How Nevada voters feel about the economy and their personal finances shows how vulnerable President Joe Biden is in his expected rematch with former President Donald Trump.
A new online swing-state poll from media outlet Bloomberg and research firm Morning Consult shows that Trump would win by three percentage points in a straight election in Nevada held today – within the poll's margin of error.
With the election still 11 months away, a lot is likely to change – and one thing that could shatter all predictions is the fact that one in seven Nevada voters say they are “very likely” to consider it as an alternative for to vote for a candidate from a new party to those of the Democrats and Republicans.
As the poll expanded the choices available to voters — independents Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornell West and Green Party Rep. Jill Stein — the gap between Trump and Biden in Nevada widened to 5 percentage points.
The Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll, released Thursday, examines opinions on a variety of current issues, including abortion, guns, senior services, Ukraine-Russia, Israel-Hamas and immigration.
Financial concerns are peppered throughout the results, and Trump is expected to be better able to address them than Biden, even as Biden seeks to promote “Bidenomics” – a campaign focused on middle class growth – and better U.S. economic performance than to promote many Western allies.
For example, voters in Nevada trust Trump to be better for “the economy” by 18 percentage points – 52% to 34%.
In further analysis of the people who would vote for Trump in a neck-and-neck race with Biden, zero thought Biden would handle the economy better – 97% of them think Trump would be the best, and 3% believe that neither Biden nor Trump would be better for the economy.
Would-be Biden voters are far less confident that he would do better. Of Nevadans who would vote for Biden today, only 74% believe he would do better than Trump on the economy.
Looking at their personal financial situations, most Nevada voters — 46% to 30% — believe they were better off under the Trump administration than they were under Biden.
To show what he's doing on the economic front, Biden gave a speech in Las Vegas on Dec. 8 to celebrate $3 billion in federal funding going toward a high-speed commuter rail project, Nevada's largest connects the city with the Los Angeles area.
“Harry Reid, I told you 35 years ago that I would take that fool out,” Biden said of the late Nevada senator. “We can do it.”
Donald Trump will make his case ahead of Nevada's Republican presidential primary at a rally in Reno on Sunday.
The survey was conducted from November 30 to December 5 among a sample of 451 registered voters using online interviews. Data was weighted to approximate a target sample of registered voters based on gender, age, race/ethnicity, marital status, home ownership, and 2020 presidential election. The margin of error for the overall survey was plus or minus 4 points.
More:According to a New York Times poll, Trump leads Biden by 12 percentage points in Washoe County
Mark Robison is the state politics reporter for the Reno Gazette Journal, with occasional forays into other topics. Email comments to [email protected] or comment on Mark's Greater Reno Facebook page.
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