Mon, June 26, 2023
In EIU’s July 2023 Global Outlook video, Agathe Demarais and Kate Parker discuss the outlook for the UK economy.
Although UK inflation is falling, at just under 9% yoy it is still above the average in Europe and other major economies – and although GDP grew in April, it was only marginal growth. The Bank of England (BoE, the central bank) remains focused on curbing inflation and is likely to continue raising interest rates well into the third (and maybe even fourth) quarter of the year, although it risks doing so the economy kicks into recession.
In addition, heightened investor caution has seen two-year government bond yields surge above 5% – higher than during the period of September and October 2022 volatility surrounding the fiscal expansionary “mini-budget”. Higher government bond yields lead to subsequent problems, not only for the state due to more expensive borrowing, but also for the real estate market
“While there are similar trends of high inflation and low growth in other major economies, this has not been quite as pronounced as in the UK and the rest of Europe.” Overall, Q1 data for the G20 economies are significantly better.”
Kate Parker, Senior Analyst, EIU
The analyzes and forecasts presented in this article can be found in the EIU country analysis service. This integrated solution provides unmatched global insight into the political and economic outlook for nearly 200 countries, enabling companies to identify potential opportunities and potential threats.
Mon 26 Jun 2023Article tags economyforecastukcountry analysis
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