Even as growth stalls in China, Xi Jinping appears imperiously confident that he has the right roadmap to outperform his Western rivals.
China's economy has slowed down. The population is shrinking and aging. Its rival, the United States, has gained a lead in artificial intelligence. Mr. Xi's statement a few years ago that “the East was on the rise and the West was declining” — that his country was on the rise while American power was declining — now seems premature, if not downright presumptuous.
The problems have led to growing rumors abroad that China may be reaching its peak before fully becoming a superpower. But Mr. Xi appears unwavering in his insistence that his policies, which include broad party control and state-led industrial investment in new sectors such as electric vehicles and semiconductors, can ensure China's rise.
Reflecting that confidence, his government announced last week that China's economy is likely to grow by about 5 percent this year, according to official statistics, about the same pace as last year. And Mr. Xi stressed his ambitions for a new phase of industrial growth driven by innovation, acting as if the last year or two of setbacks were an aberration.
“Faced with a technological revolution and industrial transformation, we must seize the opportunity,” he told delegates at China's annual legislative session in Beijing, who gave him a rousing applause on television.
He later told another group during the legislative session that China must “win the battle for key technologies” and called on People's Liberation Army officers to build “strategic capabilities in emerging areas,” which the officers said included artificial intelligence heard , cyber operations and space technology.
Mr. Xi's optimistic attitude may be partly just for show: Like politicians everywhere else, Chinese leaders are reluctant to admit mistakes. And some officials have privately admitted that the economic woes are dampening China's ambitions and swagger, at least for now.
Ryan Hass, the director of the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution, who visited China late last year, said he felt that “the Chinese themselves are a little embarrassed compared to the situation a year ago. “The development in which China’s economy will overtake America’s in the coming years – that has moved further into the future.”
Still, Mr. Xi's determination to stick to his long-term ambitions appears to be more than just a show. “Xi and his team still believe that time and momentum remain on China’s side,” said Mr. Hass, a former China director at the U.S. National Security Council. “With Xi in power,” he added, it is hard to imagine “a significant recalibration of China’s overall development.”
Since taking office in 2012, Mr. Xi has increased the Communist Party's influence over Chinese society. He has expanded state management of the economy, expanded the security apparatus to stamp out potential challenges to party rule and confronted Washington over technology, Taiwan and other disputes.
For Mr. Xi's critics, his centralizing and hardline tendencies are part of China's problems. He did not cause China's risky growth dependence on the real estate market, but rather worked to end it. But many economists argue he has been too heavy-handed and has stifled business and innovation. Critics argue that Mr. Xi has also unnecessarily angered Western governments, prompting them to restrict access to technology and deepen security ties with Washington.
Since last year, the Chinese government has taken measures to ease these pressures. It has taken steps to restore confidence among private companies. Mr. Xi has also sought to ease tensions with the United States and other countries.
Such moderating gestures illustrate what Mr. Xi has called the “tactical flexibility” he expects from Chinese officials in difficult times. But even as officials implement easing measures, Xi said they must stick to his long-term goals. He and his loyal subordinates have defended his policies in speeches and editorials, suggesting that the doubters are short-sighted. Chinese officials and academics have also stepped up criticism of Western analysts who have predicted that China is facing an era of decline.
Mr. Xi has stressed that economic and security priorities must work hand in hand, even as China struggles with slower growth. Mr Xi is also betting that investments in manufacturing and technology can deliver new “high-quality” growth through expanding industries such as new clean energy and electric vehicles.
The Chinese leadership's “mantra seems to be, 'We won't grow as fast as we used to, but we will gain more influence over trading partners by controlling critical parts of the global economy,'” said Michael Beckley, an associate professor at from Tufts University, who has argued that China is a “top power,” that is, a country whose economic rise has slowed but not yet stopped.
Some economists argue that China's progress in these select sectors will not be enough to offset the burden caused by declining consumer confidence and the debt burden of developers and local governments. China's overall fate will depend heavily on whether Xi's bet on technology can pay off.
“They see technology as a solution to every problem they face — economic, environmental, demographic, social,” said Nadège Rolland, a researcher at the National Bureau of Asian Research who studies China’s strategic thinking. “If they cannot make sufficient progress in this area, it will be very difficult for them.”
Scholars in China and abroad hoping that the country might take a more liberal path sometimes look to history for examples of when party leaders made bold changes to defuse domestic and international tensions.
The last time China was involved in such a painful confrontation was after the crackdown on pro-democracy protesters on June 4, 1989. The bloodshed prompted Western countries to impose sanctions on China, deepening the economic shock. Within a few years, however, Deng Xiaoping, then Chinese leader, sought to restore ties with Washington and other capitals, triggering market changes that revived growth and lured back Western investors.
But now China faces much more entrenched opposition from other major powers, Zhu Feng, a prominent foreign policy scholar at Nanjing University in eastern China, said in an interview. For example, China's rising exports of electric cars – which have benefited from large government subsidies – could reignite trade tensions as the United States, Japan and Europe fear loss of jobs and industrial strength.
The economic and diplomatic tensions are “the biggest challenge for China in decades,” Professor Zhu said.
Yet Chinese leaders seem to believe that whatever their problems, their Western rivals will face ever-worsening problems that will ultimately humiliate and divide them.
Recent reports from Chinese ruling party, military and state security ministry institutes point to bitter polarization in the United States ahead of the next election. Regardless of who wins, Chinese analysts argue, American power will likely remain plagued by political dysfunction.
Chinese scholars have also focused on fault lines in the Western bloc surrounding Russia's war in Ukraine. Beijing's relations with the United States and European governments have been severely strained because of Mr. Xi's partnership with President Vladimir V. Putin. But as the war enters its third year, the burden of supporting Ukraine is deepening divisions and “fatigue” in the United States and Europe.
“U.S. foreign intervention cannot handle everything it tries to juggle,” Chen Xiangyang, a researcher at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations in Beijing, which is under the State Security Ministry, wrote last year. “China can exploit the contradictions and use them to their advantage.”
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