- Curbs condemn world No. 2 economy to weakest result in nearly 50 years
- 390,000 train passengers in the holiday flight in Shanghai on Tuesday
- Domestic flights at more than 80% of pre-COVID levels
- Fears of COVID spread; WHO is pushing for more complete mortality data
SHANGHAI, Jan 17 (Reuters) – Municipal workers packed train stations in China’s biggest cities on Tuesday as travel for the Lunar New Year holiday kicked into high gear, an early sign of an economic recovery as officials predicted a slump due to COVID-19 outbreaks curbs confirmed.
The world’s second-largest economy slowed sharply in the fourth quarter, data showed Tuesday, pushing growth in 2022 to one of its worst performances in nearly half a century after three years of COVID restrictions and lockdowns.
As mass travel for the Lunar New Year is possible for the first time in nearly three years after some of the world’s toughest COVID curbs were eased, the economy will benefit as hundreds of thousands of people spend more every day as they return to China’s hinterland.
While many analysts say a return to economic normalcy will be gradual as the impact of COVID begins to weaken, some are seeing the Lunar New Year as a welcome early surge in consumption.
“Infections peaked in January in major cities, and with the approaching Spring Festival, tourism has returned and signs of a recovery in consumption are evident,” said Nie Wen, a Shanghai-based economist with investment firm Hwabao Trust.
But with so many people fleeing, health experts fear a worsening of the COVID outbreak, leaving elderly people in rural villages particularly vulnerable.
Although authorities on Saturday confirmed a huge spike in deaths and announced that nearly 60,000 people had died in hospitals with COVID between December 8 and January 12, officials at the World Health Organization (WHO) are seeking greater account of death rates.
The WHO previously welcomed Saturday’s announcement after warning last week that China was heavily underreporting deaths from the virus.
Reuters reported on Tuesday that doctors in both public and private hospitals were actively discouraged from attributing deaths to COVID.
Specifically, the UN agency wants information on so-called excess mortality – the number of all deaths outside the norm during a crisis, the WHO said in a statement.
“This is particularly important in times of surges when the healthcare system is severely restricted,” it said.
The WHO added that it will continue to work with China to provide advice and assistance, but has yet to arrange another formal meeting with Chinese officials after WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus met Ma Xiaowei, director of the National Health Commission, over the weekend China, had spoken.
RISK BUT OPTIMISM
The Department of Transportation estimates the rush will generate a total of 2.1 billion passenger trips nationwide between Jan. 7 and Feb. 15, as many city dwellers take their first chance for Lunar New Year travel to see extended families in their home regions since the pandemic started.
Chinese officials ditched Beijing’s “zero-COVID” policy — an approach previously championed by ruling Communist Party leader Xi Jinping — in early December, allowing the virus to run unchecked across its population of 1.4 billion .
Those harsh policies have further damaged the demographic prospects of China, which is now at the brink of an historic decline, with government figures released Tuesday showing the population has fallen for the first time in six decades.
State media reported that around 390,000 passengers would travel from Shanghai train stations on Tuesday alone for the so-called Spring Festival — believed to be the world’s largest annual pre-COVID mass migration.
As travelers passed through train stations in Shanghai, China’s largest city, some voiced optimism despite the risks.
“I’m not worried about the virus. Since we are young, our immunity is fine,” 37-year-old migrant worker Zhou Ning told Reuters outside Shanghai railway station as he prepared to return to his hometown in Bazhong, in China’s northeastern Sichuan province.
“Back in my hometown, there are a lot of people who have tested positive, but I’m not worried about that.”
On a train leaving Shanghai, fellow migrant worker Feng Hongwei, 21, said he was “so happy, so excited” as he made his way home to Puyang, Henan. “I haven’t seen my parents for two years”.
The holiday season has also sparked a revival in domestic air travel, with more than 70,000 flights through China between Jan. 7 and 13, according to industry data reported by Shanghai Securities News on Monday. That’s more than 80% of pre-pandemic levels.
Reporting by Shanghai Newsroom and Joe Cash, Martin Quin Pollard and Bernard Orr in Beijing; Additional reporting by Jennifer Rigby in London and Emma Farge in Geneva; writing by Greg Torode; Edited by Kenneth Maxwell and Angus MacSwan
Our standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
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