FILE – Sunrise at the US Capitol, Monday, December 19, 2022 in Washington. Matt Rourke/` Hide caption
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Matt Rourke/`
FILE – Sunrise at the US Capitol, Monday, December 19, 2022 in Washington.
Matt Rourke/`
According to the latest NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll, the economy continues to dominate as the country’s top concern, followed by democracy preservation.
Democrats face vulnerabilities when it comes to the economy, crime and whether to ban TikTok, while Republicans risk violating transgender rights and business practices, the poll found.
“The Republican Party’s image has become even more extreme than it was before the 2020 election,” said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute of Public Opinion, which conducted the poll. “If winning the 2024 election depends on winning some swing voters in the middle, they’re moving in the opposite direction.
“For the Democrats, as much as the progressive wing allows President Biden some freedom to move toward the center, look at the issues of the economy and crime, and he’s not where he wants to be when it comes to either to set the center .”
The survey of 1,327 adults, including 1,226 registered voters, was conducted March 20 through Thursday, March 23 via live phone callers to mobile and landline phones, online research panels and text messaging in English and Spanish. It has a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points, meaning the results have a range of about 4 points below or above the reported number.
The country’s most important problems
With inflation stubbornly high and interest rates rising, there is currently plenty of economic uncertainty, which remains the top issue for respondents – 31% said so, followed by preserving democracy (20%).
No other problem broke double digits. Healthcare was third at 9%, followed by immigration and climate change at 8%. Crime, gun policy, abortion and education rounded off the topics that were surveyed.
Political priorities are expected to vary by party – with Republicans and Independents more focused on the economy and Democrats saying preserving democracy comes first, followed by the economy, health care and climate change.
Immigration and the preservation of democracy followed the economy for Republicans.
Biden struggles with the economy and crime
When it comes to the economy, Biden continues to get bad grades.
Only 38% agree how he is dealing with it, including just 28% of independents. White House strategists and Democrats know that Biden, who is expected to run for re-election, needs to improve his view of Americans on the economy in the next year and a half before the 2024 election.
Overall, Biden gets a 42% job approval rating. That’s pretty much how it was prior to his State of the Union address in February. An NPR poll this month conducted by Biden’s address showed he got a slight bounce. That seems to have gone down.
When it comes to crime, Biden is particularly vulnerable. Only 35% agree with how he is dealing with it, including just 27% of independents. There is also a lack of support from some key Democratic coalition groups, such as non-whites (37%) and those under 45 (34%).
Although crime continues not to rank as a top issue in polls, most people, at 68% versus 31%, said it is a real threat to most communities and not an issue that politicians exaggerate will attract voters.
That includes 58% of Democrats and 7 in 10 Independents. Notably, non-whites, who are a mainstay Democratic group, are among those most likely to say it’s a real threat. That aligns with several core groups critical to the political fortunes of former President Donald Trump — whites with no college degrees, white evangelical Christians, and people living in small towns.
Republicans have focused on rising crime and brazen acts like smash-and-grabs and carjacking in major cities across the country.
Republicans vulnerable to transgender rights and business practices
Republican governors, legislatures and candidates across the country have focused on issues of gender identity, something they see as a key political issue.
There is some evidence for this – for example, in the 2022 Midterm Exit Polls, 50% of respondents said society’s values around gender identity and sexual orientation are changing for the worse.
And support for the criminalization of underage medical care related to sex reassignment surgery has increased from 28% in April 2021 to 43% now. Almost two-thirds of Republicans support it.
But Republicans risk going too far. A majority, 54%, remains opposed to the criminalization of this type of healthcare, including 56% of the self-employed.
There is also a large gap between parents of children under 18 and those without children – 59% of parents support criminalizing the practice, while 59% of non-parents oppose it.
Additionally, a majority of respondents said they oppose laws that would restrict drag shows or performances in their states. Earlier this month, Tennessee passed legislation to do just that, while more than a dozen other states have GOP efforts underway to do the same.
But the majority is not on their side – 58% oppose such legislation. Republicans also stand out from the majority in another respect, with 61% supporting these bills. Only a quarter of Democrats and fewer than 4 in 10 independents do so.
The same is true of socially conscious business practices.
Three-quarters said it was more important to invest their money in companies that make money but also pay attention to their business practices and impact on the environment and society, rather than investing in companies that still make the most money.
As much as 63% of Republicans said they would rather invest in companies that are aware of their impact on the environment and society. Many in the GOP have bugged corporate ESG (environmental, social and governance) and DEI (diversity, equity and inclusion) practices.
For example, some Republicans blamed these practices for the recent collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank, when in fact the bank’s collapse was the result of bad investments, rising interest rates and depositors demanding their money back.
Younger people in particular believe in universal healthcare
Despite the country’s patchwork health care system, 83% said they believe all Americans have a basic right to health insurance. Among them are 7 out of 10 Republicans.
The difference of opinion stems from the intensity of that belief—and thus, who provides it.
Three-fourths of Democrats and 61% of independents totally agree health care is a fundamental right, compared to just a quarter of Republicans.
When asked if people think it’s the federal government’s responsibility to make sure all Americans have health insurance, nearly two-thirds say yes. This includes 9 out of 10 Democrats, a majority (57%) of Independents, but only a third of Republicans.
While ‘government’ continues to be the brightest dividing line in this country, the generation gap on this issue also stands out. Three-quarters of Gen Z and Millennials say government is to blame, but only 60% of Gen X do, followed by 56% of Baby Boomers and 49% of the Silent/Greatest Generation.
The result is another example of how younger Americans are more likely to want the government to intervene in austerity measures, like raising taxes on the wealthy to reduce the national debt and raising the minimum wage to $15 an hour.
The clock is ticking on TikTok, but there is a risk for Biden
A majority of Americans support a ban on popular social media app TikTok – 57% said so.
Three-quarters said TikTok poses either a major or minor threat to national security. And it’s bipartisan — 7 in 10 Democrats and 8 in 10 Republicans agree, though Republicans see TikTok as more of a major threat.
There’s a generational split here, which is to be expected given that younger Americans are more likely to use the app. Gen Z and Millennials, while divided, are less likely to support a ban and see it far less as a national security threat.
Fifty-one percent of Gen Z/Millennials oppose banning TikTok, the most of any group, and only 27 percent see it as a major threat, the least of any group.
Biden has a precarious decision to make when it comes to TikTok. Before his expected run for re-election, he must weigh whether to ban something that the intelligence community clearly sees as a potential national security risk — or refine something less than a ban to stem the potential loss of support for a key demographic living on the internet.
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