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China’s parliament — the National People’s Congress — is convening for the first time since the end of Covid Zero to hear the country’s top leaders plan to restart the country’s growth engine. Then the approximately 3,000 MPs will – no surprise – solemnly approve everything proposed. Still, the annual session is worth watching as it provides an opportunity to see China’s future leaders in action. Li Qiang, who is poised to become premier and already number two in the Communist Party after President Xi Jinping, and incoming foreign minister Qin Gang may even meet the press. The meeting at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing begins on Sunday and is expected to last about a week.
1. What’s on the agenda?
Last year’s Covid outbreaks and restrictions ended abruptly after controls hit economic growth, burst the budget and sparked a wave of anti-lockdown protests. Even after reopening, there are still lingering effects of hurt investor sentiment, weakened consumer confidence and isolation from the rest of the world. The NPC will review government performance and listen to the economic and political goals set for the year to support the recovery. Crucially, the legislature is expected to formally appoint new officials to government posts, including the prime minister, deputy prime ministers and other business and financial leaders, including market regulators, in the closing days of the session. The NPC runs alongside the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, an advisory body made up of party delegates and people from the arts, business and legal communities. Together they are known as the Lianghui, or “Two Sessions”.
2. Why are the personnel changes important this year?
After filling the top ranks of the party with his allies at a twice-decade congress last October, Xi is considered the most powerful Chinese leader since Mao Zedong. The likely appointment of more of his clique to high posts is raising concerns about a lack of voices at the top of power willing or able to challenge the leader. It could also mean a further blurring of the line between state and party.
3. Who is likely for the new cast?
Premier Li Keqiang and Vice Premier Liu He are expected to be succeeded by Xi allies Li Qiang and He Lifeng, respectively. The prime minister has traditionally played an important economic role, overseeing all government ministries, including the central bank, although the influence of this role has waned under Xi. The Deputy Prime Minister is responsible for economic policy. The NPC will also appoint the governor of the central bank and the finance minister. People’s Bank of China governor Yi Gang is widely expected to step down, while veteran banker Zhu Hexin may take his place. China is also poised to appoint regulator veterans known for their tough campaigns against financial misconduct as new chiefs of the country’s banking and securities regulators, Bloomberg News reported.
4. What is the rest of the agenda?
The National People’s Congress will vote on an amendment to the law that regulates the legislative process and system, and will consider reports from the Supreme Court, the Chief Prosecutor and the Supreme Legislative Committee. In addition, it is likely to vote on a plan to reshape party and government institutions, which will be debated in advance during a party plenary session.
5. What does institutional change mean?
China’s institutions were last overhauled in 2018 to consolidate the Party’s power and give Xi more direct control of the country. Changes included a merger of the country’s insurance and banking regulators, expanding central bank authority, and an international development agency for Xi’s pet project, the Belt and Road Initiative. There are already signs that Xi could increase his influence once again. Authorities plan to revive a powerful fiscal policy coordination committee.
6. What are the new government’s priorities?
Topping the list is helping the economy recover from last year’s doldrums, when Covid, a real estate downturn and a broad crackdown on private technology and education companies pushed growth to the second-worst level since the 1970s. Now that Covid controls have been dropped, Beijing wants to stabilize the property market and prevent it from triggering a crisis in the banking sector or local governments, which rely on land sales for much of their income. With global demand for Chinese goods slowing and US tech sanctions mounting, authorities are also trying to boost domestic investment and consumption. In the longer term, China will find ways to reduce income inequality, increase productivity to lessen the impact of a shrinking population, improve national security, and make the nation more self-sufficient.
7. What lies ahead for Xi?
challenges remain. His government’s credibility was damaged by the drastic Covid Zero reversal and citizens felt more empowered to speak out. The economic recovery from Covid reopening has been lopsided, despite a rapid recovery in mobility and demand for services, as weak property sales and exports continue to weigh on the industry. Externally, China’s tensions with the US have escalated following the uproar over a Chinese balloon, while its partnership with Russia is increasingly costly on a global scale.
8. How will this compare to the last NPCs?
This year’s NPC is part of a wider show about the country’s return to normal after three years of strict virus rules. It starts on March 5th, the default date, compared to 2020 when the NPC was pushed back to May because of the pandemic. This year’s meeting is expected to last more than a week as usual. NPCs in 2020, 2021 and 2022 have been shortened and only held for one week.
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