The closer we get to the election, the harder it becomes to explain the polls on any material basis. The main explanation for President Joe Biden's disastrous polling was that voters believe the economy has been bad. But as the economy continues to get better, his poll numbers have continued to get terrible or even worse.
In my opinion, the best response to this situation is for Biden to be positive about his economic policies.
Last year, Biden released the slogan “Bidenomics” to sell his program. The Democrats were furious. Didn't Biden know that the economic situation was unpopular? Why does he associate himself with something that people don't like? Biden has accordingly stopped using that slogan and has scaled back economic issues in favor of attacks on Trump's fitness and an emphasis on abortion rights.
These are important topics. But it's very hard for a president to win re-election if voters think the economy is bad.
That the economy is in such fantastic shape makes it all the more bizarre that Biden is facing this dilemma. It's true that inflation skyrocketed in the first two years of his presidency, and voters apparently haven't forgiven him for that. Countless analyzes have looked at the seemingly fatal effects of inflation on the psyche of voters.
But inflation has fallen back to pre-COVID-19 levels. Interest rates will remain high, at least for now. Meanwhile, almost everything else about the economy remains fantastic. Wages are growing much faster than price levels (which was not the case earlier during Biden's term). They grow faster among low-income earners than among wealthy people. The unemployment rate is at an all-time low.
It may be that voters decide that the rise in COVID inflation is more important to them than anything else happening in the economy. But there is no universal political law that says inflation is the only economic fact that matters to people, and people who are angry about inflation will continue to be angry even after inflation ends.
During Donald Trump's first term, it was common for analysts to explain his surprise victory by the slow recovery from the 2008 financial crisis or the long-standing stagnation of working-class wages. Working class wages are currently sizzling. So it seems strange that inflation is now the only explanation for public opinion. Additionally, Trump has been able to evade blame for economic and social conditions in 2020 because he has argued that it was all due to the pandemic. Biden should try to explain why the rise in global inflation is not his fault.
Perhaps public opinion is malleable and persistent efforts to educate and persuade the public can make progress. Biden has plenty of material to work with. He signed legislation lowering the cost of prescription drugs, making health insurance cheaper and funding new factories and infrastructure. Donald Trump's plan is to raise taxes on the working and middle classes (via a gigantic tariff) and lower them on the rich.
It's possible that none of this will work. But for now, while there is still plenty of time to change things, Biden's campaign is in a difficult state. His biggest advantage may be that he continues to hurt him. That's what he needs to change.
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