Laura Merrifield Wilson
Recently filled up at the pump? Then you may have noticed that historically high prices have fallen back to seemingly more reasonable prices. Central Indiana gas, which was once $5.25, has fallen to $3.88. The timing isn’t great for travelers arriving when school starts again and family vacation time ends. It’s still a welcome change in an economy that has struggled to lower costs for working Americans, much to the chagrin of the president and his policies.
President Joe Biden has been regularly criticized for the economy’s rising inflation (like gas prices rising from historic highs) and housing market pressures. Unemployment has been so low for so long that it barely makes the headlines, falling to just 3.5% in July. The economic trade-off, it seems, is the rise in consumer prices, which has forced even the less cautious to buy with a little more thought. July brought the CPI up 8.5%, cooler than June’s 40-year high of 9.1%, but little consolation for those pinching their nickels for what used to cost them pennies Has. (For historical comparison, annual inflation has averaged 2.3% over the past three decades.)
Longstanding concerns about inflation linked to gas prices and the housing market have clouded Biden’s presidency as he rounds out the first half of his term. Sure, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates (four times this year!) to mitigate the impact, but prices have risen so much they seem impossible to ignore. The issue could wreak havoc on Democrats this November, but such a blanket assumption would miss several important nuances in American politics.
Recession?
First, it’s almost a moot point whether or not our country is headed for a recession. In order to technically qualify, we must experience six months of economic downturn. Rising inflation and higher interest rates lead many to believe it’s not “if” but “when.” Even if there are signs of an economic downturn, the political impact could be negligible. Political behavior is based not only on truths but on framing and point of view. Objective reality is subordinate to subjective perception. When you think things are going well, they are going well. If you think they aren’t, then at least to you they aren’t.
When making economic choices, the importance of perception can be highlighted by whether one is assessing the overall economic health of the country or one’s own personal financial situation. Sociotropic voting is based on the view of the national economy, while paperback voting focuses on individual experience. Retrospective economic vote evaluates the work of the current government. As then-presidential candidate Ronald Reagan suggested to voters in a 1980 debate against incumbent Jimmy Carter, “Are you better off today than you were four years ago?” (The slogan resonated with many Americans, and voters echoed their displeasure just a week later a resounding “no”.)
All these factors are then subject to prioritization. While researchers have found that voters punish an incumbent for the bad times and praise them for the good ones, the complexity of different issues and policies makes even this assessment challenging. With the passage of Indiana’s controversial abortion law, social issues could eclipse individuals’ preference to vote based on economics. And whether a voter tops either the most prominent wedge issue of our generation or the most economically stressful times our nation has experienced in over a decade remains to be seen.
One thing is certain: voters are responding to prominent issues that they consider relevant and important in their lives. Voters should not lack motivation to participate in the elections, however they cast their ballots in the midterm congressional elections.
James Carville once roared, “It’s the economy, fool!” in a powerful appeal to get the macroeconomic implications across to individual voters. With the rapid inflation that has characterized 2022 so far, one might even be foolish and realize the importance of the economy. It’s just a question of whether that’s the deciding factor in their vote.
Laura Merrifield Wilson is an associate professor of political science and a columnist at the Indiana Capital Chronicle.
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