EXCLUSIVE:
JD Vance ran to victory in the Ohio Senate Republican primary earlier this month, but now he faces more skeptical voters weighing his views on abortion, jobs and the economy against a popular and well-funded Democratic opponent.
Democratic MP Tim Ryan is undeniably the underdog in November’s election. Pollsters see the Senate seat as less competitive for Democrats this year, thanks to an electorate that tipped decisively toward Republicans in the last election.
Former President Donald Trump, who backed Mr. Vance, won the state in 2020 by an eight-point margin. In the May 3 primary, twice as many Republican voters turned out as Democrats, indicating a gap in enthusiasm ahead of November’s election, which will benefit Mr. Vance.
However, hoping to win over the state’s large base of independent voters, Mr. Ryan and the Democrats are targeting suburban women by portraying Mr. Vance, a venture capitalist and best-selling author, as an extreme anti-abortion conservative with weak ties and low loyalty to Buckeye State.
“JD Vance left Ohio for San Francisco to make millions and invest in companies that will benefit from globalization and free trade,” said Mr. Ryan, 48, who has represented Ohio’s Youngstown area in Congress for nearly two decades, recently in a campaign ad. “He became a famous CNN analyst and a big hit at cocktail parties in Washington. Now Vance says he feels out of place in Ohio and wants to represent you in the Senate. What a joke.”
Mr. Vance, 37, told the Washington Times he will confront Mr. Ryan’s voting behavior, which he says aligns with the increasingly left-wing agenda of House Democrats. He will also remind voters of Mr Ryan’s support for the Biden administration’s agenda, which many blame for drastically higher prices at gas stations and grocery stores.
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“He voted 100% for Joe Biden with all his energy and inflation policies,” said Mr. Vance, whose best-selling book, Hillbilly Elegy, was made into a film. “Rhetorically, he’s trying to run into the middle. He’s trying to pretend to be someone he’s not. But his record speaks for itself.”
The Supreme Court ruling on abortion is another major issue in the Senate race.
A leaked draft of the Supreme Court’s majority opinion called for the Supreme Court’s 1973 ruling legalizing abortion to be overturned and the decision returned to the states.
In Ohio, abortion is legal up to the 20th week of pregnancy. The procedure is allowed after 20 weeks or later only if the life or health of the mother is at risk. Ohio passed a “heartbeat” abortion law that banned the procedure after about six weeks, but the law was blocked in court. The stricter abortion ban could be enacted if the 1973 law is repealed.
Mr. Ryan says that Mr. Vance takes the most extreme view against abortion and is outright opposed to the procedure even in cases of rape or incest.
The Ryan campaign, which has its eyes on suburban voters and women in particular, is running an ad citing a September interview in which Mr Vance said he was opposed to any abortion except in cases where life or the health of the mother is at risk.
“JD Vance wants to eliminate abortion with no exceptions for rape or incest. He says rape is ‘uncomfortable,'” tweeted Mr. Ryan.
Mr Vance didn’t call rape “inconvenient,” but told Spectrum News from Columbus: “It’s not a question of whether a woman should be forced to carry a child, it’s a question of whether a child should be allowed to live despite the circumstances of the birth.” children are somehow uncomfortable or a problem for society.”
In an interview with The Times, Mr Vance said that it is Mr Ryan who takes extreme views on abortion because he supports the process until birth.
“I can accept that there are people who are going to vote for me in Ohio who don’t totally share my views,” Mr. Vance said. “But I think even people who are pro-abortion are not defending abortion until 40 weeks of age. In fact, Tim Ryan’s views on abortion are truly radical. You are completely out of step with the Ohio voters.”
Mr Ryan’s campaign team did not respond to a request for comment on race and abortion.
In a Fox News interview earlier this month, host Bret Baier asked Mr Ryan if he supported “any limits on abortion at any time, late, anything”?
Mr Ryan replied: “Look, you’ll have to leave it to the woman.”
Karen Beckwith, a political scientist at Case Western Reserve University in Cleveland, said the Supreme Court’s abortion ruling “could serve to increase voter turnout among those who believe abortion should be legal in all or most cases.”
National polls show that most people support abortion early in pregnancy, and many believe the procedure should remain legal later in pregnancy in the event of incest, rape, or health emergencies.
A national poll conducted by the Trafalgar Group in May found that less than 14% of respondents agreed with Mr Vance and were totally opposed to abortion unless the mother’s life is in danger.
The poll found that even fewer respondents, 11.6%, agreed with Mr Ryan’s view that abortion should be entirely a woman’s decision until delivery.
While the abortion issue pits the two candidates against each other, the Ohio economy and jobs are at the heart of both campaigns.
The state continues to shed thousands of higher-paying manufacturing jobs due to plant closures and relocations, even as job vacancies outstrip those employed in other sectors.
In April, an automotive components plant in Kettering announced its closure, in part due to high steel prices. The plant closure will eliminate more than 600 jobs.
Mr Ryan, who has the support of 26 unions, said if elected he would back investments that would bring manufacturing back to Ohio and create thousands of good-paying jobs.
He has suggested that Mr. Vance gave up on returning production to Ohio.
One of Mr. Ryan’s campaign ads includes a tone from Mr. Vance saying that a middle-aged factory worker in Ohio “may not be able to find a good-paying job for the rest of his working life.”
Mr Vance told the Times that he believed the US should have a strong manufacturing base. Mr Ryan, he said, opposed Mr Trump’s tariffs on imports from China, which Mr Vance said “protected and will continue to protect many manufacturing jobs in this country if they remain in place”.
Mr Vance said he was focused on rising inflation and illegal immigration at the border, which voters told him were their top concerns, “and what appears to be the slow collapse of the American economy”.
Mr Vance will have the benefit of Mr Trump’s support to get GOP voters to the polls in November but said he expects Mr Ryan to surpass him in fundraising.
According to the campaign, Mr. Ryan raised $4.1 million in the first quarter of 2022 and had $6.4 million in cash on hand. Mr. Vance raised $632,000 but enjoyed the support of fellow venture capitalist and billionaire Peter Thiel, who has pledged approximately $13.5 million to a political action committee working on Mr. Vance’s behalf.
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