have been better – economic growth has increased more than experts expected, 2.9 percent,” he said. “I don’t think it’s unfair to say that this is all evidence of that [the] Biden’s economic plan is actually working.”
consequences Jennifer Rubin’s opinionconsequences
Late last year, I spoke at length with Jared Bernstein, a member of the President’s Council of Economic Advisers. The “streams of data,” he told me, simply didn’t support the bleak prospects that many were promoting. Any attempt to explain a sunnier view was dismissed as a lunacy. It seems he had, at least in the short term, a better grasp of the economy than the legions of government critics.
That doesn’t mean the probability of a recession is zero. Inflation is still high compared to a year ago, so the US Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates. A downturn is still possible. A potential default triggered by MAGA House’s brinkmanship could throw the economy off balance. But the certainty with which the mainstream media has maintained for months that the United States is on the brink of recession seems false — and strangely familiar.
Much like the red wave midterm elections that never happened, the media never seems to back down from their dire predictions for the Biden administration. And their widespread refusal to give credit to the Fed and the government, even as good news broke, was notable.
Aside from the media’s penchant for highlighting negative news (due to the assumption that good news doesn’t draw as many looks), there are several factors that might explain reporters’ willingness to believe Democrats’ predictions.
First, the media remains scared to death of accusations of liberal bias. Constant course correction in the name of illusory “balance” leads to parroting of right-wing talking points.
Second, the media are often prisoners of historical trends. The first half always goes to the party without power; the President’s poor ratings always mean bad news for his party; and a rate hike is always followed by a recession. The problem is that “always” is rarely – if ever – correct. (For example, the Republicans under George W. Bush did well in their first midterm elections.)
Also, things are different now. The pandemic and resulting recession is unlike any other economic event before it. And the cloud that Donald Trump has hung over his party has weighed on Republicans in a unique way in three straight elections. Sometimes the past is not a guide to the future.
Third, as with its premature obituary of Biden’s first term, the Beltway media is treating the midterms and the economy as permanent opposition to the White House. Certain that they are hearing a spin from the White House, the media representatives consistently refuse to give credit to the incumbent President and see themselves as professional cynics. When the White House says it’s sunny outside, it must mean it’s pouring.
After all, groupthink is a constant theme in the mainstream media. Reporters and editors roam from one outlet to another; nobody wants to be too far from consensus; and too many political reporters see everything through the prism of partisan horseracing politics.
All of these factors contribute to confirmation bias. The media starts with an assumption, filters out conflicting data and doubles down on facts that appear “right”.
The solution? More diversity in the editorial offices. More expertise in areas other than politics. Less cringing in the face of impending attacks from the right and less unreserved negativity. These changes would do the media and the country good.
Popular Opinion Articles
Check out 3 more stories
Comments are closed.