Remember the old motto: “It’s the economy, stupid.” It was coined in 1992 by James Carville, one of former US President Bill Clinton's campaign strategists. It has become something of a talismanic quote, a basic guide for the average voter and his thoughts on the private voting booth.
Carville had told his team to emphasize the importance of the economy at every opportunity. He even went so far as to hang a sign at campaign headquarters that read, “Economy, Stupid.”
The goal was to overthrow the current White House president, George Bush Sr. Although Bush and his presidency had entered the presidential race with a 90 percent approval rating on the back of a successful military campaign against Saddam Hussein in Iraq, they were hit by a surprise recession.
The U.S. economy had gone into reverse due to several factors, including an oil price shock caused by Iraq's invasion of Kuwait and reduced defense spending as a result of Cold War détente.
The downturn wasn't particularly severe—GDP (gross domestic product) fell 1.5 percent and unemployment rose to nearly 7 percent—but Clinton was able to take advantage of it. “It’s the economy, stupid” became the campaign mantra, and Clinton’s victory made it something of a common sense truism.
[ Five reasons support for Sinn Féin has slumped in the latest poll ]
The extent to which this applies today is controversial.
Current White House incumbent Joe Biden is delivering stronger-than-expected U.S. growth, near full employment and a massive public infrastructure and clean energy investment program that some argue is comparable to Roosevelt's famous New Deal economic plan of the 1930s is, but his poll and approval ratings are on the floor. His likely opponent in the November election, Donald Trump, is doing better with US voters on economic issues.
One could say that Ireland's Fine Gael/Fianna Fáil-led coalition is suffering from a similar malaise.
Although the company experienced a period of record employment growth, more than 350,000 jobs were created between 2019 and 2023; the largest budget surplus (percentage) in Europe; and a series of wasted budgets, the two largest government parties were behind Sinn Féin in the polls.
The accepted narrative is that Sinn Féin's high profile comes from appealing to young and middle-aged voters who feel left behind in a booming economy or find themselves on the wrong side of the housing divide.
Exit polls from the last general election confirmed that housing and health took precedence over traditional factors such as taxes, jobs and general economic performance.
However, the gap between Sinn Féin and the other two major parties, previously as high as 16 points, has narrowed significantly in recent months, according to three recent opinion polls, including the latest Irish Times/Ipsos poll.
Could it be that the government's poor poll numbers – despite the obvious strength of the labor market – are due to cost of living pressures?
“Unless you get a better-paying job or a big raise — which is not the case for most consumers — the benefits of a strong labor market are not as tangible as rapidly rising prices,” says economist Austin Hughes.
“Although overall household incomes in 'real' terms have held up reasonably well, this ignores the fact that the number of households has increased significantly in recent years, meaning that, according to my rough estimates, the average household is about 5 percent worse off provided,” he says.
“For a significant group of consumers, the experience of a decline in living standards due to a sustained increase in the cost of living was a new and very painful phenomenon,” he says.
Sinn Féin poll slump: “The tide is not over for them yet”
Perhaps Carville's maxim still applies then. Cost of living issues have drowned out the government's performance in other areas. Now that it is subsiding, the gap between government and opposition is narrowing. As the election approaches, Sinn Féin's own economic policy may also come into focus.
The problem with this interpretation is that the polls do not show any significant increase in the number of ruling parties. The only significant change appears to be a decline in support for Sinn Féin.
Aside from Biden's age and conspicuous frailty, the other big problem in the US is immigration, an issue that is now rocking Irish politics. Could Sinn Féin's voter base be more vulnerable to a sudden shift in public opinion on immigration?
Party leader Mary Lou McDonald's submission of a motion of no confidence in the Dáil against Justice Minister Helen McEntee and the Garda Commissioner in response to the riots in Dublin was also seen in some quarters as a political move.
But much of the legitimate concern about immigration stems from strained public services and housing shortages – Sinn Féin's traditional political fears – and it is hard to imagine this will play a major role in the election.
Many voters see Ireland's GDP-driven economy as an abstraction, divorced from their own circumstances.
It must be annoying to hear that you live in the fastest growing economy in Europe when your salary doesn't allow you to rent a basic house in the capital, let alone take out a mortgage.
Voters may have become accustomed to Ireland's macroeconomic strength and now want better quality public services, or at least public services commensurate with our bulging GDP. Maybe it's the microeconomics rather than the macroeconomics, stupid.
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