Forget the work-from-home revolution or quitting quietly: The biggest impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the US labor market will be a mass disability event. It’s a shock for which the economy is not well prepared.
An estimated 1 in 4 COVID patients experience symptoms for months. In principle, not everyone should have to retire. First, they should be able to call in sick. If work-disabling symptoms persist for more than a week or two, they should be able to apply for short-time work or apply for short-term disability benefits. It should only be necessary to switch to disability insurance in severe cases lasting several months or longer.
Unfortunately, it doesn’t work that way in practice. Almost a quarter of US private workers cannot take paid sick leave. More than half do not have access to short-term disability insurance and those who do are struggling to have long-term COVID claims approved. Affected workers have the right to request workplace accommodations such as part-time schedules, but employers have wide latitude to reject such requests as inappropriate.
Retaining a job is also not guaranteed. According to the rules at will, employees can be fired for lack of work, even if it is due to illness (rather than disability). Although federal law guarantees up to 12 weeks of job protection for those who are sick or caring for a newborn or a critically ill family member, it only covers those who have been on the payroll for 12 months — which was just 56% in 2018 . of workers.
All of this adds up to a large potential impact on the nation’s manufacturing capacity. Estimates based on census data suggest that COVID has long kept up to 4 million working-age adults out of work — about the number of disabled veterans in the US. There is no evidence that the number of affected workers is decreasing as recovery progresses: for example, the proportion of workers who are officially ill or work part-time due to illness continues to rise.
More COVID is coming, both short and long. The Centers for Disease Control estimates 300,000 new cases a week, and hospital admissions are picking up again. People keep getting sick for reasons beyond their control. And in the absence of policies in the US — including universal access to paid sick leave, short-term disability, job protections, and part-time housing — many will lose income and jobs, or drop out of the labor force altogether. Given the challenges the economy is already facing, it’s a loss the country can hardly afford.
Kathryn Anne Edwards is an economist at Rand Corp. and Professor at Pardee Rand Graduate School. This column does not necessarily represent the opinion of the editors or of Bloomberg LP and its owners.
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