Economic Forecast 2023: An optimistic look at the US economy in the new year | Jax Daily Record | Jacksonville daily record

The US economy could slip into recession in 2023 and inflation remains an issue.

However, Jacksonville is starting the new year relatively well.

“Jacksonville’s economy is expected to perform significantly better than the nation as a whole,” said University of North Florida economist Albert Loh.

“According to the latest data release, the Jacksonville MSA has an extremely low unemployment rate and rising wages, indicating healthy personal finances,” he said.

Albert Loh

The Jacksonville-area unemployment rate in Baker, Clay, Duval, Nassau, and St. Johns counties fell to 2.2% in April 2022, the lowest level recorded in state data from 1990.

Unemployment remained low throughout the year, with the latest report showing a rate of 2.5% in October.

According to data through October, Jacksonville’s average hourly wages rose 7.6% this year to $32.71.

“Recent expansion in the region’s advanced manufacturing, fintech, transportation and logistics sectors will create many important jobs and lay the foundation for a strong local job market and economic growth,” Loh said.

At a JAXUSA partnership quarterly luncheon on Nov. 30, JAXUSA Chairman Tom VanOsdol said Northeast Florida had announced 19 business expansions this year, adding 2,330 jobs.

This is just the tip of the job creation iceberg.

Nonfarm businesses in the Jacksonville area added 35,700 jobs to their payrolls from October 2021 to October 2022, a growth rate of 4.8%.

Industry sectors with significant increases included administration and support and waste services with a net increase of 7,600 jobs, education and health services with 4,800, professional, scientific and technical services with 4,700, and finance and insurance with 2,600.

Accommodation and food services posted the largest gains, adding 8,200 jobs, as these businesses continue to recover from the 2020 coronavirus pandemic shutdowns.

VanOsdol, Ascension’s executive vice president and chief mission officer, cited another industry that is gaining momentum.

“Jacksonville has become a cold storage hotbed,” he said.

The only major industrial sector losing jobs is construction, which fell around 900 as rising interest rates slow new construction.

Loh thinks a “short and mild recession” is inevitable in 2023 as the Federal Reserve Board keeps interest rates high to try to lower inflation.

“But it (a mild recession) would undoubtedly be much better than runaway inflation, which can lead to prolonged erosion of personal and business finances,” he said.

Loh said the US economy has been “stubbornly resilient” as interest rates have risen this year, making him bullish on 2023.

“The unemployment rate will rise but remain in a low range. The US economy should still show positive year-over-year growth, albeit likely modestly,” he said.

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